CBOE Volatility Index® #VIX @petenajarian @jonnajarian #ITSNOTANOPTION 📙 April 16th 2026

Key Concepts

• VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): Often referred to as the "fear gauge," it measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility based on S&P 500 index options.
• Market Volatility: The rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns.
• Threshold Levels: Specific numerical benchmarks (e.g., 20) used by traders to determine market sentiment shifts from "calm" to "stressed."

Analysis of Current VIX Trends

The discussion centers on the current state of the VIX, which is currently trading below the 20-point threshold. Pete notes that the index recently dipped to 17.99 and has been hovering in the 18.00–18.60 range. While there was a minor "blip" toward 19, the speakers maintain that this does not represent a significant shift in market sentiment.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• The "20" Benchmark: The speakers argue that the VIX does not signal genuine market concern until it consistently approaches or exceeds 20. Even if the index crosses 20, the critical factor is whether it remains "sustained" above that level.
• Correlation with Market Movement: There is a strong correlation between the current low VIX readings and the actual performance of major indices. On the day of the discussion, the NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 were experiencing minimal movement (less than 0.5%, with some indices moving as little as 0.25%).
• Accuracy of the Index: Pete asserts that the VIX is currently providing an "accurate" reflection of the market environment. Because the underlying indices are experiencing low-volatility trading days, the VIX’s position well under 20 is viewed as a logical and expected outcome.

Notable Statements

• "It's not a big deal until you get really towards 20 again. And maybe even if you get over 20, are we sustained again over 20?" — Pete
• "That volatility index I think is very, very accurate in showing where we are and it makes a lot of sense that we're well under 20 right now." — Pete

Synthesis and Conclusion

The primary takeaway is that the current market environment is characterized by stability and low volatility. The VIX, currently trading in the high 17s to low 18s, is functioning as a reliable indicator of the lack of significant price swings in the broader equity markets. The speakers emphasize that until the VIX shows a sustained move above the 20-point level, there is no immediate cause for alarm or expectation of heightened market turbulence. The current data—specifically the sub-0.5% daily movement in major indices—perfectly aligns with the VIX's current positioning.