CEO of the MSC Franke: 'We don't want to manage our own security without the US'

Key Concepts

• European Security Consciousness: Increased awareness in Europe regarding the necessity of taking greater responsibility for its own security, spurred by geopolitical events.
• European Cohesion: A renewed sense of unity and coordinated action among European nations, particularly in response to external pressures.
• Multilateralism: The principle of cooperation among three or more states for their mutual benefit, often through international organizations.
• South-South Cooperation: Collaboration and partnerships between developing countries.
• Ad Hoc Coalitions of the Willing: Temporary alliances formed by countries to address specific issues or challenges.
• Territorial Sovereignty: The principle that a state has exclusive authority over its territory and population.

G20 Summit and the War in Ukraine

The discussion begins by addressing the G20 summit and its overshadowing by the war in Ukraine. Benedict Franker, CEO of the Munich Security Conference, distinguishes between the G20 summit in Johannesburg and concurrent discussions in Geneva and Washington. He notes a "new momentum" in important negotiations, "reinvigorated positions," and "European cohesion," which he considers a positive development, albeit one that he wishes hadn't been solely triggered by "surprising US proposals."

Donald Trump's Presidency and European Security

Franker asserts that Donald Trump's presidency has significantly heightened Europe's awareness of the need to improve and seriously address its own security. He acknowledges past criticisms of European "free riding" but emphasizes the "enormous structural change" observed in recent months, particularly since JD Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference in February. He states that the US side has acknowledged and expressed surprise at the extent of these changes.

Europe's Capacity for Self-Security

When questioned about Europe's ability to manage its security without US assistance in the near future, Franker is direct: "In the foreseeable future, we are helpless and we are almost defenseless." However, he clarifies that Europe does not wish to manage its security without the US but rather to keep the US "firmly entrenched in European security." He points out that even without US involvement, NATO remains the world's strongest military alliance, and European militaries (including Great Britain) possess capabilities to build upon. He stresses the need for Europe to "get serious," "improve," "create synergies," "double down," and "spend more," concluding that Europe is "on the right track."

Importance of the Ukraine War Outcome for European Security

Franker unequivocally states that the outcome of the Ukraine war is "key" to European security. He argues that if Europe fails to uphold principles like territorial sovereignty and support for like-minded countries, and instead "let[s] them die out in the cold," then all structural efforts in military development, conscription, and spending will be meaningless. This failure would "undermine our credibility as an actor globally," making it imperative that "we must not let Ukraine lose this war."

Europe's Ability to Support Ukraine Independently

Regarding the possibility of the US losing interest in supporting Ukraine, Franker believes Europe "can" step up. He cites Europe's "financial means" and the "political will within the population" as evidenced by recent polls. He emphasizes the need for Europe to "put our money and our political weight where our words have been over the last 3 years."

The G20 Summit and US Absence

Discussing the G20 summit, Franker reiterates that the war in Ukraine cast a "long shadow." He references South Africa's Foreign Minister's statement that the G20 should send a clear message that "the world can move on with or without the US." Franker confirms that this message was delivered. He expresses regret over the US absence, stating that "multilateralism is not the same as US foreign policy leadership." While acknowledging the South African presidency's diplomatic success in achieving a final communiqué that included climate change, he also describes it as a "pretty sad situation" that such an outcome is cause for celebration, highlighting the current polarization of international diplomacy.

The Future of Multilateralism

Franker characterizes the post-World War II order as being underpinned by the Western alliance and US involvement. He observes that multilateralism is now "moving ahead without the US in certain instances." However, he maintains that multilateralism is "always better if the world's richest and most powerful country is involved and actually drives it." He notes the rise of "efforts led by the global south on very specific topics," increased "south south cooperation," and the emergence of "ad hoc coalitions of the willing." He concludes that multilateralism "isn't dead but it's also not healthy."

Conclusion

The conversation with Benedict Franker highlights a critical juncture for European security and international multilateralism. Europe is experiencing a heightened sense of responsibility for its own defense, driven by geopolitical realities, and is making structural changes, though still reliant on US engagement. The outcome of the war in Ukraine is deemed crucial for Europe's global credibility. While multilateralism continues to evolve, particularly with the rise of the global south and ad hoc coalitions, its health is seen as diminished without the active leadership of the United States.