Chilean far-right looms large in election dominated by rising crime • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• General Election in Chile: The focus of the discussion, with a Communist candidate leading in polls but likely to lose in a runoff.
• Yanette Hara: The Communist candidate representing a left-wing coalition, a continuation of the current government.
• Antonio Kast: A far-right candidate from the Republican party, likely to be Hara's opponent in the runoff.
• 2019 Protests: A significant period of social unrest in Chile that led to a constitutional process.
• Constitutional Processes: Two failed attempts to draft a new constitution, one liberal and one far-right, both rejected by the population.
• Crime and Immigration: Key issues driving voter sentiment, with a perceived increase in both.
• Perception vs. Reality of Crime: A significant gap exists between actual crime rates in Chile and public perception of safety.
• Polarization: The election is described as highly polarized, with extreme positions on both the left and right.
• Collapse of the Mainstream Right: A trend observed in Chile, similar to Europe and the Americas, where moderate right-wing parties have diminished.
• Venezuelan Migration: A major driver of immigration in South America, with a significant impact on Chile.
• Immigration Impact: The speed and concentration of immigration in specific areas have had notable consequences in Chile.

Chilean General Election: Analysis of Key Issues and Political Landscape

This summary details the analysis of the general election taking place in Chile, focusing on the political landscape, key candidates, and the issues shaping the vote. The discussion features Javier Sahura, a professor of comparative politics at Queen Mary University of London.

Main Topics and Key Points

The central theme is the upcoming Chilean general election, where the ruling left-wing coalition's Communist candidate, Yanette Hara, is leading in polls but is projected to lose in a second-round runoff. This outcome is attributed to a combination of factors, including the unpopularity of the current government and significant anti-communist sentiment in the country.

The election is characterized by a large field of right-wing rivals, with Antonio Kast, a representative of the far-right Republican party, being the most likely candidate to advance to the runoff against Hara. This marks Kast's third presidential bid.

Historical Context and Political Shifts

A significant shift in Chile's political landscape is linked to the widespread protests of 2019 during the center-right government of Sebastián Piñera. These protests initiated a constitutional process. The first attempt at a new constitution, described as highly liberal and left-leaning, was overwhelmingly rejected by over 60% of the population. A subsequent constitutional process, where the far-right secured a majority in the constitutional council, also resulted in a rejected proposal.

This dual failure of constitutional processes, coupled with a perceived rise in crime and immigration, has created an environment where the far-right has gained traction. Sahura argues that these elements have paved the way for a potential far-right government in the near future.

Key Issues: Security and Immigration

Security and immigration are identified as the paramount issues for Chilean voters. Interestingly, there is a notable lack of significant policy divergence among candidates on these matters. Chile, historically one of the safest countries in the region, has experienced a rapid increase in crime, leading to a heightened public perception of insecurity. This perception gap is exacerbated by politicians leveraging the issue.

Both Yanette Hara and far-right candidates like Antonio Kast and Kaiser propose similar measures to curb immigration and address crime. However, the far-right candidates, Kast and Kaiser, are noted for their harsh rhetoric regarding immigrants, a style reminiscent of the far-right discourse in Europe. This is a unique characteristic for the far-right in Latin America, where immigration is not typically a central campaign issue.

Political Polarization and Societal Divides

The election is described as highly polarized, a phenomenon amplified by Chile's presidential system, which often forces voters to choose between starkly contrasting options. The 2021 election is cited as an example of this polarization, featuring Kast against Boric, who represented a more traditional left-wing government.

Sahura posits that the current polarization is not solely due to the left becoming more extreme but rather a consequence of the "collapse of the mainstream right." This trend, he notes, is observable globally, including in Spain, France, the UK, and Argentina, and potentially within the US Republican party. The absence of a strong, moderate right-wing presence leaves a void that more extreme ideologies can fill.

The Immigration Debate in Chile

The immigration debate in Chile echoes similar discussions in Europe, largely driven by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing their country. Chile, with a population of approximately 19-20 million, has seen a significant increase in its immigrant population, rising from 1.6-2% in the early 2010s to nearly 10% currently. This rapid increase over a seven to eight-year period has had substantial cultural and social consequences.

The impact is not solely about the absolute numbers but also about the speed of change and the concentration of immigrants in specific areas, which intensifies the perceived effects on local communities. The far-right has effectively utilized this immigration argument to bolster its support.

Conclusion

The Chilean general election is at a critical juncture, marked by a polarized political climate and a public deeply concerned about security and immigration. While the left-wing candidate leads in initial polls, the momentum appears to favor the far-right candidate, Antonio Kast, in a potential runoff. This outcome is shaped by historical events, the failure of constitutional reform processes, and the effective exploitation of immigration and crime concerns by the far-right, all within the context of a collapsing mainstream right. The rapid and concentrated nature of immigration has significantly impacted Chilean society, providing fertile ground for the far-right's narrative.