China 'focusing on solutions' to combat emissions and climate change, analyst says • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• COP 30: The 30th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, a major international climate summit.
• Global Emissions: Greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere by human activities, contributing to climate change.
• Net Zero: A state where the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere is balanced by the amount removed.
• Renewables: Energy sources that are naturally replenished, such as solar and wind power.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): Vehicles powered by electricity stored in rechargeable batteries.
• Green Technology: Technologies that aim to reduce environmental impact and promote sustainability.
• NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution): A climate action plan submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement, outlining their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
• Fossil Fuels: Fuels formed from the remains of ancient organisms, such as coal, oil, and natural gas.
• Energy Security: The reliable availability of sources of energy at an acceptable price.
• Clean Tech Manufacturing: The production of technologies that reduce environmental impact.
• Capacity Factor: The ratio of a power plant's actual output over a period of time to its potential output if it operated at full nameplate capacity continuously.
• Dual Carbon Targets: China's goals to achieve carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.

China's Pivotal Role in Global Climate Action

The discussion centers on China's significant and complex role in the global effort to combat climate change, particularly in light of COP 30. Despite the absence of leaders from major emitters like China, India, and the United States at the summit, China's actions are deemed critical due to its position as the world's largest emitter and its leading role in clean energy development.

China's Clean Energy Revolution

China is spearheading a substantial clean energy revolution, characterized by:

• Massive Renewable Energy Deployment: The country is installing solar and wind capacity at a rate exceeding the rest of the world combined. For instance, a desert area was transformed with 6 million solar panels, generating 500 million kilowatt-hours annually, enough to power 4.5 million homes.
• Dominance in Clean Energy Manufacturing: China manufactures a significant majority of global clean energy technologies. In 2024, it produced 92% of the world's solar modules and 82% of wind turbines.
• Leading Electric Vehicle Market: China is at the forefront of EV adoption, with almost half of new car sales being electric battery-powered or plug-in hybrids in the past year, according to the International Energy Agency.
• Foreign Investment in Clean Energy: Since 2023, Chinese companies have announced $168 billion in foreign investments in clean energy, utilizing this sector to expand political and economic relationships.

China's Climate Commitments and Criticisms

China has committed to reducing its emissions by 7-10% by 2035. While this is a welcome development from the world's largest emitter, experts argue that greater cuts are necessary to limit global warming to 1.5°C or well below 2°C.

Reasons Behind China's Clean Energy Push

According to Chris Alet, a research fellow at Chatham House, China's commitment to clean energy is driven by multiple factors:

• Avoiding Climate Vulnerabilities: China faces significant risks from climate change impacts.
• Economic Development and Industrial Investment: The clean energy sector presents substantial economic opportunities.
• International Trade and New Markets: China aims to establish dominance in global green technology markets.
• Energy Security: As a major importer of fossil fuels, China is keen to reduce its reliance on external sources.

The US Abdication and China's Ascendancy

There is a perception that China is stepping into the void left by the United States' diminished role in climate diplomacy. Chris Alet expresses concern over the US's historical responsibility as the largest emitter and its current actions, which are seen as disruptive, citing an incident at the International Maritime Organization where the US reportedly disrupted a deal on decarbonizing shipping. The US's focus on selling fossil fuels, particularly under Donald Trump, is also highlighted. This shift places the onus on other countries, including China, to drive climate action.

China's Leadership Dynamic

While China is de facto becoming a leader in clean energy, its classification as a developing country within the UNFCCC framework presents a complex dynamic. Historically, China has been reluctant to claim leadership, but its actions in clean energy and policy frameworks are increasingly positioning it as such. Other nations are looking to China for hope and direction in a challenging climate landscape.

The Paradox of Coal Reliance

A significant concern is China's continued reliance on coal, with a surge in investment in its coal sector reaching a decade-high. While the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) includes a commitment to gradually reduce coal's share in the energy mix, the specifics remain unclear. The imperative to use newly built coal-fired power plants is a point of worry. However, it's noted that China's coal-fired power plants have a relatively low capacity factor, meaning they are not used as frequently, thus mitigating some of the emissions impact. The build-out of coal is partly attributed to China's overarching concern for energy security, ensuring a stable electricity supply while transitioning to renewables and batteries. Observers are hoping to see a decline in China's coal consumption in the coming years.

Conclusion

China's role in the global climate trajectory is undeniably immense. As the world's largest emitter and a dominant force in clean energy manufacturing and deployment, its actions have a material impact on the extent of climate change. While its commitment to clean energy is strong, driven by economic, strategic, and security considerations, its continued reliance on coal presents a significant challenge. The international community is looking to China for leadership and practical solutions, even as the US appears to be retreating from its climate responsibilities. The success of global climate goals hinges significantly on China's ability to balance its energy needs with ambitious emission reductions and a swift transition away from fossil fuels.