CBOE Volatility Index® #VIX @petenajarian @jonnajarian #ITSNOTANOPTION 📙 April 20th 2026

Key Concepts

• VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): Often referred to as the "fear gauge," it measures the market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options.
• Market Correlation: The observed relationship between crude oil price fluctuations and volatility index movements.
• Mean Reversion: The tendency of the VIX to return to average levels after extreme spikes or drops.

Analysis of VIX and Market Volatility

Current VIX Performance and Market Context

The VIX has experienced a notable upward movement, rising approximately 8% to 12% during the session. At the time of the discussion, the index was hovering just below the 20 threshold, specifically cited in the range of 19.80. This increase is directly attributed to the recent surge in crude oil prices, highlighting a strong correlation between energy market instability and broader market fear.

Recent Volatility Trends

The speakers emphasize that the current level of the VIX is not inherently alarming. This perspective is supported by the rapid decline in volatility observed over the preceding two weeks, where the VIX dropped significantly from a high of 31 down to 17. Given this sharp contraction, a "bump to the upside" is viewed as a natural market correction rather than a sign of systemic distress.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Correlation with Crude Oil: The speakers note that the VIX and crude oil prices have been moving in tandem recently. The rise in oil prices acts as a catalyst for increased market uncertainty, which is immediately reflected in the VIX.
• Sustainability of the 20 Threshold: There is a specific focus on the 20 level as a psychological and technical barrier. While the VIX is currently "sniffing around" 20, the speakers suggest that whether the index sustains a position above 20 remains to be seen. They anticipate that the market will provide clarity on this sustainability in the near term.

Notable Statements

• "We went down from 31 all the way down to 17... so here we are at 19. Sure, there's going to be a little bit of bump to the upside." — This statement underscores the speaker's view that the current volatility is a minor adjustment following a period of rapid cooling.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The primary takeaway is that the current rise in the VIX to approximately 19.80 is a logical reaction to external pressures, specifically the volatility in crude oil prices. Because the market recently experienced a dramatic cooling period (dropping from 31 to 17), the current uptick is interpreted as a standard fluctuation rather than a precursor to a major market event. The critical indicator to watch moving forward is whether the VIX can decisively break and hold above the 20 level, which would signal a more sustained shift in market sentiment.