Cartel violence: Is Mexico's security situation any different than usual? | DW News

Key Concepts

• El Meno: The recently arrested and killed leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).
• CJNG (Jalisco New Generation Cartel): A powerful Mexican drug cartel known for its violence and geographic reach.
• FIFA World Cup 2026: The upcoming international football tournament with matches scheduled in Mexico.
• National Guard Deployment: The Mexican government’s response involving the deployment of 10,000 troops to address cartel violence.
• Propaganda-like Response: The CJNG’s widespread, coordinated acts of violence following El Meno’s death, intended to demonstrate their power and reach.
• Narco-State: A state where drug cartels have significant political, economic, and social influence.
• GDP Impact of Tourism: The significant contribution of tourism to Mexico’s economy (8-9% or $30 billion).

The Aftermath of El Meno’s Arrest and the Impact on Mexico

The recent arrest and killing of El Meno, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has triggered a wave of violence across multiple Mexican states, raising concerns about security, particularly in the lead-up to the FIFA World Cup in June. The situation is causing anxiety among locals and tourists alike, with reports of businesses closing and people fearing for their safety. Maria Dolores Agiraa, a shop owner in Tapalpa, Haliscoco, expressed worry that the violence will deter tourists, stating, “I think it will have an impact because everyone just saw what happened and of course people are going to think twice about coming.”

Security Concerns and Tourist Impact

While the initial reaction involved widespread fear and disruption, some experts believe the situation could ultimately improve security for the World Cup. The argument is that removing El Meno is a positive step, demonstrating the Mexican authorities’ capability. However, this hinges on the security forces successfully controlling the CJNG and ending the ongoing violence. Since the beginning of the week, over 70 people have been killed.

Travelers are experiencing heightened security measures, with tighter controls at Puerto Vallarta International Airport. However, reports from transfer passengers at Guadalajara Airport describe chaotic scenes, with passengers fleeing in fear due to rumors of a potential shooting. The economic impact is already being felt, with businesses shuttered and a decline in tourism. Puerto Vallarta, a major tourist city, relies on tourism for approximately 80% of its economy. The timing is particularly concerning, as Mexico is entering a busy tourism season with Spring Break approaching, leading to flight cancellations and refund requests.

Cartel Response and Geographic Reach

Journalist Katie Silva explained that the CJNG’s response to El Meno’s death was a deliberate display of power, characterized by a “propaganda-like” nature. The cartel orchestrated attacks, including vehicle burnings, across nearly a dozen states, showcasing their extensive geographic reach. Furthermore, the CJNG utilized AI-generated videos on social media, representing a new form of warfare. Silva noted, “What the Haliscoco cartel really did here was show their geographic reach… and I think that is probably scary to some.”

The Intractability of the Cartel Problem

The struggle against cartel violence in Mexico is decades-long, and Silva highlighted the complex reasons for its persistence. The CJNG, for example, is estimated to be worth billions of dollars and possesses sophisticated weaponry, including grenades, rocket launchers, and drones – effectively operating as an “army.” Corruption within the security forces and the political system further complicates the issue.

Silva explained that the cartels often don’t significantly impact the daily lives of most Mexicans until a major event like the removal of a leader, which then triggers widespread fear and disruption. She emphasized the high political and human cost associated with dismantling the cartels, contributing to the problem’s intractability. “Sometimes the cartels have more money than the government themselves,” she stated.

Government Response and International Pressure

The arrest of El Meno was partly driven by pressure from the United States, which seeks to stem the flow of drugs into the country. President Trump has publicly called on Mexico to do more to combat the cartels. The domestic political implications for Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum are uncertain, with polls previously suggesting public dissatisfaction with her handling of organized crime. The deployment of 10,000 National Guard troops is a key component of the government’s response.

Advice for Potential Tourists

Regarding the FIFA World Cup, Katie Silva advised caution. While Mexico City appears relatively safe, areas like Haliscoco have experienced more significant unrest. She noted that the US and Canadian authorities have issued warnings about non-essential travel to certain regions. The fate of the four World Cup matches scheduled in Haliscoco remains uncertain, with potential relocation to Monterrey and Mexico City being considered. FIFA President Gianni Infantino has expressed optimism about the safety of the tournament, but Silva emphasized the need to “wait and see how the next couple of months go.”

Conclusion

The arrest of El Meno has unleashed a period of intense violence in Mexico, creating a complex security landscape ahead of the FIFA World Cup. While some believe the removal of the cartel leader could ultimately enhance security, the CJNG’s demonstrated power and reach, coupled with the deeply entrenched nature of the cartel problem, present significant challenges. The situation requires a sustained and comprehensive response from the Mexican government, addressing not only security concerns but also the underlying economic and political factors that fuel cartel activity. The impact on tourism and the daily lives of millions of Mexicans remains a critical concern.