Canada Nickel: Insight on the Development Milestones in 2026 and Nickel Supply Bottleneck

Canada Nickel: 2026 Outlook & Project Updates - Interview with Mark Selby

Key Concepts:

• Crawford Nickel Project: Canada Nickel’s flagship project, aiming for accelerated permitting and development.
• Timmins Nickel District: A broader region encompassing eight identified nickel deposits, with potential for further discoveries.
• Nickel Sulfide Resource: The type of nickel deposit Canada Nickel is focused on, currently holding the world’s largest reserve.
• Major Projects Office (MPO): A Canadian government initiative providing financing and permitting support for critical mineral projects.
• NSR (Net Smelter Return) Royalty: A payment based on the revenue generated from a mine, often held by investors.
• Laterite Deposits: A type of nickel ore deposit, common in Indonesia, experiencing declining ore grades.
• One Project, One Process Initiative: Ontario province’s streamlined permitting process for priority projects.

1. Resource Overview & Exploration Potential

Canada Nickel currently holds published resources for eight nickel deposits within the Timmins Nickel District. Combined, these resources total approximately 23 million tons of contained nickel, representing roughly 10 billion tons of ore at just over 2% nickel. This makes it the world’s largest nickel sulfide resource, surpassing the Sudbury endowment of 19 million tons (though acknowledging a lower recovery rate compared to Sudbury). The company believes Crawford will be its first project, but anticipates identifying three to four additional projects of equal or greater value. A 98% hit rate in exploration to date, with ten successful tests and another six deposits yet to be tested, supports this belief. A key to this success is a proven geophysical template used for identifying these deposits. A ninth resource estimate is expected in the coming weeks or months.

2. Government Support & Accelerated Permitting

The Crawford Nickel Project has received both federal and provincial endorsements for accelerated permitting. In November 2025, it was officially referred to the Canadian government’s Major Projects Office (MPO). In January 2026, the Province of Ontario designated Crawford as the second project to be advanced under its “One Project, One Process” initiative.

The federal support through the MPO includes streamlining access to various critical minerals funding envelopes and facilitating engagement with sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and South Asia. The provincial initiative assigns a single point of contact to manage the multiple permits required from different departments, accelerating the permitting process. Federal permitting is targeted for completion by mid-year 2026. Ministers Tim Hodgson (Federal Natural Resources) and Steven Lecce (Ontario Mines & Energy) and George Perry (Ontario Northern Economic Development) publicly endorsed the project at press conferences.

3. Economic Impact Assessment

A study conducted in 2025 estimates the Crawford Nickel Project will contribute over $70 billion to Canadian GDP, primarily in Ontario. The project is projected to create 1,000 direct jobs and 3,000 indirect jobs. The potential for downstream processing within Canada could further increase economic value. Considering the potential for replicating Crawford three or four times within the Timmins district, the project is considered a “nation-building” initiative.

4. Financial Strategy & Investor Relations

Canada Nickel has established an exploration company and a royalty company holding NSRs for various projects, with potential for future public listing to create value for shareholders. The timing of these listings will depend on market conditions. A significant investment from Samsung SDI is pending a construction decision expected towards the end of 2026, with positive progress reported in ongoing discussions. A $20 million investment from a First Nations group in 2025 demonstrates strong local support.

5. Nickel Market Dynamics & Price Outlook

The recent increase in nickel prices is attributed to Indonesia’s shift towards managing nickel supply. Indonesia controls over two-thirds of global nickel supply, effectively acting as an “OPEC of one country.” Announcements from Indonesia signaling supply management led to a price increase of over $4,000 per ton. Current prices are less than 15% below the levels used in Canada Nickel’s feasibility study, with expectations of reaching $20,000-$22,000 per ton as Indonesian supply management is confirmed through data and price trends in related markets (stainless steel, nickel pig iron, ore). Declining ore grades in Indonesian laterite deposits further support the need for new nickel sources.

Quote: “The people viewed Indonesia as this unlimited amount of of of nickel, but the reality was they were already importing substantial amounts of ore from the Philippines to fill up the plants that had already been built.” – Mark Selby

6. 2026 Milestones & Catalysts

Key milestones expected in 2026 include:

• Financing Package Visibility: Details of the funding package expected by mid-year.
• Construction Start: Targeting the start of construction by the end of 2026.
• Federal Permitting: Receipt of the main federal permit by mid-year.
• Project Development Milestones: Progress on various aspects of project development throughout the year.

Technical Terms:

• Indicated Resource: A resource with sufficient geological confidence to support mine planning.
• Inferred Resource: A resource with lower geological confidence, requiring further exploration.
• NSR (Net Smelter Return): A royalty payment based on the revenue generated from a mine.
• Laterite Deposits: Nickel-bearing soil formations, common in tropical regions.
• Nickel Sulfide: A form of nickel ore often associated with higher-grade deposits.

7. Logical Connections & Overall Synthesis

The interview highlights a clear progression: from significant resource potential and government support to a strategic financial plan and a favorable market outlook. The accelerated permitting process, coupled with the growing demand for nickel outside of Indonesia, positions Canada Nickel for successful development of the Crawford project and exploration of the broader Timmins Nickel District. The company’s diversified approach, including the creation of separate exploration and royalty companies, aims to maximize shareholder value. The overall takeaway is that Canada Nickel is well-positioned to become a significant player in the global nickel market, providing a secure and ethically sourced supply of this critical mineral.