China’s latest effort to boost birth rate includes taxing condoms and other contraceptives

Key Concepts

• Demographic Crisis: China’s rapidly declining birth rate and aging population.
• One-Child Policy: A former government policy restricting most families to one child.
• Condom Tax: A 13% tax imposed on contraceptives, intended to encourage births.
• Hookuo (Household Registration Papers): Documents previously required for marriage registration, now relaxed.
• Fertility Rate: The average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime.
• Structural Changes: Fundamental shifts in societal norms, economic conditions, and government policies needed to address the demographic crisis.

China’s Demographic Shift and Pro-Natal Policies

China is currently facing a significant demographic crisis characterized by a rapidly declining birth rate and an aging population. In 2025, only 7.9 million babies were born, a 17% decrease from the 9.54 million births recorded in 2024. This decline is compounded by a growing elderly population; approximately 22% of Chinese citizens, roughly 310 million people (nearly the entire population of the United States), are aged 60 and above. Government projections anticipate a population decrease of 0.2% annually between 2025 and 2035, placing substantial strain on economic development and social welfare systems.

Policy Reversals: From Restriction to Encouragement

The current situation represents a dramatic shift from China’s previous population control policies. The long-standing one-child policy, implemented for decades, fundamentally altered family norms and individual lifestyles. This policy was initially relaxed in 2015, allowing families to have two children, and further expanded in 2021 to permit three children. The government has also committed to fully covering all out-of-pocket childbirth costs by 2026, with some local authorities already providing subsidies.

Economic and Social Incentives

Beyond policy changes, the Chinese government is implementing a range of economic and social incentives to encourage larger families. In 2024, the mandatory retirement age for workers was raised to address workforce shortages and the increasing number of retirees. Visible efforts to promote family values are also apparent in public spaces, such as the renovation of parks with symbols of love and happiness. Marriage procedures have been streamlined; since 2025, couples can marry anywhere in China without presenting hukou (household registration papers), and wedding ceremonies can now be held in unconventional locations like subway stations. Some local governments are offering cash gifts of up to 1,500 yuan to newly married couples.

The "Condom Tax" and its Symbolic Significance

A notable and controversial measure is the imposition of a 13% tax on condoms and other contraceptives, effective from the start of 2026. This “condom tax” is viewed as a symbolic end to the era of birth restrictions, although its practical impact remains to be seen.

Initial Data and Expert Analysis

While early data suggests some positive trends, the long-term effectiveness of these policies is uncertain. Marriage registrations increased by 8.5% year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2025. However, experts caution that an increase in marriages does not automatically translate to a rise in birth rates.

According to analysis, the legacy of the one-child policy continues to exert a strong influence. Many individuals, particularly those from the one-child generation, are accustomed to and often prefer smaller family sizes, especially in urban areas. The high cost of living and the perceived opportunity costs of parenthood often outweigh the financial incentives offered by the government. As stated in the video, “the living costs, you know, the opportunity costs of parenthood, they are much higher than the benefits from the financial incentives.”

Need for Structural Changes

Experts emphasize the need for more substantial, “structural changes” to address the core issues driving the demographic crisis. These changes would involve addressing fundamental societal norms, economic conditions, and government policies to create a more supportive environment for raising families. The “condom tax,” while symbolically significant, is considered insufficient on its own to counter the implications of a shrinking and aging population.