Coalition suggests stealth bombers could be used as AUKUS stop-gap | 7.30

Key Concepts

• AUKUS: A trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US, primarily focused on nuclear-powered submarines.
• Defense Strategic Review (DSR): A comprehensive review of Australia’s defense posture, which recommended significant shifts in military spending and capability.
• 3% of GDP Defense Spending: The target benchmark proposed by the Coalition and defense experts (such as Sir Angus Houston and Professor Peter Dean) for Australia’s defense budget.
• B-21 Stealth Bomber: A long-range, stealth strike aircraft proposed by the Shadow Defense Minister as a contingency capability to supplement submarine gaps.
• Collins Class Life-of-Type Extension (LOTE): The process of upgrading existing Australian submarines to extend their service life, noted as a high-risk activity.
• Strategic Choke Points: Critical maritime passages in the north and northwest of Australia that are vital for supply chains and regional security.

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1. The Case for Increased Defense Spending

Shadow Defense Minister James Patterson argues that the Australian government must be more transparent regarding the severity of regional military threats. He contends that if the public were fully aware of the likelihood of conflict and the current state of Australia’s military preparedness, there would be widespread public demand for increased defense investment.

• The Threat Landscape: Patterson highlights that the People’s Republic of China is currently undertaking the largest peacetime military buildup since World War II. He notes that while he does not believe Xi Jinping has made a definitive decision to use force, the rhetoric regarding Taiwan’s "reunification" necessitates a strategy of deterrence.
• Accounting Criticisms: Patterson criticizes the Albanese government for "pretend accounting," specifically the inclusion of military pensions in defense spending calculations to reach budget targets. He insists that Australia must reach a target of 3% of GDP in real investment to ensure genuine capability growth.

2. The US-Australia Alliance

Patterson acknowledges that public support for the US alliance has fluctuated, particularly due to concerns regarding the US political climate and the unpredictability of a potential second Trump administration.

• Institutional Resilience: Despite political shifts, Patterson argues that the alliance is "deep" and institutional. He emphasizes that the US defense, intelligence, and congressional establishments view the alliance as fundamental to US national interests.
• Strategic Interdependence: Australia provides unique assets to the US, such as the HMAS Stirling submarine base, Pine Gap intelligence facilities, and its role in the Five Eyes alliance. In return, Australia gains access to critical technology and partnerships like AUKUS.

3. AUKUS and Infrastructure Milestones

The discussion addressed the progress of HMAS Stirling in Western Australia, which is intended to host a rotational squadron of US nuclear-powered submarines.

• Conflicting Assessments: While US Admiral Paparo expressed confidence that the base could support operations "tomorrow," Patterson remains cautious. He notes that while US officials are "bullish" and supportive, many Australian strategic experts are concerned that the infrastructure build is not meeting the necessary pace to achieve full sustainment and maintenance capabilities on schedule.
• Contingency Planning: Citing reports from the UK Parliament and US congressional analysts, Patterson warns that AUKUS is only achievable with increased focus and momentum. He advocates for contingency planning to address potential "capability gaps" that may arise in the late 2020s or early 2030s, particularly if the Collins class submarine life-extension program experiences delays.

4. Proposed Capabilities: The B-21 Stealth Bomber

To mitigate the risk of a capability gap, Patterson suggests that the government evaluate the acquisition of the B-21 Stealth Bomber.

• Strategic Rationale: He argues that the B-21 provides a long-range strike capability that mirrors some of the functions of nuclear-powered submarines.
• Deterrence: The bomber could serve as a deterrent against economic or military coercion, specifically protecting Australia’s maritime supply chains at strategic choke points to the north and northwest.

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Synthesis and Conclusion

James Patterson’s position centers on the necessity of "truth-telling" in national security. He argues that the current geopolitical environment—defined by China’s rapid military expansion—requires Australia to move beyond status quo policies. His primary takeaways are:

1. Financial Commitment: Australia must commit to a genuine 3% of GDP defense spend, excluding accounting tricks.
2. Urgency in Infrastructure: The government must accelerate the development of facilities like HMAS Stirling to ensure the AUKUS timeline remains viable.
3. Contingency Strategy: Because the transition to nuclear-powered submarines is high-risk, Australia must proactively invest in supplementary capabilities, such as the B-21 stealth bomber, to ensure no period of vulnerability exists during the transition period.