Costa Ricans head to the polls amid surge in narco violence • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Laura Fernandez: Right-wing presidential candidate in Costa Rica, former chief of staff to Rodrigo Chavez.
• Ariel Robles: Left-wing presidential candidate, main opposition to Fernandez.
• Rodrigo Chavez: Outgoing President of Costa Rica, criticized for handling of rising murder rate.
• Nayib Bukele: President of El Salvador, known for his “tough on crime” policies and construction of the “Terciopelo” prison.
• Constituent Assembly: A body formed to draft a new constitution.
• Judicial Overhaul: Proposed significant changes to the Costa Rican judicial system.
• Cartel Activity: Increased presence and operational level of Mexican and Colombian drug cartels in Costa Rica.

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Costa Rican Presidential Election: Fernandez’s Rise and Democratic Concerns

The Costa Rican presidential election features 20 candidates, but current polling data indicates a strong possibility of a first-round victory for 39-year-old Laura Fernandez, representing the right wing. Fernandez is projected to receive 40% of the vote, potentially avoiding a runoff election. Her campaign is heavily focused on law and order and a perceived need to overhaul the judicial system.

Fernandez’s Platform and Critique of the Judiciary

Fernandez served as the chief of staff for outgoing President Rodrigo Chavez. Chavez faced criticism for a surge in the national murder rate, a situation he deflected by placing blame on the judiciary, alleging judges were releasing criminals. Fernandez echoes this sentiment, consistently stating that judges are allowing criminals to go free. She has explicitly vowed to “crack down” on crime and secure a parliamentary majority to implement a comprehensive overhaul of the judicial system. This ambition is framed as a continuation and amplification of the “brave change” initiated by President Chavez, as stated in a campaign address: “The change, the real change that President Rodrigo Chavez brought, the brave change the president brought must be multiplied.”

The Security Situation in Costa Rica & Bukele’s Influence

A significant driver of Fernandez’s popularity is the escalating violence in Costa Rica, a nation of 5 million people. The country is experiencing an increase in drug-related shootouts. Authorities report a shift in the role of Costa Rica for Mexican and Colombian cartels; it is no longer simply a transit point for drugs, but a key logistics hub for their operations. Inspired by the policies of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, Fernandez has pledged to construct a maximum-security prison modeled after Bukele’s “Terciopelo” facility. This prison is widely criticized for its inhumane conditions.

Opposition and Concerns Regarding Democratic Backsliding

Ariel Robles, the projected runner-up and representing the left wing, has vocally condemned Fernandez’s platform as a threat to Costa Rican democracy. Robles specifically points to Fernandez’s stated intentions to convene a new constituent assembly and pursue indefinite reelection – a move that would require constitutional changes. He also highlights her desire to interfere with the independence of the judiciary and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Robles’s warning is direct: “They have said so openly they want to promote a new constituent assembly indefinite reelection. They want to meddle in a judiciary and the supreme electoral tribunal. We cannot allow it. Costa Rica is different. It is a democracy.”

Regional Political Trends

A potential victory for Fernandez would contribute to a broader right-ward political trend observed in Latin America. Over the past year, right-wing candidates have won presidential elections in Chile, Bolivia, and Honduras. This suggests a regional shift in voter preferences towards conservative platforms, particularly those emphasizing security and strong leadership.

Synthesis

The Costa Rican presidential election presents a critical juncture for the country. Laura Fernandez’s strong showing in the polls, fueled by concerns over rising crime and a desire for decisive action, positions her as a potential leader who may fundamentally alter the country’s political and judicial landscape. However, her proposals, particularly those mirroring the controversial policies of Nayib Bukele and her stated ambitions regarding constitutional reform, have raised serious concerns about the future of Costa Rican democracy, as articulated by her main opponent, Ariel Robles. The election outcome will likely reflect not only domestic anxieties but also the broader regional shift towards right-wing governance.