Could China take over as the world's climate leader? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Green Tech Revolution: The anticipated shift towards environmentally friendly technologies, particularly in energy production and consumption.
• Paris Climate Agreement: An international treaty adopted in 2015 to combat climate change by limiting global warming.
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, contributing to global warming. China is the largest emitter.
• Clean Energy Superpower: A nation that leads in the production and adoption of renewable energy sources. China is identified as such.
• Solar Panels: Devices that convert sunlight into electricity. China is the dominant global producer.
• Renewable Energy: Energy derived from natural sources that are replenished at a higher rate than they are consumed, such as solar, wind, and hydropower.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): Vehicles powered by electricity. China is a leader in this sector.
• Batteries and Storage: Technologies crucial for storing renewable energy. China leads in these areas.
• Energy Security: A nation's ability to secure the availability of sufficient and affordable energy supplies.
• Technology Self-Sufficiency: A country's ability to develop and produce its own advanced technologies without relying on foreign sources.
• Environmental Protection: Measures taken to safeguard the natural environment from pollution and degradation.
• Coal: A fossil fuel that is a significant source of energy but also a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. China continues to produce and use coal.
• Fracking: A method of extracting oil and natural gas from shale rock. The US has significant reserves through this method.
• Geopolitical Leverage: The influence a country has on international relations due to its economic or political power.
• Fossil Fuel Transition Agreement: Negotiations or agreements aimed at shifting away from fossil fuels towards cleaner energy sources.
• Subnationals: Sub-national entities within a country, such as states or cities, that are taking climate action independently.
• COP Conference: The annual Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, where nations negotiate climate action.

China's Role in Global Clean Energy

Dominance in Clean Energy Production and Supply Chains

China has emerged as a "clean energy superpower," despite being the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. This apparent contradiction is explained by its significant investments and dominance in the production of green technologies.

• Solar Power: China is the leading global producer of solar panels, with these panels likely on many residential roofs worldwide. In the previous year, China generated nearly 40% of global solar power, a figure projected to increase.
• Renewable Energy Generation: Experts estimate that Beijing will soon produce approximately 60% of global renewable energy.
• Other Sectors: China also leads in electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and energy storage technologies.

Drivers of China's Green Tech Leadership

According to Zangwan Zoe Lu, a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, China's ascent in clean tech is driven by three primary components:

1. Energy Security Concerns:

   • China heavily imports oil and gas, with a significant portion of its crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, making it vulnerable to disruptions in seaborn trade routes dominated by the US Navy.
   • To enhance energy security, China aims for greater self-sufficiency, which necessitates a substantial increase in domestic renewable energy production.

2. Technology and Self-Sufficiency:

   • China's leadership in solar, wind, and potentially nuclear power (including small modular reactors) has roots in early 2000s policies, notably Germany's promotion of solar energy, which jump-started China's solar industry and technology development.
   • The pursuit of technological self-sufficiency is a key strategic goal.

3. Environmental Protection:

   • Addressing domestic environmental pollution is a recognized motivation for China's push towards cleaner energy sources.

The Contradiction: Emissions vs. Clean Energy Production

Despite its clean energy dominance, China remains the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and continues to produce and use significant amounts of coal. It is one of the few countries that has not committed to completely phasing out coal from its energy profile. This duality is often underestimated by observers outside of China.

US Position and Global Climate Diplomacy

US Withdrawal from Climate Leadership

The United States, once expected to lead a green tech revolution after signing the Paris climate agreement, has shifted its stance.

• President Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement.
• The US sent no representatives to a recent climate change conference in Brazil.
• Legislation passed in the US is described as "proof friendly" (implying pro-fossil fuel).

The "China Eating US Lunch" Debate

The idea that China will dominate the US in the clean tech sector is debated.

• Argument for China's Dominance: China's massive capacity and rapid rollout of clean tech are lowering costs globally for photovoltaics, batteries, and EVs.
• Counterarguments:
  • The rest of the world benefits from China's clean tech but also harbors concerns about its dominance.
  • In the US, there are concerns about Chinese EVs and batteries flooding the market.
  • The US has significant oil and natural gas reserves through fracking, a resource not as readily available in China.
  • Research partnerships and talent flow between the US and China in this sector still exist, indicating interdependencies rather than outright competition.
  • Economists view the clean energy transformation as the biggest economic opportunity in a generation, and the US risks "losing out massively" by not fully participating.

US Subnationals and Continued Climate Action

Despite the federal government's stance, subnational entities in the US, such as California, are actively participating in climate initiatives, signaling that the US is still involved in the fight against climate change at a regional level.

China's Geopolitical Influence and Ambitions

Geopolitical Leverage and Slow Revelation

China possesses significant de facto geopolitical leverage due to many countries' dependence on its clean energy products. However, it is moving slowly to fully reveal and utilize this influence.

• Fossil Fuel Transition: China is playing both sides in negotiations for a fossil fuel transition agreement, suggesting it stands to gain substantial market share in countries heavily reliant on fossil fuels.
• Ambition Levels: China has put forward a relatively weak target for 2035 (a 10% reduction in emissions), while experts believe it could achieve a much larger reduction (over 30%). This reflects caution in assuming diplomatic leadership.
• Seeking Allies: China is actively looking for global allies to expand its geopolitical space in the clean tech sector.

Desire for a Stable International Environment

Chinese officials are seeking a more stable international environment, free from tariff barriers, to facilitate the global rollout of clean tech and expand financial support from various sources (private investment, multilateral banks, bilateral aid). This is partly a strategy to counter the obstructionist approach of the Trump administration.

International Perspectives on China's Role

European Concerns and Competition

European officials are concerned that China is outcompeting the European Union in the clean tech sector. They are urged to grasp the opportunity and not slow down their own clean tech development, as doing so would lead to them losing out to China.

China's Ambivalent Role in Climate Diplomacy

At COP conferences, China plays an ambivalent role:

• Positive Aspects: It is the top producer of renewable power sources like solar panels and generates the most renewable energy for its own consumption.
• Negative Aspects: It remains the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases (32% of global CO2 emissions) and continues to build new coal power plants.

Leading by Example, Not Driving Others

While China is leading by example in renewable energy adoption, it has not yet fully stepped into the role of actively driving other countries in that direction, especially in the absence of US leadership.

Chinese Pavilion as a Focal Point

The Chinese pavilion at COP has become a significant focal point, with large numbers of people attending its events, indicating China's growing prominence in climate discussions.

Statements and Calls for US Return

Chinese negotiators have made statements indicating that the transition to renewables is irreversible and that they are actively working to move away from fossil fuels. They have also called for the US to re-engage in climate negotiations.

Desire for Greater Ambition

Many experts would like to see China be more ambitious and play a larger role in guiding other countries, leveraging its influence, for example, with the group of least developed countries.

Financial Commitments and Global Responsibility

China's Stance as a Developing Country

China, still classified and viewing itself as a developing country, believes it is not its role to contribute financially to the green transition of poorer countries.

Europe's Financial Constraints

Europe, a key player in climate diplomacy in the US's absence, is facing financial difficulties due to low growth periods and high inflation. This limits its willingness to commit more funds to support the green transition, especially when China also fails to commit financially.

Interdependence and Shared Challenges

The discussion highlights the complex interdependencies between nations in the clean energy transition. While China's dominance is evident, a stable international environment and shared financial commitments are crucial for global progress. The US's absence from the forefront of climate diplomacy creates a void that China is beginning to fill, albeit cautiously.