Craig Hemke: Gold Price to US$5,000+, Silver to Double in 2026?

Key Concepts

• Silver Price Surge (2025): Significant price increase in silver, exceeding expectations, driven by multiple factors.
• Comex Delivery & Shutdown: Misconceptions surrounding the Comex shutdown and its impact on silver prices, debunking claims of manipulation.
• Physical Silver Scarcity: Growing concerns about the availability of physical silver and its impact on pricing.
• Dollar Devaluation: The core driver of precious metal price increases is the declining value of fiat currencies, not inherent value increases in gold or silver.
• Central Bank & Tether Demand: The influence of central bank buying and Tether’s accumulation of gold on the market.
• Silver Mining Stocks: Potential for outperformance in the silver mining sector due to limited investment opportunities and increasing demand.
• Macroeconomic Outlook: Concerns about US economic stability, increasing debt, and potential for continued monetary easing.

Silver Price Action in 2025 & 2026 Outlook

The interview focuses heavily on the remarkable performance of silver in 2025, a breakout that even bullish analysts like Craig Hempy didn’t fully anticipate. Hempy initially forecasted a 10% increase for silver in 2025, considering the strong performance of 2024. However, silver ultimately experienced a substantial surge, currently trading around $67, mirroring gold’s breakout pattern from 2024 (which doubled in price within 18 months). Hempy suggests a possibility of silver doubling as well, potentially within a shorter timeframe than 18 months given the current momentum. He notes that gold’s 25% increase in 2024 and 65% in 2025 are not solely attributable to one factor, but a confluence of events.

Debunking Misconceptions Regarding the Comex & Silver Deliveries

A significant portion of the discussion addresses and debunks misinformation circulating regarding the silver market, particularly surrounding the Comex shutdown in December. Hempy clarifies that the December Comex contract is typically the busiest for deliveries, and the recent high delivery volume was due to existing tariffs and metal flows, not a sign of manipulation. He specifically addresses and refutes claims of a single large order driving the deliveries, citing CME data showing distribution to house accounts of Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Canada. He emphasizes that the Comex shutdown was due to a cooling issue affecting all trading platforms, not specifically related to silver deliveries. He also dismisses claims of JP Morgan covering all their short positions and hoarding 750 million ounces of silver, explaining that their accumulation has been a gradual process documented since 2011. Hempy criticizes the spread of “hyperbole” and unsubstantiated claims driven by individuals seeking attention.

Drivers of Silver’s Price Increase & 2026 Forecast

Hempy identifies several key drivers behind silver’s price increase, beyond the debunked conspiracy theories. These include:

• Gold’s Performance: The strong performance of gold provides a tailwind for silver.
• Shifting Market Dynamics: A reluctance from market makers to open new short positions in silver, suggesting a potential shift in market control.
• Industrial Demand: Silver’s crucial role in various industrial applications (electronics, solar panels, batteries) creates a compelling supply-demand dynamic. A four-year supply deficit of 800 million ounces underscores this.
• Dollar Devaluation: The fundamental driver is the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies.
• Critical Minerals Designation: Silver’s recent designation as a critical mineral in the US is expected to limit exports and increase domestic demand.

Looking ahead to 2026, Hempy is bullish, suggesting that silver could continue its upward trajectory. He draws parallels to gold’s performance, suggesting a potential doubling of silver’s price. He acknowledges the possibility of short-term pullbacks but believes the underlying trend remains strongly positive. He specifically highlights the potential for outperformance in silver mining stocks due to limited investment opportunities and increasing demand.

Macroeconomic Context & Implications

Hempy expresses concerns about the US economy, citing increasing debt levels and the potential for continued monetary easing. He points to the growing interest payments on the national debt (now exceeding $1.25 trillion annually) as a significant challenge. He believes the US government will be compelled to maintain loose monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and generate tax revenue, further devaluing the dollar. He suggests the US is entering a “crack-up boom” phase, where excessive money printing drives up asset prices, including precious metals. He notes that the US Treasury Secretary and former Trump economic advisor have discussed monetizing the asset side of the balance sheet, which would further exacerbate inflationary pressures.

Notable Quotes

• “It’s not the price that’s expensive. It’s the dollar…that’s losing value.” – Craig Hempy, emphasizing the importance of understanding currency devaluation.
• “Don’t look at it and go, ‘Oh, it’s too expensive.’ No. Your currency is just getting weaker and weaker, and that trend is not going to change.” – Craig Hempy, advising investors to continue accumulating precious metals.
• “Gold is the measuring stick. It doesn’t get like more versatile. It doesn’t become more productive. It just collects the dust.” – Craig Hempy, illustrating the role of gold as a store of value.

Technical Terms & Concepts

• Comex: The Commodity Exchange, a futures and options market.
• Delivery Contract: A futures contract where the underlying commodity is physically delivered.
• Open Interest: The total number of outstanding futures or options contracts.
• Contango: A situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price.
• LBMA: London Bullion Market Association, a wholesale over-the-counter market for gold and silver.
• Unallocated Accounts: Accounts where precious metals are not segregated and are subject to counterparty risk.
• Yield Curve Inversion: A situation where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, often seen as a recession indicator.
• Quantitative Easing (QE): A monetary policy where a central bank purchases assets to increase the money supply.
• Tether (USDT): A stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, increasingly involved in gold accumulation.

Logical Connections

The interview follows a logical progression, starting with the recent silver price surge, then addressing misconceptions surrounding the market, identifying key drivers, and finally, providing a macroeconomic outlook and investment advice. Hempy consistently ties the price action back to the fundamental driver of currency devaluation, emphasizing that the value of precious metals is not increasing intrinsically, but rather the purchasing power of fiat currencies is declining. The discussion of the Comex and physical silver scarcity serves to highlight the potential vulnerabilities and complexities within the market.

Conclusion

The interview paints a bullish picture for silver in 2026, driven by a combination of factors including strong gold performance, increasing industrial demand, a weakening dollar, and potential supply constraints. Hempy cautions against relying on unsubstantiated claims and emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying macroeconomic forces at play. He recommends investors consider silver mining stocks as a potential outperformer and advises continued accumulation of precious metals as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic uncertainty. The core takeaway is that the current precious metal rally is not a speculative bubble, but a rational response to the ongoing erosion of fiat currency value.