Could conscription return in Europe? | Inside Story

Key Concepts

• Military Service Reintroduction: European countries are re-examining and, in some cases, reintroducing forms of military service.
• Conscription: Mandatory military service for citizens.
• Voluntary Military Service: Military service undertaken by choice.
• Deterrence: The act of discouraging an opponent from taking action through the threat of retaliation.
• Readiness: The state of being prepared for military action.
• European Strategic Autonomy: The concept of European nations taking greater responsibility for their own defense, reducing reliance on external powers like the US.
• Total Defense: A societal approach to defense where all aspects of society are prepared to contribute to national security.
• Peace Dividend: The economic benefits derived from reduced military spending during periods of peace.

France's Return to Military Service

France has announced the reintroduction of a form of military service, 25 years after ending conscription. This new initiative is voluntary, limited to 10 months of duty, and will be conducted solely on French soil. President Emmanuel Macron stated that the country needs to be prepared to mobilize, framing the plan as a significant asset on the military, moral, civic, and republican fronts, and an act of trust in the youth.

• Details:
  • Beginning next year, 18 and 19-year-old men and women can volunteer.
  • The program involves 10 months of paid military training.
  • The initial intake is for 3,000 individuals, with ambitions to expand to 50,000 by 2035.
• Rationale: President Macron emphasized the uncertain global landscape where "force rules over law" and "war is a present-day reality." He argued that the nation cannot afford fear, panic, lack of preparedness, or division, and that preparation is the only way to prevent danger.
• Context: This move follows a statement by the head of the French armed forces that French military planning is based on the assumption of a confrontation with Russia within the next three to four years. This statement caused controversy and alarm, highlighting the perceived need for increased preparedness.

Broader European Shift in Defense Posture

France's decision reflects a wider trend across Europe, where governments are strengthening their defenses due to growing concerns about a Russian threat. This shift has been amplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and, for some, by the prospect of a US withdrawal from European security commitments.

• Examples of European Initiatives:
  • Germany: Announced plans for all 18-year-old men to declare their fitness for military duty and undergo medical screening from 2027. This is described as a hybrid approach, voluntary service backed by a possible lottery, and a compromise. Germany is also significantly increasing its defense budget, aiming for 162 billion euros by 2029, and is aware that the "peace dividend is over."
  • Belgium and Netherlands: Introduced voluntary military service.
  • Lithuania and Latvia: Have compulsory schemes with cadets chosen by lottery.
  • Sweden: Has implemented 9 to 15 months of military service with selection based on merit.
  • Finland and Greece: Have never abolished conscription.
  • United Kingdom: The Conservative Party proposed mandatory military or community service in its manifesto for a previous election, though it lost.
  • Spain: Has no current plans to reintroduce military service.

Arguments For and Against Military Service

The reintroduction of military service has sparked debate, with differing perspectives on its necessity and effectiveness.

• Arguments for:

  • Deterrence and Readiness: Essential for deterring potential adversaries like Russia and ensuring the ability to defend oneself if deterrence fails. Peter Nielson emphasizes that deterrence success is determined by the enemy's perception of capabilities, will, and opportunity.
  • Societal Preparedness: Necessary to prepare societies for the reality of conflict, as highlighted by General Mandon's statement about France needing to be ready to "lose its children." Politicians are urged to "talk straight" to the population about the security situation.
  • Boosting Reserve Forces: In France, the aim is to double the current number of reserve soldiers (around 50,000) through this new system.
  • Cultural Norms: In Nordic and Baltic countries, military service is a cultural norm, with many citizens familiar with it and even keeping rifles at home (e.g., Norway, Finland).
  • Economic Benefits: Increased defense spending can stimulate the economy through investment in companies like Rheinmetall.
  • European Strategic Autonomy: Encourages European nations to take more responsibility for their defense, reducing reliance on the US.

• Arguments Against/Concerns:

  • Effectiveness of Volunteers vs. Conscripts: Some experts argue that volunteers make better soldiers, while others believe Europe needs more people in the ranks, potentially through conscription.
  • Social Disinterest: In countries like the UK, there is a perceived disinterest among young people in international affairs and national defense, with a greater focus on social media.
  • Recruitment Challenges: Difficulties in attracting volunteers due to factors like long periods at sea for naval personnel (e.g., 300 days a year for nuclear submarine crews) and lower pay compared to civilian jobs (e.g., London Underground train drivers).
  • Lack of Training Capacity: In the UK, a significant argument against mandatory service is the insufficient number of training places.
  • Societal Readiness: The British public, in particular, is seen as not mentally prepared for a shift towards a new security reality, with a government prioritizing social needs over defense.
  • Cost and Efficiency: Full conscription for all 18-year-olds annually might not be efficient or suited to future imperatives, and people regret its past role as a tool for social integration.
  • Risk of War of Attrition: While NATO aims for a maneuverist approach, there's a need to sustain casualties if a war of attrition occurs, which conscription could help with.

Expert Perspectives

• Peter Nielson (Former NATO Commander): Believes the shift is a combination of real security needs and deterrence. He notes that NATO has moved from a deterrence doctrine to a concept of defense and deterrence, mirroring Cold War defense planning. He stresses the need for politicians to communicate the reality of the threat to the public. He also points out that frontline nations need to be as "indigestible" as possible to Russia, advocating for a "total defense mode" similar to Finland or Israel.
• Paul Beaver (Defense Analyst): Argues that willingness to serve is linked to proximity to Russia. He highlights social pressures and disinterest in defense in the UK, suggesting conscription is not viable there due to a lack of social background for it. He believes France's cultural inclination towards military service and its history of overseas deployments make its voluntary scheme more achievable than in the UK. He states that the British public is not attuned to the current security reality.
• Jacques Relo (Senior Research Fellow): Describes European societies as being at the beginning of a "long transition" towards accepting mobilization. He sees Macron's announcement as part of a campaign to prepare the French population for the possibility of war with Russia, which can take many forms beyond direct military conflict. He believes full conscription is not yet on the cards for France but could become a possibility if the situation deteriorates significantly. He notes that 80% of French people approve of the new voluntary training system. He also observes a significant shift in Germany's mindset and a substantial increase in its defense budget, which is "music to the ears" of the French regarding European strategic autonomy.

The Russian Threat and European Response

The consensus among the experts is that the Russian threat is real and not inflated rhetoric.

• NATO's Strategic Concept: Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, NATO changed its strategic concept, recognizing that previous deterrence models were insufficient. Units have been enlarged, and a robust defense posture is being established, with military units stacked from northern Norway to Bulgaria, facing east.
• Mirroring the Cold War: The current defense planning is seen as mirroring the principles of how Western Europe was defended during the Cold War.
• Eastern European Awareness: Countries in Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltics, have been aware of the Russian threat for many years.
• Need for Deeper European Countries to Follow: There is a call for "deeper" European countries to align with the defense efforts of frontline nations.

Conclusion and Synthesis

The reintroduction of military service in France and similar discussions across Europe signify a profound shift in the continent's security landscape, driven by a perceived increase in the Russian threat. While the specific approaches vary, from voluntary schemes to potential mandatory service, the underlying sentiment is a recognition that the era of a "peace dividend" is over, and European nations must bolster their defense capabilities and societal readiness. The debate centers on the most effective means to achieve this – whether through voluntary enlistment, conscription, or a hybrid model – and the crucial need for political leadership to communicate the gravity of the situation to the public. The success of these initiatives will depend on cultural adaptation, economic investment, and a sustained commitment to European strategic autonomy.