China's Xi hosts grand military parade flanked by Putin and Kim | East Asia Tonight (Sep 3)

East Asia Tonight - Summary

Key Concepts:

Military parade in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.
Xi Jinping's consolidation of power and vision for China's global role.
China-Russia-North Korea alignment vs. US.
Deterrence as a key theme in China's military modernization.
South Korea's increased defense spending and focus on operational control (OPCON).
Insider trading allegations at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX).
US restrictions on tech flows to China, particularly regarding chips.
New gas pipeline deal between Russia and China.
Rising yields on Japanese long-dated bonds.
Toyota's investment in electric vehicle production in Europe.

China's Military Parade and Xi Jinping's Message

Main Event: China staged a massive military parade in Beijing to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.
Xi Jinping's Speech: Declared the "great rejuvenation" of the Chinese nation "unstoppable" and warned the world faces a choice between peace and war.
Diplomatic Showcase: The parade featured prominent attendance by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, highlighting China's diplomatic influence. Over 20 heads of state and government were present.
Military Display: Showcased new weapons, including the full strategic nuclear triad (land, air, and sea cruise missiles), hypersonic precision strike weapons, and giant underwater drones. State media hailed these weapons as China's "strategic ace" to safeguard sovereignty and dignity.
Message of Deterrence: China sought to frame its show of strength as a safeguard for peace and progress, emphasizing deterrence.
Public Sentiment: While the parade was heavily controlled, many Beijing residents gathered near the parade route to experience the "on-site atmosphere," even though they were restricted from entering.
Xi's Leadership: This was Xi Jinping's third military parade since taking office in 2012, marking the growing importance of Victory Day anniversaries under his leadership. Unlike the 2015 parade, Xi's speech was brief and lacked specific announcements like troop cuts, suggesting his firm control over the PLA.
James Char's Analysis: Noted the significance of Xi giving "pride of place" to Kim Jong-un and Putin. Contrasted this with the "big four policemen" of WWII, questioning if Xi was standing with the "right people." Highlighted Xi's consolidated control over the PLA since 2015.
Olivia Seong's Analysis: Emphasized that the military hardware "spoke for itself," reflecting the modernization drive. Noted the buzz on social media, both within and outside China.

China-Russia-North Korea Alignment and US Response

Kim Jong-un's Visit: Kim Jong-un accepted an invitation from Vladimir Putin to visit Russia after talks in Beijing. He pledged full support for Moscow.
Putin's Thanks: Putin thanked Kim for sending special forces to fight in Ukraine, claiming it was Kim's idea. He praised their courage in recapturing the Kursk region.
US Reaction: Donald Trump accused China, Russia, and North Korea of "conspiring against the US" in a Truth Social post. He also extended well wishes to Xi and the Chinese people.
Trump's Stance: Trump stated he is not worried about China forming an axis against the US, claiming China needs the US more than the US needs China.
Limon Suk's Report: Highlighted the "brotherly display" between Kim and Putin, but some analysts see it as mostly symbolic. Kim aims to show powerful allies, while Putin reinforces ties with North Korea. South Korea is closely monitoring these developments.
James Char's Perspective: The US has been cautious due to China's military progress. The PLA aims to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. An arms race has already begun due to technological advances.

South Korea's Defense Budget Increase

Budget Hike: South Korea's defense ministry proposed the biggest increase in military spending in seven years, aiming for nearly $48 billion next year (an 8% jump).
OPCON: A large part of the budget is allocated to reclaiming wartime operational control (OPCON) of its forces from the US.
Three-Axis Deterrence: $6 billion will be allocated to bolstering the "three-axis deterrence system" against North Korea, including missile defense, preemptive strike, and retaliation systems.
Military Acquisitions: South Korea plans to buy SM3 shipborne missiles and develop homegrown long-range air-to-air missiles, integrating AI into combat systems.

Economic News

HKEX Investigation: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing shares ended the day in the red amid allegations of insider trading involving regulatory staff.
China's Economic Data: Mainland equities showed signs of fatigue after a solid run. A private sector survey showed China's services activity grew at its fastest pace in 15 months.
US Chip Restrictions: The US is tightening curbs on chips to China, with TSMC being the latest target. Waivers allowing TSMC to send essential gear to its plant in Nanjing have been revoked.
Russia-China Pipeline: Russia and China signed a deal to build a new cross-border gas pipeline capable of supplying 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually.
Japanese Bond Yields: Japanese long bonds fell, with the 30-year yield hitting an all-time high due to global concerns about high-debt economies.
Toyota's Investment: Toyota will build its first fully electric model at its factory in the Czech Republic and invest in a new battery assembly facility.
Latte Hotel Expansion: Japan's Latte Holdings and South Korea's Latte Corporation plan to open more than a dozen hotels in Japan by 2034, targeting the growing tourism industry.

Thailand's Political Crisis

Dissolution of Parliament: The acting prime minister of Thailand moved to dissolve parliament.
New Prime Minister Candidate: The leader of the Bumjay Thai Party, Anutin Chanakun, claims to have the support of 146 lawmakers to become the new prime minister.
Conditions for Support: The People's Party will support Chanakun if he agrees to dissolve parliament within 4 months, hold a referendum amending the constitution, and not try to become the majority party.

Analysis of China's Military Hardware

DF-61 ICBM: China's most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile, not seen in rehearsals or social media. Estimated range of 18,000 km, putting it on par with US ICBM systems.
JL-3 SLBM: A submarine-launched ballistic missile with a range of over 10,000 km, launched from Chinese Jin-class submarines, making its deployment hard to predict.
HSU-100 UUV: An unmanned underwater vehicle for long-term observation missions in shallower waters, potentially collecting data on enemy submarines.
AJX-002 UUV: Based on the Russian Poseidon system, potentially capable of delivering a nuclear payload that detonates underwater, creating a radioactive tsunami.
Drones: Increased use of laser weapons and unmanned systems on platforms, reflecting lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.

Conclusion

The broadcast highlighted China's growing military and diplomatic power, particularly its alignment with Russia and North Korea, and the US's response. The military parade served as a display of China's modernization and a message of deterrence. South Korea's increased defense spending reflects regional tensions. Economic news covered various challenges and opportunities in East Asia, including insider trading allegations, chip restrictions, and new energy deals.