Cryptos Coming Into Important Levels - November 4, 2025 #shorts

Key Concepts

• Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): A technical analysis tool that calculates the average price of an asset over a specific period, weighted by volume. Anchoring it to a specific event (like an election or a low) provides a reference point for potential support or resistance.
• Year-to-Date (YTD) VWAP: VWAP calculated from the beginning of the current year.
• Simple Moving Average (SMA): A technical indicator that calculates the average price of an asset over a specified number of periods, smoothing out price data.
• Long Position: A trading strategy where an investor buys an asset with the expectation that its price will rise.
• Undercut: A price movement that goes below a previous low.
• Flush: A rapid and significant price drop.
• Bounce: A rapid and significant price increase after a decline.
• Support: A price level where a downtrend is expected to pause due to a concentration of buying interest.
• Resistance: A price level where an uptrend is expected to pause due to a concentration of selling interest.
• Supply: The amount of an asset available for sale.
• Allocation: The distribution of capital among different investments.

Bitcoin Analysis

• Key Observation: The speaker has been pointing to a specific zone (indicated by orange, representing anchored VWAP from an election) as a likely area for Bitcoin to head down to.
• Current Status: Bitcoin has reached and is currently trading below this zone.
• Trading Action: The speaker has purchased a "starter piece" and holds a 30% long position.
• Desired Scenario: The speaker is hoping for Bitcoin to "undercut" the previous low from May, which was around 98. This "flush below there" is anticipated to trigger a "violent bounce."
• Current Position: "It's still not there yet." Larger bids are placed closer to the 98 level.

Ethereum Analysis

• Key Observation: Similar to Bitcoin, the speaker has been circling a specific zone for Ethereum, using multiple VWAP anchors (year-to-date, election, April low) and the 200-day SMA as reference points.
• Current Status: None of the identified technical indicators are currently providing support for Ethereum.
• Trading Action: The speaker has "scaled in slowly" with multiple purchases:
  • One unit at 3380
  • One unit at 3250
  • Two units at 3130
  • This results in an average cost of 3222.
• Desired Scenario: The speaker hopes for a flush below 3,000 overnight, followed by a bounce.
• Targeted Bounce: The anticipated bounce is expected to reach around 3500.

Solana Analysis

• Key Observation: Solana had previously found consistent buying interest along a specific anchor. The speaker has traded this asset previously but not the last move.
• Current Status: Solana has broken through its previous anchor and is now trading below the anchor from the beginning of its larger move in late 2023. This anchor is "not holding."
• Outlook: The speaker views Solana as "the broken one." Even if a bounce occurs, there is a "natural source of supply" identified around 175ish, which is expected to act as resistance.
• Trading Decision: Due to the current technical weakness and supply concerns, the speaker is "sticking strictly to Bitcoin and Ethereum right now."

Investment Preference and Allocation

• Current Focus: The speaker is currently focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• Favorite Asset: Ethereum is considered the "favorite."
• Capital Allocation: More money is being allocated towards Ethereum compared to Bitcoin.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The speaker is employing a strategy of scaling into positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating further downside before a significant bounce. For Bitcoin, the target is to undercut the May low around 98 to trigger a strong upward move. For Ethereum, the goal is a flush below 3,000 to initiate a bounce towards 3500, with the speaker having already established an average cost of 3222. Solana is currently viewed as a "broken" asset with significant supply resistance, leading the speaker to avoid it and focus capital on Ethereum, which is preferred over Bitcoin. The analysis relies heavily on anchored VWAP and moving averages to identify potential support and resistance levels.