CRYPTO and STOCKS ‼️ (FED HAS CHANGED EVERYTHING)

Key Concepts

• Fed Policy and Market Impact: The Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decisions, particularly statements from Jerome Powell, significantly influence market sentiment and asset prices. Hawkish statements (indicating potential interest rate hikes or no cuts) can lead to market downturns, while dovish statements (indicating potential rate cuts) can lead to rallies.
• Technical Analysis: The video heavily relies on technical analysis, using chart patterns like "head and shoulders" and support/resistance levels to predict price movements.
• Risk Management: The speaker emphasizes the importance of taking profits and reducing risk ("derisking") when market conditions become uncertain or unfavorable, even if it means going against popular sentiment.
• Day Trading vs. Long-Term Investing: The speaker differentiates between day trading, where quick profits can be made regardless of overall market direction, and long-term investing, which requires careful consideration of macroeconomic factors.
• Government Shutdown and Market Uncertainty: The ongoing government shutdown and the approaching November 1st deadline are identified as significant sources of market uncertainty, potentially leading to further price drops if not resolved.
• Discord Community and Trading Education: The speaker promotes their Discord community as a valuable resource for learning technical trading, receiving trade alerts, and participating in live trading sessions.

Major Crypto Market Moves and Speaker's Strategy

The speaker begins by acknowledging significant volatility in the crypto space and addresses the recent decision of "Mo" to sell all his crypto, sparking debate about its correctness. The speaker then highlights the success of their day trading session, achieving a four-digit gain and remaining undefeated. They express gratitude to members of their Discord community for sharing their wins, including Acemaster, Crystal, Jose (33% up), Zebulon, CJ, Lee, Bowlinger, Henraco, Ibe, Mr. Turbo, Kaden Knight, Billy, and Lambo.

The speaker promotes their Discord membership, offering a 50% discount with code "FALL50" for the "Earned tier," which includes 36 learning lessons, access to expert traders, trade alerts, charts, and live stream training with thousands of members. They assert that their community is making the "right moves."

Portfolio Performance and Risk Mitigation

The speaker reveals their personal portfolio is down $1,600 due to a market crash, but this loss is offset by gains from day trading. They explain that they liquidated almost everything yesterday due to fear of the market's reaction to the Fed's policy changes, which they had previously discussed in two videos.

Key Argument: "When everyone is greedy, you need to be fearful." This principle guided their decision to sell.

Supporting Evidence: The speaker points to Jerome Powell's statements, specifically his ad-libbed remark about a "foregone conclusion" for a Fed cut in December being less certain than people thought. This hawkish tone, the speaker argues, signaled a shift.

Action Taken: The speaker sold their TLT (Treasury Long-Term Bond ETF) and TMF (Treasury 20+ Year Zero-Coupon Bond ETF) because they anticipated yields would rise due to the Fed's hawkish stance. They explain that one does not want to be invested in long-dated bonds when the Fed is signaling a hawkish outlook.

Financial Snapshot: The speaker states they started with $223,100 (implied from "2231" and context) and $100,000 in crypto, resulting in over $200,000 made, not lost. They were previously up $300,000 but lost $10,000. They had been waiting for a dovish Fed or a positive US-China trade deal, but instead, the expected uncertainty materialized.

Current Situation: The speaker is holding a significant amount of cash, ready to deploy it for a "seven-digit buy" opportunity. They promise to notify Discord members first about this move.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin

Main Topic: Bitcoin's price action and potential future movements.

Key Points:

• Chart Pattern: The speaker identifies an "ugly head and shoulders" pattern on the daily Bitcoin candles, with a left shoulder, head, and right shoulder.
• Breakdown: They observe a breakdown in the price.
• Support Levels:
  • A critical support line is identified. If broken and confirmed, the speaker believes Bitcoin could drop to $90,000-$100,000. This is where they would consider taking on risk again.
  • Historically, $100,000 has served as a support level, tested multiple times.
• Government Shutdown Impact: The speaker speculates that if the government shutdown continues into the weekend, it could lead to a "trick or treat" scenario with no treats, implying a negative outcome for the market.
• Uncharted Territory: The current situation, with the government shutdown and potential economic implications, is described as "uncharted territory" with no historical precedents.

Argument: The Fed's hawkish stance made the decision to derisk easy. The current market dip, while painful, presents an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a cheaper price if it reaches the $100,000 support level.

Analysis of Other Cryptocurrencies

1. XRP

• Speaker's Decision: The speaker sold all their XRP, marking the first time in 10-13 years they haven't owned it.
• Technical Analysis: XRP failed to break past the 50-day moving average (MA) multiple times, leading to an expected downward reversal.
• Current Price and Target: XRP is currently at $0.241. The speaker anticipates a potential drop to $0.229, which they consider a good support level.
• Potential Bounce: A quick government resolution could lead to a bounce back to the 50 MA, but the speaker is unsure. They are still "long in the market" but are watching for developments.

2. Solana (SOL)

• Speaker's Decision: The speaker is "very glad" they got out of Solana, as it saved them significant losses.
• Price Action: Solana dropped from around $190-$200 to $181, a roughly 10% decrease.
• Support Level: The speaker identifies $177 as a potential support level. A failure at this level would be "ugly."

3. Ethereum (ETH)

• Speaker's Position: ETH is described as the "biggest of my positions."
• Support and Buy Zone:
  • The immediate support is at $3,750.
  • If $3,750 fails and is confirmed, the speaker is looking to buy between $3,500 and $3,750. This is their designated "buy zone."
• Strategy: The speaker is waiting with "no risk" to see how the government situation unfolds and if it impacts the market.

Market Outlook and Government Shutdown Impact

Main Topic: The immediate future of the market, heavily influenced by the government shutdown and political developments.

Key Points:

• Fed's Influence: The speaker reiterates their focus on the Fed's policy over political news.
• Expected Weakness: The speaker anticipates a weak finish to the current trading day, with about 50 minutes left.
• Market Dictating to Politicians: The speaker believes the market will "tell the politicians" to solve the shutdown by showing "big red candles," indicating that failure to do so will lead to further declines.
• V-Shaped Recovery Scenario: If the government opens tomorrow and a resolution is reached, the speaker expects a "V-shaped recovery." However, they are uncertain if the market can sustain it.
• Weekend Uncertainty: If no agreement is reached by the weekend, the speaker expresses significant uncertainty about how the market will perform.
• Monday Outlook: If the government is still shut down on Monday, the speaker predicts a "big red candle." Conversely, if an agreement is reached within the next 72 hours, a "little reprieve" is expected.
• Personal Strategy: The speaker has derisked and is looking to re-enter the market at a cheaper price.

Membership and Partnership Promotions

• Discord Membership: The speaker encourages viewers to join their membership for $fall50 (50% off) via the first link below. They also mention an annual option for $39.99 (20% off), described as "dirt cheap."
• Kraken Partnership: The second link directs to Kraken, offering $25 in XRP for trading $100 or more after signing up.
• Mumu Partnership: The third link is for Mumu, highlighting a limited-time offer of a $100 cash reward bonus and an 8.1% APY on uninvested cash for up to three months. This offer is set to expire soon.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes by reiterating the importance of their strategy in navigating current market conditions, emphasizing that they have derisked and are positioned to capitalize on future opportunities. They encourage viewers to subscribe, join their Discord, and take advantage of the promotions. The overarching message is one of proactive risk management and strategic positioning in a volatile market, driven by Federal Reserve policy and political uncertainty.