China 'cannot peacefully coexist with democracies,' says Taiwan's deputy foreign minister

Key Concepts

• Taiwan's Sovereignty: The status of Taiwan as a self-governing democracy, distinct from the People's Republic of China (PRC).
• PRC's Position on Taiwan: Beijing's claim that Taiwan is a breakaway province and its intention to unify it with the mainland, by force if necessary.
• Deterrence: Taiwan's strategy of strengthening its defense capabilities and working with allies to prevent an invasion.
• U.S.-Taiwan Relations: The complex security and economic ties between the United States and Taiwan, including arms sales and trade.
• Geopolitical Implications of Ukraine: Taiwan's observation of the conflict in Ukraine as a precedent for its own security concerns regarding China.
• China's Military Modernization: The rapid development of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and its implications for regional security.
• Japan's Stance on Taiwan: Japan's increasing concern over China's actions and its potential response to an invasion of Taiwan.
• Democracy vs. Authoritarianism: The broader ideological competition framing the Taiwan Strait issue.

Taiwan's Principled Position and U.S. Relations

The transcript details a conversation with Taiwan's Deputy Foreign Minister, Chen Ming-chi, at the Halifax International Security Forum. The discussion centers on Taiwan's precarious geopolitical situation, particularly in light of President Trump's recent conversation with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. China's government stated that Xi outlined China's "principled position on Taiwan," which views the self-governing democracy of 23 million residents as a breakaway province, despite Taiwan never having been part of communist China.

U.S. Support and Deterrence Strategy

Taiwan is closely observing the conflict in Ukraine, viewing it as an "existential battle" that has global implications. Deputy Foreign Minister Chen Ming-chi emphasized Taiwan's commitment to supporting Ukraine's cause, stating, "We don't want to have the aggressors having their way. So we have to work together to support this whole cause. That's very important for us."

Regarding the U.S. relationship, Chen stated that Taiwan is "watching that closely" in relation to a U.S.-drafted peace plan for Ukraine. Taiwan's primary focus is on "strengthen[ing] our defense capabilities so that, you know, work with our ally, work with our likeminded partner, so as to provide a better deterrence." The strategy is to "deter any aggressor beforehand, rather than in the middle of the prolonged war."

When questioned about President Trump's claims that Xi Jinping promised not to invade Taiwan during Trump's term, Chen stated, "We don't make any speculation on that. We don't base our defense idea, concept on any empty promise."

China's Military Modernization and Invasion Scenarios

The transcript highlights China's "fastest military modernizations in world history" by its People's Liberation Army (PLA). The U.S. believes this buildup is designed to prevent U.S. intervention in a Taiwan invasion, with a potential invasion date set for 2027.

Chen Ming-chi described Taiwan's need to prepare for two scenarios: "One is a d-day situation, the other one is a day-to-day situation." This refers to the possibility of a full-scale invasion ("d-day") or ongoing pressure and harassment ("day-to-day"). He stressed the importance of investing in and strengthening Taiwan's defense, particularly in air and naval capabilities, stating, "If we fail to meet the challenge from the air, on the water, our people will lose confidence in our own defense."

U.S. Arms Sales and Defense Talks

U.S. weapons have historically been crucial for Taiwan's defense. The Trump administration recently approved a $700 million arms sale, including an air defense system, and a prior $330 million sale of aircraft parts. However, the administration has opted to sell new weapons and parts rather than drawing down from U.S. stocks for faster delivery. Additionally, U.S.-Taiwan defense talks have been downgraded, and President Lai Ching-te did not transit the U.S. during the first year of the Trump administration, unlike his predecessor.

Despite these developments, Chen expressed confidence in the bilateral security relationship, stating, "We are very solid about our bilateral relationship, in terms of security." He acknowledged that trade is a separate issue, noting, "Your president is a tough negotiator, and ours has to protect our own interests."

Economic Pressures and Japan's Role

The U.S. has threatened tariffs on Taiwanese-built semiconductors, the world's most advanced. Current U.S. tariffs on Taiwan's exports stand at 20%. The U.S. also demands Taiwan increase its defense spending, a request Taiwan finds challenging.

A significant development is Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who stated that a Chinese assault on Taiwan would lead to a Japanese response. Takaichi declared, "If China were to deploy battleships and involve the use of force, I believe this could be deemed a situation threatening Japan's survival." This statement drew a strong reaction from China, with its consul general in Osaka posting a deleted threat on X and China's foreign minister stating Takaichi had "crossed a red line."

During the call between Xi Jinping and President Trump, Xi framed Taiwan in the context of World War II and Japan, a move Chen believes is an overreaction. He argued, "China is over-reacting to the whole situation. Their aggressive behavior, not only in the Taiwan strait, in the east China sea, in the south China sea. So China is the party to be blamed. I think, you know, they are good at twisting reality. So it's them who provoked."

Chen emphasized the critical importance of Japan's support in the event of an invasion or blockade, stating, "Oh, very important. I think any country, any democracy's support matters to Taiwan's defense." He reiterated the lesson learned from Ukraine: "we have to work together with our like-minded partner for that. Never believe in the ccp's propaganda. They just cannot peacefully coexist with democracies. This is about a competition between democracy and authoritarianism."

Conclusion

The transcript underscores Taiwan's urgent need to bolster its defenses and secure international support in the face of increasing pressure from China. The conflict in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder of the potential consequences of aggression, and Taiwan is actively seeking to deter any hostile actions through strengthened capabilities and alliances. The evolving stance of Japan and the complex dynamics of U.S.-Taiwan relations, including economic pressures, are critical factors in Taiwan's ongoing struggle to maintain its sovereignty in a region marked by geopolitical competition between democratic and authoritarian systems.