Colombia's election: Meeting the Presidential contenders • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Total Peace (Paz Total): A policy initiated by President Gustavo Petro aiming to negotiate simultaneously with all remaining armed groups in Colombia to achieve a comprehensive peace accord.
• Mano Dura (Iron Fist): A hard-line security approach characterized by aggressive military action, mass incarceration, and zero-tolerance policies toward criminal organizations.
• Bukele Model: A governance style inspired by El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, emphasizing the construction of mega-prisons and aggressive crackdowns on gangs to reduce murder rates.
• Runoff Election: A second round of voting required if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the first round.
• Gulf Clan (Clan del Golfo): A major criminal organization involved in drug trafficking, whose membership has reportedly surged during the current ceasefire period.

---

1. Main Topics and Key Points

The Colombian presidential election is defined by a shift in leadership, as incumbent Gustavo Petro is ineligible for re-election due to a 2015 constitutional amendment. The primary concern for the electorate is security, which ranks higher than economic issues like unemployment, housing, or food access.

• The Candidates:
  • Iván Cepeda (Left): Represents continuity of the "Total Peace" agenda. He is described as an austere, dialogue-focused figure.
  • Rodolfo Hernández (Hard-Right): A populist "performer" who uses social media effectively. He advocates for mano dura, ending all negotiations with armed groups, and building mega-prisons.
  • Paloma Valencia (Center-Right): An establishment figure and granddaughter of a former president. She offers a more technical, policy-driven approach to security and economic reform, distancing herself from the "performative" style of Hernández.

2. The "Total Peace" Policy: Analysis and Critique

The "Total Peace" policy seeks to expand upon the 2016 FARC peace agreement by engaging groups that were not part of the original deal.

• The Logic: Negotiating with all groups simultaneously to prevent power vacuums where non-signatory groups seize territory abandoned by others.
• The Reality: The policy is widely viewed as struggling. The Red Cross reports that civilian impact from violence is at a decade-high, and cocaine production remains at record levels.
• Statistical Evidence: The Gulf Clan, a primary criminal actor, has seen its membership grow from approximately 7,000 to between 23,000 and 27,000 during the period of the ceasefire/truce.

3. Strategic Frameworks and Campaign Tactics

• The Right-Wing Strategy: Both Hernández and Valencia advocate for a tougher security stance, including closer military cooperation with the United States and a potential alignment with the Trump administration’s counter-cartel initiatives.
• The "Bukele" Influence: Rodolfo Hernández explicitly models his platform on the Salvadoran president, arguing that the "iron fist" approach is necessary to lower murder rates, despite concerns regarding human rights and due process.
• Regional Interference: The transcript notes an unusual trend where foreign leaders, such as Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa, are openly intervening in the election by suggesting that a right-wing victory would improve bilateral trade and security relations.

4. Notable Quotes and Perspectives

• Kinley Salmon (The Economist): On the contrast between candidates: "They're very sort of starkly different figures... Rodolfo Hernández is a real performer... [Iván Cepeda] is a sort of calm, more austere figure."
• On the "Total Peace" failure: "The record of total peace in the 4 years Petro's been pursuing it is, frankly, poor."
• On the upcoming runoff: "I think we're going to see a runoff... and probably also a slightly nastier [campaign] even than what we've seen so far."

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The Colombian election represents a critical juncture between two diametrically opposed visions for the country. The left, led by Cepeda, remains committed to the "Total Peace" framework despite mounting evidence of its failure to curb violence or drug trafficking. Conversely, the right-wing candidates, Hernández and Valencia, are capitalizing on public frustration with insecurity by promising a return to aggressive military tactics and the "Bukele model" of mass incarceration. With a runoff almost certain, the campaign is expected to intensify, with increasing scrutiny on the past records and scandals of the leading contenders. The outcome will determine whether Colombia continues its experiment with negotiated peace or pivots toward a more militarized, hard-line security state.