Chinese mercenaries fighting for Russia in Ukraine war 'not groundbreaking news', says expert

Key Concepts

• Foreign fighters in the Ukraine conflict (both pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian)
• Chinese involvement in the conflict (fighters, equipment, dual-use technology)
• The impact of social media on recruitment and propaganda
• China's position on the conflict (not entirely neutral, economic and military interests)

Foreign Fighters and the Scale of Involvement

• Zelensky's Claim: President Zelensky's claim of 150+ captured Chinese fighters should be treated with caution.
• Prior Evidence: Evidence suggests Chinese nationals have been fighting alongside Russians for some time. Russian defense bloggers posted videos of Chinese fighters in Russian combat gear last month. Photographic evidence also indicates the use of Chinese-made armored vehicles by Russia.
• Scale Comparison: 150 Chinese fighters are a small number compared to the thousands of foreign mercenaries/volunteers fighting for both sides. Ukraine has 7,000-16,000 foreign fighters in its foreign legion.
• State Denial: Countries sending citizens to fight typically deny responsibility.

Chinese Involvement: Beyond Fighters

• Dual-Use Technology: Chinese companies supply military hardware and dual-use technologies (e.g., drones) to both Russia and Ukraine.
• Economic Support: China supports Russia economically through intensified bilateral trade.
• Profiteering: Chinese companies profit by selling goods to both sides of the conflict.

Impact of Chinese Fighters

• Limited Impact: 150 fighters will not significantly impact the war, which involves half a million troops on each side across a 2,000 km front line.
• Symbolic Gesture: Reinforcing the Russian military with 1,200-3,000 additional personnel is more symbolic than strategically significant.
• Comparison to Polish Fighters: The symbolism of Chinese fighters is less significant than the thousands of Polish nationals fighting for Ukraine.

Social Media and Recruitment

• Propaganda and Disinformation: Social media is a useful tool for spreading propaganda, information, and disinformation to influence target nations or one's own people.
• Recruitment Tool: Social media can be used for recruitment, though not through official channels.
• Not Revolutionary: This is not a new tactic; terrorist groups have used social media for recruitment for years.
• Not a Game-Changer: Social media recruitment is not a game-changer in the war.

China's Position and Interests

• Not Neutral: China is not entirely neutral and has a vested interest in the conflict.
• Conflicting Interests: China wants the conflict to end because it disrupts global trade. However, it also sees the conflict as an opportunity for its military (PLA) to learn from the combat experience of the Russians and the way the war is being fought.
• Data Collection: China is likely collecting data and seeking firsthand experience by turning a blind eye to citizens who join the Russian military and then share their experiences with the Chinese regulars.

Conclusion

The Ukraine conflict has drawn in various international actors, including foreign fighters and countries providing economic and military support. While President Zelensky's claim of captured Chinese fighters highlights one aspect of this involvement, it's crucial to consider the broader context. The number of Chinese fighters is relatively small compared to other foreign contingents. China's involvement extends beyond individual fighters, encompassing the supply of dual-use technology, economic support for Russia, and a strategic interest in learning from the conflict. China is playing both sides to some extent, seeking to profit economically while also gathering valuable military insights.