CISCO Soars 7%+ on AI Orders🚨 Disney Earnings TANKS 🤯 US SHUTDOWN OVER | Live Trading Nov 13

Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript, maintaining the original language and technical precision:

Key Concepts:

• Market Sentiment: Overall bearish sentiment, with a focus on potential downside.
• Key Movers: Disney (down significantly), Cisco (strong earnings), Alibaba (AI news, long bias), Nvidia (price target hikes vs. price action), AMD (choppy trading, short/long plays), Tesla (recall, breaking levels), Meta (holding up surprisingly well).
• Economic Data: Government shutdown over, but delayed economic data creates uncertainty. Fed speakers are active.
• AI Impact: Continued discussion on AI's influence on tech stocks and data centers.
• Trading Strategies: Emphasis on patience, waiting for confirmation, trading VWAP, and managing risk.
• Sector Performance: Weakness in tech and producer manufacturing, strength in healthcare and energy/minerals.

Market Overview and Government Shutdown

The market opened with futures unchanged or slightly down. The government shutdown has ended, but the lack of economic data from the past few weeks is creating uncertainty. The NASDAQ experienced a "chopfest" in pre-market trading, initially gapping up but then giving back gains.

Individual Stock Highlights

• Disney: The stock was hit hard, trading below $110 and making new session lows. Despite positive aspects in its earnings report like an increased dividend and buyback, revenue missed expectations, particularly in linear television and film releases. Streaming remains a bright spot with significant operating income growth. The stock is trading at its lows, down over 5%. A key support level to watch is $109-$110; breaking below this could lead to further downside.
• Joby: Had a volatile day yesterday, trading between $15.50 and $17. This morning, it was trading lower, down on the news of a successful first test flight for its defense contract with the US government.
• Cisco: Showed strength, holding up nicely and staying below $80 after failing to break through it yesterday after the close. The stock was up 6.12% in pre-market. Cisco reported strong earnings, beating EPS and revenue estimates, with revenue up 8% year-over-year. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. Hyperscalers are spending aggressively on AI data centers, contributing $1.3 billion to Cisco's revenue. Despite the strong report, there's a question of whether the gap up will hold, especially with a generally weak market. The stock is trading around $78 after gapping up to $80.
• Chinese ADRs (Alibaba, JD.com, BYD): Chinese ADRs were strong, with Alibaba (BABA) up significantly due to news of a ChatGPT rival and its AI app redesign. JD.com and BYD also showed strength. Alibaba's earnings report showed a significant drop in adjusted profit year-over-year, despite revenue growth, attributed to fierce e-commerce price wars compressing margins. Alibaba is a long idea at $160, with a potential for a trend break if it can clear $170. JD.com has been trading sideways for a year, with $31 as a key support level.
• Google: In focus due to an EU investigation, which is described as a recurring yearly event. The stock was trading at yesterday's lows after a negative day.
• Starbucks: Mentioned with potential union outages.
• Fly Ly: Up 23% in pre-market.
• Nvidia: Despite price target hikes from Oppenheimer (to $265) and Susquehanna (to $230), the stock was down for three consecutive days, breaking below yesterday's low of $191. Analysts cite strong demand for AI chips and increasing hyperscaler capex plans. There's a potential gap to be filled below the current price.
• AMD: Trading choppily, with short and long plays being considered. The stock broke below $250, then bounced. There's a potential for a short if it breaks $250 again, targeting $240s.
• Tesla: Trading lower, with a potential break of $420. A recall of Powerwall 2 AC battery power systems due to fire and burn hazards was announced by the US Consumer Product Safety Commission.
• Rivian: Traded lower yesterday and continued to trade down this morning.
• Meta: Trading flat despite a significant drop yesterday. There's a strong conviction that Meta is due for a significant short opportunity, with $608 being a key level to watch. A break below $608 could lead to a sharp decline.
• Intel: Mentioned as a potential short opportunity, with selling observed at $38-$38.25.
• SanDisk (SNDK), Micron, Western Digital (WDC): These memory chip stocks are showing signs of weakness and potential rollover. SanDisk is down 5%, with $275 as a prior resistance level. Micron has a hard top at $246 and a flat bottom break at $240. Western Digital is already breaking down. These are considered potential short candidates.
• TKO: Trading higher, signing a multi-year deal with Polymarket to integrate real-time prediction markets into live events.
• Flutter: Mentioned with a price target lowered to $300 by Needham.
• DraftKings: Showing potential for a recovery, with a double bottom and a higher low formation. Holding $30 this week would look like good recovery potential.
• Grayscale Investments: Filed for an IPO to go public on the NYSE under the ticker GRAY.
• Spotify: Presenting at a conference in Europe, but not moving significantly.
• Boeing: Facing a $28 million verdict in a 737 Max case and a potential order for Airbus planes from Emirates.
• Nike: Showing strength with three consecutive days to the upside. Wells Fargo upgraded Nike to "overweight" with a price target of $75, citing a clearer path to profit and stabilization of growth. The analyst forecasts 3-4% revenue growth and 200 basis points of gross margin expansion for FY26/27. Non-classic footwear is accelerating, driving incremental growth.
• Open Door: Rallied in the past couple of days, but pulled back 5% today. A key support level to watch is $8.50-$8.60.
• Snapchat: Showing a move from $7 to $9.
• Quantum Names (QBTS, SMR): Continuing to be hit hard, down 3-5%.
• Oracle: Continues to be hit.
• Palantir: Ripping higher unexpectedly, with no clear news. It was a short idea earlier, but the unexpected move higher is noted.
• Bitcoin: Holding its bid and not breaking lows, showing relative strength compared to the market. A trend break is being watched for a potential long.
• Silver (SLV): Showing a monster breakout on the daily chart, attempting to break resistance around $48. A trend break is a potential long catalyst.
• Apple: Showing relative strength, holding VWAP and not breaking recent lows. A potential long play if it consolidates.
• SoFi: Showing a nice bounce, with potential to pick up shares on weakness.
• Robin Hood: Down 7%, with expectations of further downside and potential double-digit losses.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Down significantly, with concerns around 50-year mortgages, ethics issues at the agency, and investigations.

