Critical Minerals Move to the Center of US National Security Strategy | Dominic Raab

Key Concepts

• Critical Minerals: Raw materials essential for modern technologies and national security, facing supply chain vulnerabilities. (e.g., Rare Earths, Lithium, Copper, Uranium)
• Onshoring/Reshoring: Bringing manufacturing and processing back to the US to strengthen domestic supply chains.
• Friend-shoring: Securing supply chains by sourcing from politically aligned and reliable nations.
• Geopolitical Risk: The influence of political factors on mineral supply, demand, and investment.
• Public-Private Partnerships: Collaboration between governments and private companies to finance and develop critical mineral projects.
• ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance): Criteria used to assess the sustainability and ethical impact of investments.
• Monroe/Donro Doctrine: US foreign policy regarding intervention in the Western Hemisphere, now applied to resource control.
• Polarization: The increasing division between geopolitical blocs (US vs. China/Russia) impacting resource access.

Geopolitical Landscape & US Strategy in Critical Minerals

The Future Minerals Forum 2026 is taking place against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension, particularly concerning the supply of critical minerals. Domc, Head of Global Affairs at Appion Capital, highlights a “galvanization of action” from the US government in response to supply bottlenecks and concentration risks. A key example is the Mountain Pass deal for heavy rare earths, involving equity stakes from Apple – a move described as “phase one” of a broader strategy.

The US is pursuing a dual strategy: onshoring (re-establishing domestic production) and friend-shoring (securing supplies from allies). A joint venture between Mountain Pass and Saudi Arabia to build a heavy rare earth refinery exemplifies this, acknowledging the need for external processing capabilities even while prioritizing domestic production. The US recognizes the need for financial partnerships, as fully funding these initiatives domestically is unsustainable, and countries like Saudi Arabia are willing to provide capital in exchange for facilities located within their borders. Factors driving this partnership include Saudi Arabia’s favorable permitting timelines and lower energy costs, crucial for mining projects.

US Policy & Potential Contradictions

While the US aims to secure critical mineral supply chains, Trump’s policies, particularly import tariffs, have strained relationships with allies like Canada, raising questions about the US’s reliability as a partner. Domc acknowledges this potential contradiction, noting that the US believes its recent deals demonstrate progress despite trade tensions.

The US is actively seeking partnerships with countries like Canada, Australia, and Namibia for uranium supply, essential for nuclear power. The Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the Department of War, and the US Import-Export Bank (XIM) are playing key roles in financing projects abroad with offtake agreements ensuring supply to the US. This approach aims to balance onshore development with strategic investments in foreign projects.

Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics & Venezuela

The US arrest of the Venezuelan president is viewed not as a return to 20th-century resource wars, but as an “evolution forward” in foreign policy. The US is demonstrating a willingness to be “decisive militarily” when necessary, while avoiding “forever wars.” The concept of “spheres of influence” and a more pragmatic, “real politic” approach are gaining prominence.

The situation in Venezuela is partly driven by concerns over Chinese and Russian involvement in the country’s oil sector. While the immediate focus is on the US’s “backyard,” the move sends a broader message to China regarding critical mineral access: any disruption of supply could be met with reciprocal action. Domc suggests this is a more straightforward response to sanctions busting and illicit activities than a direct attempt to limit China’s mineral access.

The Rise of Economic Realism & Public-Private Partnerships

Domc argues that the US is embracing a new form of “economic realism,” recognizing the national security importance of critical minerals and being willing to provide “seed capital” to unlock private investment. David Copley, from the National Security Council, reinforced this message at the Future Minerals Forum.

Public-private partnerships are emerging as a crucial mechanism for funding critical mineral projects. Appion Capital’s managed account with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) – a $1 billion investment in non-OECD countries – is cited as a successful model, emphasizing high ESG standards. This approach aims to unlock investment in emerging markets in Latin America and Africa.

M&A Trends & Permitting Challenges

The mining industry is witnessing a wave of mergers and acquisitions (M&A), driven by the need for scale and lower capital costs to fund large-scale copper projects. However, Domc believes the real value lies in the midcap space, where firms like Appion Capital can add value through project development.

He notes that large mining companies often find it easier to pursue M&A than to navigate the lengthy and complex permitting processes required for greenfield projects. A key challenge for the West is to accelerate permitting timelines to compete with China and other jurisdictions. Saudi Arabia’s appeal lies in its lower energy costs and faster permitting processes.

Notable Quotes

• “There is a galvanization of action coming out of Washington DC in response to the bottlenecks of supply that we've seen because of the high levels of concentration.” – Domc
• “The US wants to onshore when they can and Frenchaw when they must.” – Domc
• “It’s not actually a harkening back to the past. I think you're seeing a new kind of if you like economic realism born of the fact that we don’t have a free market in some of these areas particularly critical minerals and rare earths.” – Domc

Technical Terms & Concepts

• Rare Earths: A group of 17 chemically similar metallic elements crucial for various high-tech applications (e.g., magnets, electronics).
• Heavy Rare Earths: Specific rare earth elements with higher atomic weights, often used in specialized applications.
• Offtake Agreement: A contract for the purchase of a commodity (e.g., minerals) produced by a mine.
• ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance): A framework for evaluating the sustainability and ethical impact of investments.
• Permitting: The process of obtaining regulatory approvals to begin mining operations.
• Greenfield Project: A new mining project developed on previously undeveloped land.

Synthesis & Conclusion

The Future Minerals Forum 2026 highlights a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape surrounding critical minerals. The US is actively pursuing a strategy of onshoring, friend-shoring, and public-private partnerships to secure its supply chains, driven by national security concerns and a growing recognition of the strategic importance of these resources. While potential contradictions exist within US policy, the overall trend points towards a more assertive and pragmatic approach to resource control. Accelerating permitting processes and fostering international collaboration will be crucial for the West to compete with China and ensure a stable supply of critical minerals for the future. The rise of economic realism and the emphasis on ESG principles are shaping the future of mining investment and development.