Critics warn Tinubu's APC puts democracy at risk | DW News

Key Concepts

• One-Party Dominance: A political scenario where a single party (APC) controls the vast majority of state governments, threatening the competitive nature of democracy.
• Political Defection: The practice of politicians switching parties, often driven by survival, access to resources, or protection from legal scrutiny.
• Political Economy of Nigeria: The structural relationship between political power, state resources, and the use of institutions (like the EFCC) to influence political loyalty.
• Existential Crisis: The combination of worsening insecurity, economic instability, and the erosion of democratic accountability.
• Staggered Elections: The Nigerian electoral framework where presidential and national assembly elections occur before state-level elections, giving the ruling party a strategic advantage.

1. The State of Nigeria’s Political Landscape

Nigeria is experiencing an unprecedented shift toward a one-party state. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) now controls 31 of the nation’s 36 states. This consolidation has sparked alarm among civil society groups, who argue that the rapid defection of governors, senators, and lawmakers from opposition parties to the APC is undermining the democratic process.

• The Opposition’s Decline: The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which governed for 16 years, has seen its influence wane, now controlling only two states.
• The APC’s Stance: The ruling party maintains that these defections are voluntary and reflect public confidence. They argue that implementing a "gatekeeping" process to reject new members would be anti-democratic and a violation of the constitution.

2. Drivers of Defection: Survival vs. Ideology

Analysts and experts, including Aisha Osori, emphasize that these shifts are not rooted in ideology.

• Political Survival: Politicians switch parties to remain close to the center of power, which is essential for securing re-election and maintaining influence.
• Institutional Weaponization: A recurring theme is the use of state institutions, specifically the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), as a tool for political leverage. Osori notes that files regarding corruption are often used to "bargain" with politicians; once a politician defects to the APC, they are often shielded from prosecution—a phenomenon frequently mocked in Nigerian popular culture.

3. The Danger of One-Party Dominance

The transition toward a one-party system poses significant risks to Nigeria’s stability:

• Lack of Accountability: Without a strong opposition, there is no mechanism to hold the government accountable for its performance.
• Erosion of Choice: Critics argue that if the opposition is effectively neutralized, elections become a "foregone conclusion," stripping citizens of their democratic right to choose.
• The "Peaceful Change" Argument: Osori warns that by making peaceful democratic change impossible, the current political trajectory may inadvertently make "violent change inevitable," citing Nigeria’s history of military coups.

4. Socio-Economic and Security Context

The political consolidation is occurring against a backdrop of severe national crises:

• Insecurity: Terrorist groups are systematically targeting military bases, particularly in the Northeast (Borno). There is a documented rise in the deaths of senior military personnel and mass kidnappings (over 1,000 between January and April 2026).
• Public Goods: The government is failing to provide basic necessities, including reliable electricity and running water, with frequent collapses of the national grid.
• Government Empathy: Critics argue that the current administration lacks empathy for the suffering of the populace, focusing on power consolidation rather than addressing the existential threats facing the country.

5. Notable Quotes

• Aisha Osori: "If you make peaceful change impossible, then you will make violent change inevitable."
• Aisha Osori (on the EFCC): "All is forgiven once you go to APC. So you can steal as much as you want, loot as much as you want of public funds. The minute you declare for APC, you'll be fine."
• Anonymous Citizen: "We are too complex to be conscripted into a one-party state."

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The current political climate in Nigeria is characterized by a dangerous concentration of power that threatens the country's fragile democracy. The APC’s dominance is not a result of ideological alignment but rather a strategic survival mechanism for politicians seeking to avoid legal scrutiny and maintain access to state resources. As the country approaches the next election cycle, the combination of systemic corruption, worsening insecurity, and the lack of a viable opposition creates a volatile environment. The consensus among critics is that the government’s focus on maintaining power at the expense of governance and accountability is steering the nation toward a potential crisis.