Economic Data and Fed Commentary

• Government Shutdown: The longest in US history has ended.
• Economic Data: Uncertainty remains about which data will be released. White House economic adviser Kevin Hasset indicated that unemployment data for October might not be released, but jobs data might still be available. Citigroup analysts believe October CPI and jobs data might still be released.
• Fed Watch: The CME Fed Watch tool shows a near 50/50 split for a 25 basis point rate cut in December. Fed speakers, including Fed's Daily, have expressed uncertainty about the December meeting decision, especially without complete economic data. Fed Powell has warned of no guarantee of a December rate cut.

Sector Performance

• Technology: Generally weak, with Nvidia, Broadcom, and Intel sharply to the downside. Tech services like Google, Palantir, and App are also struggling.
• Producer Manufacturing: Weakness observed in names like CAT, GE, LRCX, and Applied Materials (ahead of earnings).
• Healthcare: Continues to be a strong sector, with Eli Lilly making new all-time highs above $1,000. DHR and MRK are also strong. Biogen and other healthcare names are showing strength.
• Retail: Trading a little stronger.
• Energy/Minerals: Doing quite nicely.
• Communications: Showing strength.

Trading Observations and Methodologies

• Patience and Confirmation: Emphasis on not being too aggressive early in the day and waiting for market confirmation.
• VWAP Trading: Frequently used as a reference point for entries and exits, especially for shorting pops or buying dips.
• Trend Following: Identifying and trading with the prevailing trend, but also looking for trend reversals.
• Risk Management: Taking profits in pieces, setting stops, and being willing to exit trades that are not working.
• "Sell the News" Event: The market rallying during the government shutdown and then selling off after the news of its end suggests a "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic.
• Small Caps: Often seen as a place to look for longs on down days due to clearer price action.
• AI Impact: AI continues to be a major theme, driving demand for data centers and influencing tech stock performance.

Notable Quotes and Statements

• "The market's giving us that negative vibe here today."
• "If you don't hold 109, 110, it gets ugly." (Regarding Disney)
• "Come at the king, you best not miss." (Regarding shorting Nvidia)
• "The China trade still remains pretty good."
• "The market is selling the news for sure."
• "AMD is the strongest make seven name here."
• "Meta is the most broken of them all."

Conclusion/Synthesis

The market displayed significant weakness and choppiness, with a prevailing bearish sentiment. While some individual stocks like Cisco and Eli Lilly showed strength, the broader tech sector and producer manufacturing faced headwinds. The end of the government shutdown did not immediately translate into a strong market rally, suggesting a "sell the news" scenario. Traders focused on risk management, patience, and trading key levels like VWAP and support/resistance. The ongoing influence of AI on tech stocks and the uncertainty surrounding economic data and Fed policy remain key themes. The day was characterized by volatile swings, making it challenging for many traders, but opportunities were found in shorting the market and specific weak names, while healthcare and some select tech stocks showed resilience.