Could Israel lose Donald Trump’s support by continuing to drop bombs in Lebanon? • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire Fragility: The ongoing military actions despite formal agreements.
• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU): The diplomatic framework between the US and Iran to end hostilities.
• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint and the primary driver of US geopolitical interest in the region.
• Regime Resilience: The capacity of the Iranian government to withstand external pressure and targeted leadership strikes.
• Strategic Miscalculation: The gap between Israel’s military objectives and its actual political outcomes.

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1. The Status of the Lebanon Ceasefire

Despite a ceasefire agreement taking effect on Friday, violence persists in Southern Lebanon.

• Casualties: Lebanese state media reported five deaths from overnight Israeli strikes. Earlier, a drone strike resulted in two fatalities.
• Violations: Reuters reported a dozen Israeli strikes within the first hour of the ceasefire.
• Expert Perspective: Yossi Mekelberg (Chatham House) characterizes this as "habitual behavior," where parties attempt to assert dominance by having the "last word" in a conflict.

2. US-Iran Diplomatic Negotiations

High-level talks are underway in Switzerland to solidify a memorandum aimed at ending the war.

• Key Personnel: US Envoy Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner are meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
• US Objectives: President Trump’s primary motivation is to stabilize the Strait of Hormuz to alleviate domestic and international economic pressure.
• The "Trump Doctrine": Mekelberg notes that the US strategy involved initiating a war without a clear exit strategy, leading to an abrupt pivot toward negotiation when objectives remained unmet.

3. Israel’s Strategic Dilemma

Israel faces a growing rift with Washington as its military actions continue to diverge from US diplomatic goals.

• Netanyahu’s Political Risk: With elections approaching in 2–3 months, Prime Minister Netanyahu lacks a clear "win" to present to voters. His continued bombardment is viewed as a declaration of military independence, which risks a direct clash with the US administration.
• Negotiation Obstacles: The intensity of the bombardment makes it politically impossible for the Lebanese government to engage in meaningful negotiations, undermining the shared goal of weakening Hezbollah and securing the border.

4. The Failure of "Regime Change" in Iran

The initial goal of achieving regime change in Iran through external pressure is described as "pie in the sky."

• Misunderstanding Resilience: The strategy of targeting leadership (e.g., Ali Khamenei) failed because the Iranian regime is structurally resilient.
• Internal vs. External Change: Mekelberg argues that radical, long-term change must originate from within Iran, noting that external military pressure has only served to embolden the regime.
• Economic Leverage: Iran has demonstrated the ability to disrupt the global economy by threatening the Strait of Hormuz, effectively forcing major powers to the negotiating table.

5. Implications of the Memorandum

The MOU is viewed by some as a significant boon for Iran, though the long-term consequences remain complex.

• Regime Survival: The agreement likely ensures the survival of the current Iranian regime, potentially at the cost of increased domestic repression.
• Sanctions and Funds: The potential release of $300 billion in funds raises concerns about whether these resources will be used to improve Iranian infrastructure or to further strengthen the regime’s security apparatus.
• Regional Integration: Mekelberg warns that a "rushed" deal with the US is insufficient; long-term stability requires a broader regional conversation that includes neighboring states.

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The current situation is defined by a disconnect between military action and diplomatic reality. While the US seeks a quick resolution to stabilize global energy markets via the Strait of Hormuz, Israel continues to pursue military objectives that lack a clear political horizon. The failure of the "regime change" strategy in Iran has left the current government in Tehran feeling emboldened, while the ongoing bombardment in Lebanon complicates the very negotiations required to secure the border. The primary takeaway is that without a cohesive, long-term strategy that includes regional stakeholders, the current ceasefire remains fragile and the underlying geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.