Chart Master: Is it time to sell TJX?

Key Concepts:

• Relative Performance Analysis (20-year, 5-year, 3-month, 1-month)
• Trend Line Analysis
• 150-day Moving Average
• Bullish to Bearish Reversal
• Consumer Discretionary Sector

Relative Performance Analysis:

The analysis begins by establishing TJX's historical outperformance. Over a 20-year period, TJX has outperformed the S&P 500 by a factor of five and even surpassed Microsoft. However, the analysis shifts to a shorter-term perspective to identify potential changes in this trend.

• 5-Year Performance: TJX significantly outperformed both the market and the consumer discretionary sector.
• 3-Month Performance: A reversal begins to emerge, with TJX's performance lagging behind the S&P 500 and the consumer discretionary sector. TJX is up 3-4%
• 1-Month Performance: The trend becomes more pronounced, with TJX experiencing a decline while both the consumer discretionary sector and the overall market are up.

Technical Chart Analysis:

The analysis uses three charts of TJX stock to illustrate the potential bearish reversal.

1. Chart 1 (Unannotated): A clean chart is presented without any technical indicators or drawings to provide an unbiased view of the stock's price action.
2. Chart 2 (150-day Moving Average): A 150-day moving average is added to the chart. The flattening of this moving average is identified as a potential signal of a shift from a bullish to a bearish trend. A flat 150-day moving average often indicates the beginning of a bullish to bearish reversal.
3. Chart 3 (Trend Line): A trend line is drawn on the chart. The analysis suggests that the stock price is likely to retest this trend line.

Price Target and Prediction:

Based on the chart analysis, the prediction is for a minimum 5-7% decline in TJX stock price. The ultimate target is around $110 per share.

Notable Quotes:

• "Often that is the beginning of what is characterized as a bullish to bearish reversal." (Referring to the flattening 150-day moving average)
• "And if and as we check back to that trend line...we're looking at another 5 to 7% decline. But ultimately I think we're headed to around 110 a share."

Synthesis/Conclusion:

While TJX has been a high-performing stock historically, recent performance data and technical chart analysis suggest a potential bearish reversal. The flattening 150-day moving average and the anticipated retest of the trend line indicate a likely decline in the stock price, with a target of around $110 per share. The recommendation is to consider selling the stock based on these technical indicators.