China sharply criticizes US toppling of Maduro | DW News

Key Concepts

• All-Weather Strategic Partnership: The term China uses to describe its relationship with Venezuela, implying consistent support regardless of circumstances.
• Hegemony: China’s accusation towards the US regarding its actions in Venezuela, suggesting dominance and interference.
• Oil-for-Cash Deals: The primary economic arrangement between China and Venezuela, where Venezuela provides oil in exchange for financial loans from China.
• Rare Earths: Valuable mineral resources present in Venezuela that both China and the US have strategic interests in securing.
• Unilateral Action: The US’s intervention in Venezuela, undertaken without broad international consensus.
• Modus Operandi: China’s typical approach to international relations – slow, methodical, and focused on wearing down opposition.

China and the Venezuelan Crisis: A DW Analysis

Introduction

The attempted seizure of power in Venezuela, targeting President Nicolas Maduro, presents significant challenges for China. This is due to China’s long-standing political and economic ties with Caracas, dating back to the era of Hugo Chavez. Venezuela has consistently been China’s most reliable partner in the Americas, and the current situation threatens to disrupt this relationship.

The Nature of the China-Venezuela Relationship

China has characterized its relationship with Venezuela as an “all-weather strategic partnership.” However, DW China analyst Clifford Kunan argues this is largely an economic partnership, not necessarily a robust political one. While China has expressed strong verbal support for Maduro, condemning US intervention as an act of “hegemony” and displaying “anger and outrage,” concrete actions to directly support him have been limited. As Kunan states, “you have to go by…what do I say and what do I do.” This suggests a cautious approach, recognizing the limitations of its influence in a region heavily influenced by the United States.

Economic Implications: Oil and Debt

The core of the China-Venezuela relationship revolves around oil. China has been a major importer of Venezuelan oil, and the current instability poses a threat to this supply. Sanctions imposed by the US have already forced Venezuelan oil to be shipped under flags of convenience (e.g., Malaysian flags) to circumvent restrictions. The removal of Maduro complicates this further.

Venezuela reportedly owes China approximately $20 billion through “oil-for-cash deals.” China will naturally seek to recover these funds, but a disrupted oil supply will hinder its ability to do so. Kunan highlights the multiple “headaches” China faces, emphasizing the unprecedented nature of the situation. Beyond oil, both China and the US are interested in Venezuela’s reserves of “rare earths,” adding another layer of complexity to the situation. Rare earths are critical minerals used in various high-tech applications, creating strategic competition.

Geopolitical Considerations: Taiwan and US Power

The situation in Venezuela raises questions about China’s potential actions regarding Taiwan. Superficially, the US intervention might embolden China to act against Taiwan, demonstrating a perceived “lawless” behavior by the US. However, Kunan argues the opposite is more likely. The US demonstration of willingness to act unilaterally and project power could give China “pause” before considering an invasion of Taiwan. He notes, “US power is really is something that we’re all learning again in the last in the last few months that that that it didn't go anywhere.”

Impact on US-China Relations

The Venezuelan crisis is unlikely to improve already strained US-China relations, particularly given the ongoing trade war. While China has interests in Venezuela, its strategic focus remains primarily on the South China Sea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. Kunan suggests China will likely respond with its typical “modus operandi” – seeking talks and potentially using the situation as leverage in other negotiations. He concludes that the geopolitical landscape has been “completely thrown wide open,” and the defining US-China relationship will need to be “recalibrated” as a result of these events.

Conclusion

The crisis in Venezuela presents a complex dilemma for China. While it maintains a strong economic partnership with the country and verbally supports its government, its ability to intervene directly is limited by geographical distance and the US’s sphere of influence. The situation threatens China’s oil supply, its financial investments, and its access to strategic resources like rare earths. Ultimately, the events in Venezuela are likely to exacerbate tensions with the US and force China to reassess its strategic priorities in the Americas, while simultaneously prompting a more cautious approach towards Taiwan.