Costing controversy and polling predictions | 7.30

Key Concepts:

• Coalition's election promises costings
• Bottomline budget improvement
• Budget deficit
• Forward estimates period
• Buy now pay later budget strategy
• Published polls (YouGov, JWS)
• Preference flows

Coalition's Election Promises Costings

The coalition has released figures for their election promises, claiming a $14 billion bottomline budget improvement over the forward estimates. This improvement is stated to be more than a billion dollars compared to the pre-election outlook.

Budget Savings and Deficits

The coalition is proposing overall savings of $14 billion, which represents approximately 8% of the projected $145 billion budget deficit over the four years leading up to 2028-29. However, the coalition is also proposing larger budget deficits in the initial two years of the forward estimates period. These increased deficits are intended to be offset by savings of around $20 billion on debt in the latter half of the four-year period. This strategy is characterized as a "buy now pay later" approach.

Published Polls and Election Predictions

Final published polls are being closely watched to predict the outcome of the election. There are significant discrepancies between different polls.

• YouGov Poll: Suggests a substantial increase in the Labor vote and a potential increase in the number of seats they hold, along with significant losses for the coalition.
• JWS Poll: Indicates that preference flows from One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots may assist the coalition in securing marginal seats in the outer suburbs of major cities.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The coalition is presenting a budget strategy that involves increased spending in the short term, with the promise of future savings to offset the initial deficits. The accuracy of these projections and the feasibility of achieving the stated savings are subject to debate. The final election outcome remains uncertain, with conflicting poll results indicating potentially different scenarios. The influence of preference flows from minor parties could play a crucial role in determining the winners in marginal seats.