Can US allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz without military force, or US help? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately 25% of the world's seaborne oil passes.
• Sea Power: The comprehensive ability to utilize the sea for national benefit (moving goods, people, and weapons) and deny its use to adversaries.
• Naval Power: The military component of sea power, involving warships and maritime security operations.
• Compellance: A military strategy involving the use of force to compel an adversary to take a specific action (e.g., reopening the strait).
• Coercion: An indirect strategy of threatening assets an adversary values (e.g., Iranian oil exports) to alter their decision-making.
• Merchant Marine: A nation’s fleet of commercial ships, which is essential for exercising full sea power.

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1. Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is vital not only for global energy security but also for the transport of fertilizers necessary for global agriculture. Samuel Hellfont emphasizes that allowing a single state to close an international waterway sets a dangerous global precedent. The closure has triggered rising energy prices and global inflation.

2. The Role of International Coalitions

Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to reopen the strait, the British Foreign Minister convened a meeting of 40 nations.

• Key Argument: The crisis is a global issue, not just a U.S. responsibility.
• Capability Gap: European nations possess specialized capabilities, such as mine-clearing, that complement U.S. military assets.
• Diplomatic Pressure: There is a consensus that a combination of diplomatic, economic, and long-term military planning is required to ensure shipping safety.

3. Military vs. Economic Realities

• Risk Mitigation: While the U.S. military can reduce risks for commercial shipping, it cannot eliminate them entirely. International shipping companies must weigh the high value of their cargo (up to $200 million per tanker) against the persistent threat posed by Iran’s geography (rocky coastlines, caves, and inland drone capabilities).
• The "Sea Power" Deficit: Hellfont argues that the U.S. lacks sufficient national-flagged merchant ships to compel trade through contested waters. Because the U.S. relies on multinational shipping companies, it cannot force them to sail through the strait; it can only offer security escorts.

4. Military Methodologies for Reopening the Strait

Hellfont outlines two primary military approaches:

1. Direct Force (Compellance): A campaign involving airstrikes to neutralize missile/mine threats, amphibious operations to seize strategic islands, and the use of destroyers to escort merchant vessels.
2. Indirect Pressure (Coercion): Targeting Iran’s own oil infrastructure (e.g., Kharg Island) to force a change in Iranian behavior, effectively making the export of their own oil contingent upon allowing international shipping to pass.

5. Geopolitical Perspectives

• China’s Stance: While China publicly calls for de-escalation, it benefits from the status quo by purchasing discounted Iranian oil and observing U.S. military operations in real-time. Furthermore, the conflict ties up U.S. naval assets that would otherwise be stationed in the Pacific, a strategic advantage for Beijing.
• Short-term "Band-aids": Some Asian nations are cutting individual deals with Iran to ensure safe passage. Hellfont notes this is a temporary fix that does not address the long-term danger of the precedent being set.

6. Notable Quotes

• Donald Trump: "The countries of the world that do receive oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage... They can do it easily. We will be helpful, but they should take the lead."
• UN Chief António Guterres: "Conflicts do not end on their own. They end when leaders choose dialogue over destruction."

7. Synthesis and Conclusion

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz represents a complex intersection of military strategy, global economics, and diplomatic maneuvering. There is no clear "endgame" currently visible. The U.S. faces a dilemma: it must neutralize the threat to global trade to prevent a disastrous precedent, but it must do so without triggering a broader conflict or suffering significant loss of life. A sustainable resolution requires finding an Iranian counterpart capable of controlling their military and a political environment in the U.S. willing to engage in the necessary diplomacy to end the hostilities.