Clashes within Gaza amid ceasefire spark fears of civil war: Analyst

Key Concepts:

• Ceasefire Fragility: The delicate and easily broken nature of the current truce between Israel and Hamas.
• Hostage Return: The process of bringing back individuals held captive, both deceased and living.
• Humanitarian Aid Reduction: Israel's decision to decrease the amount of assistance, including food, fuel, and gas, entering Gaza.
• Disarmament by Force: The potential military operation to compel Hamas to surrender its weapons.
• Hamas's Resilience: The group's ability to maintain its fighting capacity and control despite military operations against it.
• Gaza Administration Alternatives: Discussions around who should govern the Gaza Strip, contrasting Hamas with local clans or other groups.
• Collective Punishment: The act of punishing a group of people for the actions of a few, specifically in the context of withholding aid from the general population of Gaza.
• International Mediation/Guarantors: The role of countries like the US, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey in brokering and ensuring adherence to peace agreements.

Current Ceasefire Status and Hostage Returns

The Israeli military has confirmed the return of the bodies of four more deceased hostages from Gaza, facilitated by a US-brokered peace deal. This follows a similar transfer on Monday, which saw the return of four other deceased individuals and all 20 living Israeli captives in exchange for the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Officials are currently identifying the bodies, which were first transferred to the Red Cross before being handed over to the IDF and the Israel Security Agency. Despite these returns, at least 20 more deceased hostages are still believed to be in Gaza.

The current ceasefire is described as "tenuous" and is being tested by several developments:

• Aid Reduction: Israel has informed the UN that it will only allow 300 aid trucks to enter Gaza daily, halving the previously agreed amount. Deliveries of fuel and gas will also be prohibited, with exceptions only for specific humanitarian infrastructure needs.
• Hamas Reassertion: Hamas is reasserting its control over the Gaza Strip, with reports of fighters demonstrating their grip on power by executing men in the street.
• Casualties: At least 35 people have been killed since the ceasefire took effect.

Bereaved families of the remaining hostages have expressed significant frustration over the slower-than-expected process and have accused Hamas of "blatantly violating the ceasefire agreement." A representative stated, "48 hostages have not been brought back. And we demand of the Israeli government and we demand of everybody involved, especially the US and the Arab countries that vouch this agreement. We demand them to take action."

"President Trump" has threatened to disarm Hamas by force if the group does not lay down its weapons voluntarily, stating, "We have uh told them we want disarm and they will disarm and if they don't disarm we will disarm them and it'll happen quickly and perhaps violently."

The Fragility of the Ceasefire and Disarmament Prospects

Amen, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at NTU, emphasized that the ceasefire remains fragile primarily due to a lack of mutual trust between the parties. Addressing the threat of forceful disarmament by "President Trump," Amen explained the realistic implications:

• Resumption of Conflict: A forceful disarmament operation would realistically mean "the resumption of the conflict and the resumption of war."
• Hamas's Resilience: While Israel has been trying to dismantle Hamas for the last two years and has reduced its fighting capacity by "at least 80%," Hamas "is still a force in Gaza." During the current ceasefire, Hamas has been able to reassert its positions against other militias and tribal chieftains, some of whom have been backed by Israel.
• Best Option: Instead of military force, Amen suggests that the "best option for President Trump and for other um allies in the region would be to put a lot of pressure on Hamas to abide by the terms of the peace plan."
• Key Mediators: The countries best positioned to exert this pressure are Qatar, which holds a "very very strong position," along with Egypt and Turkey. These three nations have also signed "President Trump's" plan as guarantors.

Gaza's Future Administration and Risk of Civil War

The discussion also touched upon the future administration of the Gaza Strip. While some argue that Hamas is the "natural immediate authority" to administer the strip, the US and Israel clearly disagree, backing local clans instead.

• Complication of Alternatives: Amen believes that supporting these local clans can "really complicate the situation and it could possibly result in civil war in Gaza."
• Hamas's Stance: Hamas is "unlikely to lay down its arms" until a Palestinian state is established, a goal that is "way down the line" and not an immediate prospect.
• Historical Precedent: Israel's past support for certain chieftains, tribal leaders, and militias against Hamas could easily lead to "civil war and more conflict and more bloodshed in Gaza." This outcome must be avoided, especially since "President Trump has said that the war is over."
• Israel's Objective: Israel remains "on the edge about the survival of Hamas," as dismantling and destroying the group, along with rescuing hostages, has been the Israeli Prime Minister's main goal for the past two years. Despite extensive operations by the Israeli Defense Forces, they have only been able to free "more than a dozen of hostages by use of force," with the rest released through negotiations and ceasefires. Hamas has proven "quite resilient" as a fighting force, albeit with a "much much reduced fighting capacity."

The Impact of Humanitarian Aid Reduction

Israel's decision to halve humanitarian aid entering Gaza is a significant point of contention. Some analysts and relief agencies attribute previous looting of aid convoys to the "desperation of starving Gazans," suggesting that increased aid would naturally resolve the issue.

• Expert's Strong Opposition: Amen "doubt[s] it very seriously" that withholding aid is the right pressure point on Hamas. He argues that it could lead to the "collective punishment of the Palestinians in Gaza once once again."
• Ineffectiveness and Harm: Historically, withholding humanitarian aid has not resulted in the freedom of hostages or the destruction of Hamas. Instead, it has "gravely impacted the population of Gaza" and delivered "destitution" to its people.
• Call for Continued Aid: Amen stresses that humanitarian aid must continue "irrespective of how Hamas is reacting at the moment and how Israelis are really responding to Hamas's actions." The priority is that "the people of Gaza must not really suffer anymore."
• International Responsibility: He deems Israel's reduction of aid "wrong" and places a "major responsibility" on the international community, particularly the United States, to ensure the continuous flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, regardless of the evolving situation between Hamas and Israel.
• Role of "President Trump": It is "extremely important for President Trump to remain very actively engaged in the process" because his "power and weight would be absolutely important in terms of producing the positive results." Once he has declared that "the war is over," the focus should precisely be on the realization of that statement.

Conclusion

The current situation in Gaza is characterized by a highly fragile ceasefire, marked by the partial return of deceased hostages, Israel's reduction of humanitarian aid, and Hamas's reassertion of control. The prospect of a forceful disarmament of Hamas is viewed as a direct path to renewed conflict, with experts advocating for diplomatic pressure from key regional guarantors like Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey. The debate over Gaza's future administration highlights the risk of civil war if local clans are backed against a resilient Hamas, which insists on a Palestinian state before disarming. Critically, the decision to reduce humanitarian aid is strongly condemned as collective punishment, with a call for the international community, led by the United States, to ensure aid flow and actively pursue a lasting peace, aligning with the declaration that "the war is over."