Could the diplomatic row escalate into an armed conflict? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Diplomatic Escalation: India and Pakistan revoking visas, suspending treaties.
• Cross-border Terrorism: India accusing Pakistan of supporting militant attacks.
• Water Sharing Treaty: Suspension of the treaty and potential consequences.
• Kashmir: Impact of the attack on tourism, local population, and Kashmiri students in India.
• Normalization Narrative: Setback to India's narrative of normalcy in Kashmir after revoking its special status.
• False Flag Operation: Pakistan's counter-accusation regarding the attack.

1. Diplomatic Escalation and Accusations

• India and Pakistan are experiencing heightened tensions, marked by the revocation of visas for each other's citizens.
• The escalation follows a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, where 26 civilians were killed.
• India accuses Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism and has suspended a water-sharing treaty with Islamabad.
• Pakistan denies involvement in the attack and warns that any attempt to stop water supply from the Indus River would be considered an act of war.

2. Survivor Account and Impact of the Attack

• Simran Rabch Channey, a survivor of the attack, recounts escaping with her husband and son, sustaining a leg injury during their flight.
• The attack claimed the life of Adil Hussein Sha, a local pony guide, who reportedly died while trying to save others.
• The incident has severely impacted tourism in Kashmir, with tourists canceling bookings and leaving the region.
• Local shopkeepers in Srinagar express anxiety about the consequences of the attack on their businesses.

3. Retaliatory Measures and Protests

• India has shut the main border crossing with Pakistan and suspended a decades-old water-sharing treaty as retaliatory measures.
• The suspension of the water treaty has sparked angry protests in Pakistan.
• Pakistan views the potential disruption of water supplies from the Indus River as an act of war.

4. Concerns for Kashmiri Students and Citizens

• Families in Kashmir are concerned about attacks on Kashmiris in other parts of India.
• Reports indicate that Kashmiri students have been assaulted and threatened in various states, including Punjab and Uttarakhand.
• Many Kashmiri students are returning home due to safety concerns.
• The Chief Minister of the state is monitoring the issue and coordinating with other state administrations to ensure the safety of Kashmiri students.

5. Expert Perspectives and Political Implications

• Experts believe the attack is a setback to Prime Minister Modi's narrative of normalcy in Kashmir after the revocation of its special status in 2019.
• Anu Rad Bhasin, the managing editor of the Kashmir Times, notes that the Indian government has promoted tourism as evidence of normalcy in Kashmir.
• Bhasin points out that the Modi government has made tourism the central pivot of its positive narrative about Kashmir, claiming that terrorism has ended and been replaced by tourism.
• She also highlights the lack of adequate security cover in tourist areas, as exposed by the attack.

6. Risk of Escalation and Potential for Peace

• There are concerns that the diplomatic route could escalate into an armed conflict, given the belligerent leadership on both sides.
• Bhasin mentions the army's control in Pakistan and recent negative statements by the Pakistan army chief.
• She also notes the Hindu right-wing government in India, whose politics is fueled by communal hate and hatred of Pakistan.
• Despite the risks, there is hope that the situation will de-escalate, as war is in nobody's interest.
• Past instances of near-war situations followed by peace processes offer a glimmer of hope.

7. Evidence and Accusations

• The Indian government has claimed that the attack had cross-border links to Pakistan but has not presented concrete evidence to support this claim.
• Accusations against all of Kashmiris emerged rapidly after the incident, even before investigations could take place.
• Pakistan has responded with counter-accusations of a false flag operation, also without providing evidence.
• Bhasin emphasizes the need to focus on gathering facts on the ground before making accusations.

8. Water as a Weapon

• The suspension of the water-sharing treaty is seen as India using a natural resource as a weapon.
• Bhasin questions the practicality of diverting or storing water, noting the infrastructure requirements and potential challenges in taming waters.

9. Adil Bhat's Report from Srinagar

• DW correspondent Adil Bhat reports from Srinagar that the city has opened up, but shopkeepers are anxious about the consequences of the recent attack.
• He notes that tourists are flocking to the airport to leave, and hotel owners have reported cancellations of bookings.
• Bhat highlights the alarm among the local population due to the cutting of diplomatic ties and the fear of a massive escalation between the two nuclear-armed nations.
• He also mentions that memories of past wars between the two nations still haunt the people in Kashmir.

10. Conclusion

The situation between India and Pakistan is highly volatile, marked by diplomatic escalations, accusations of terrorism, and concerns over water resources. The attack in Kashmir has had a significant impact on tourism and the local population, while also raising fears for the safety of Kashmiri students in India. The lack of concrete evidence supporting accusations from both sides underscores the need for a thorough investigation and a focus on de-escalation to prevent further conflict. The suspension of the water-sharing treaty adds a new dimension to the conflict, raising questions about the use of natural resources as weapons.