Centerra Gold Update | Paul Tomory, Ryan Snyder and Jimmy Connor

By Jimmy Connor

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Centa Gold: Operational Overview, Growth Pipeline & Capital Allocation – Detailed Summary

Key Concepts:

  • Mount Milligan: Cornerstone asset – a long-life copper-gold mine in British Columbia, Canada, undergoing expansion.
  • Chem: Past-producing copper-gold mine in British Columbia, undergoing feasibility studies for redevelopment.
  • Goldfield: Oxide heap leach gold project in Nevada, USA, under development with anticipated production in late 2028.
  • Thompson Creek/Langaloth: Malibdenum business unit – reopening of Thompson Creek mine in Idaho and processing at Langaloth roster in Pittsburgh.
  • Oxuit: Operating gold mine in Turkey, with potential for life extension.
  • PFS (Pre-Feasibility Study): A detailed engineering and economic study to assess the viability of a mining project.
  • PEA (Preliminary Economic Assessment): An initial, high-level economic assessment of a mining project.
  • NPV (Net Present Value): A metric used to evaluate the profitability of an investment.
  • IRR (Internal Rate of Return): A metric used to evaluate the profitability of an investment.
  • Enterprise Value: A measure of a company’s total value, calculated as market capitalization plus debt minus cash.

I. Company Overview & Asset Portfolio (Paul)

Centa Gold primarily operates in North America, with an additional operating mine in Turkey. The company’s core assets are focused on gold and copper production.

  • Mount Milligan (British Columbia, Canada): A long-life copper-gold asset currently in production. A recent PFS has extended the mine life to at least 2045, with potential for further extension through ongoing exploration. The tailings dam is being designed with capacity until 2070, indicating confidence in long-term operations. Throughput capacity is being increased by 10% in the near term.
  • Oxuit (Turkey): An oxide gold heap leach mine with significant cash flow potential. A project is underway to evaluate production life extension, potentially adding 2-4 years to the current 2029 mine life through residual leaching and exploration for additional oxide and sulfide deposits. Over $600 million in free cash flow has been generated from this mine in the last three years.
  • Chem (British Columbia, Canada): A past-producing copper-gold mine with a large remaining resource. A PEA has been completed, targeting a 15-year mine life at a similar scale to Mount Milligan (150-170,000 oz gold/year and 50-70 million lbs copper/year). The project involves refurbishing existing infrastructure and developing a new mining area. Approximately 45-46% of the total resource (250 million tons indicated, 300 million tons inferred) will be included in the mine plan. Capital investment is estimated at $800 million, split between infrastructure upgrades and new mining area development.
  • Goldfield (Nevada, USA): A fully permitted gold oxide heap leach project, currently under development with first production targeted for late 2028.
  • Thompson Creek/Langaloth (Idaho/Pennsylvania, USA): A malibdenum business unit focused on reopening the Thompson Creek mine and utilizing the Langaloth metallurgical roster. The project is approximately 18 months from first production, with plans to supplement direct feed from Thompson Creek with third-party feeds to maximize roster capacity.

II. Chem Asset Deep Dive (Paul)

The Chem asset is considered a relatively low-risk project due to existing infrastructure, including a 300km power line (estimated replacement cost exceeding $1 billion) and tailings facilities. Many permits from previous operations are already in place, and agreements with local First Nations are being amended. The project benefits from a significant reduction in upfront capital costs compared to building a new mine from scratch (estimated cost of building from the ground up exceeding $4 billion). The next step is advancing to a PFS, with results expected in the first half of 2027.

III. Goldfield Project & Medium-Term Gold Growth (Ryan)

The Goldfield project is strategically important for increasing Centa’s gold exposure. The recent technical study showed attractive economics, with an NPV of $250 million and an IRR of 30% at a gold price of $2,500/oz. At current spot prices, the project is valued at $800 million with a 70% IRR. The $252 million capital project is relatively simple (oxide heap leach) and is expected to be in production by late 2028. This timing complements the potential extension of Oxuit’s mine life and bridges the gap until Chem comes online. The company anticipates a combined gold production profile of 500,000 ounces per year within the next 5-6 years, driven by Mount Milligan, Goldfield, and Chem.

IV. Malibdenum Business Unit & US Market Dynamics (Paul & Ryan)

The malibdenum business unit, centered around Thompson Creek and Langaloth, is focused on the US market. The reopening of Thompson Creek (approximately $400 million capital project, 30% complete) is expected to yield first production in mid-2027. The vertically integrated business model (mining, processing, and sales to US steelmakers) is expected to generate significant cash flow (over $100 million annually). The current US administration’s policies supporting domestic manufacturing and the steel industry create a favorable environment for this business. The company has made strategic equity investments in junior companies with promising malibdenum projects to potentially expand its portfolio.

V. Capital Allocation & Valuation (Ryan)

Centa Gold boasts a strong balance sheet with over $500 million in cash and no debt. The capital allocation strategy prioritizes funding internal growth projects (Chem, Goldfield, Thompson Creek, Mount Milligan expansion) and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. The company believes its current valuation (approximately 0.5x NAV) is deeply discounted compared to its peers. Mount Milligan alone accounts for the current enterprise value, with significant additional value embedded in the other assets. The company’s ability to fund its projects internally without dilution further strengthens its investment proposition.

VI. News Flow & Future Outlook (Paul)

Investors can expect the following news flow in the coming months:

  • Year-end financial results.
  • Progress updates on Thompson Creek and Goldfield development.
  • Release of the PFS for Chem in early 2027.
  • Results of the life-of-mine optimization study for Oxuit in late 2026.
  • Continued updates on quarterly releases.

Conclusion:

Centa Gold presents a compelling investment opportunity with a diversified portfolio of gold and copper assets, a strong balance sheet, and a clear growth strategy. The company’s focus on North American assets, coupled with its ability to self-fund its development pipeline, positions it for significant value creation in the coming years. The undervaluation of the stock, combined with the potential for increased gold and copper production, suggests substantial upside potential for investors.

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