CNBC Housing Market Survey: 44% of real estate agents say home prices are on the decline

Key Concepts

• CNBC Housing Market Survey: A quarterly survey of real estate agents across the U.S. to gauge on-the-ground market conditions.
• Buyer Market: A market where buyers have the advantage due to slow sales and sufficient supply.
• Seller Market: A market where sellers have the advantage due to high demand and limited supply.
• Balanced Market: A market where conditions are relatively equal for buyers and sellers.
• 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate: The interest rate on a common type of home loan.
• Delisting Homes: Removing a property from the market.
• Market Fundamentals: The underlying economic factors that influence real estate prices and sales.

CNBC Housing Market Survey: Q3 Results and Insights

This summary details the findings of CNBC's quarterly housing market survey, which gathers insights from real estate agents nationwide. The survey aims to provide a ground-level perspective on market conditions, complementing broader statistical data.

Q3 Market Conditions

• Mortgage Rates: During Q3, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage generally declined but saw an increase in mid-September.
• Market Type Perception:
  • 49% of surveyed real estate agents reported a buyer market, indicating buyers had the advantage. This was attributed to homes not selling quickly and sufficient supply.
  • 30% perceived a balanced market.
  • 21% saw a seller market, where sellers held the advantage.
• Price Trends:
  • 44% of agents observed declining prices.
  • 38% reported stable prices.
  • 20% noted increasing prices.

Seller Behavior and Market Realities

• Price Reductions: A significant 89% of agents reported at least one seller who decided to cut their price in the last quarter. This highlights a disconnect between seller optimism and actual market conditions.
• Delisted Homes: A substantial 40% of agents represented sellers who delisted their homes due to challenging market conditions. This indicates a considerable number of sellers are withdrawing from the market rather than accepting lower prices.

Outlook for the Current Quarter

• Market Improvement Expectations:
  • 48% of agents anticipate the market to improve.
  • 35% expect the market to stay the same.
  • 17% foresee sales declining.

Agent Perspectives and Survey Methodology

• Ground-Level Insights: The survey's value lies in capturing "on the ground" observations from real estate agents, which can differ from official statistics.
• Reluctance to Admit Buyer Market: Becky notes that real estate agents are often hesitant to admit to a buyer's market or tough market conditions. The survey's statistics on price cuts and delisted homes are seen as strong indicators of the true market state, potentially suggesting a more challenging environment than the 50% who classify it as seller or balanced.
• Seller Concerns: Agents reported that sellers are feeling concerned about the state of the economy and are sometimes afraid to list their homes.
• Survey Reliability: The survey is presented as a reliable method for understanding market dynamics beyond raw statistics, as agents provided "real answers about what they're seeing."

Conclusion and Takeaways

The CNBC housing market survey for Q3 reveals a market leaning towards buyers, with a majority of agents observing declining prices and a significant number of sellers cutting prices or delisting their homes. Despite some optimism for improvement in the current quarter, the data suggests that sellers may still be overestimating their property values in the face of economic uncertainty and a slowing housing market. The survey emphasizes the importance of local market fundamentals and the value of direct agent feedback in understanding the true state of the housing market.