Can Ukraine survive without US weapons? | BBC Ukrainecast

Key Concepts

• US weapons shipments to Ukraine
• Patriot missile systems
• Republican isolationism
• Stockpile review
• Political pressure on Ukraine
• Domestic weapon production in Ukraine
• Shadow fleet
• Sanctions against Russia
• Russian opposition
• Occupied territories
• Belarus's role in the conflict

US Weapons Shipments to Ukraine

• Suspension of Delivery: The US is suspending the delivery of weapons previously earmarked for Ukraine, causing concern in Ukraine.
• Specific Weapons: While Washington isn't officially specifying, reports suggest the withheld weapons include Patriot missiles, Stinger missiles, multiple launch rockets, and grenade launchers.
• Importance of Patriot Missiles: Patriot missiles are crucial for intercepting ballistic missiles, which cause significant damage and loss of life in Ukraine.
• Timing: This suspension comes at a bad time for Ukraine, as Russian aerial attacks are intensifying.
• Official Reason: The White House claims they are running short of supplies and the Department of Defense has been conducting a review of its stockpiles of weapons.
• Political Pressure: There's an assumption that the US is putting political pressure on Ukraine to come to the table with Russia.

Alternatives and Domestic Weapon Production

• Manufacturing in Ukraine: Ukraine's allies are not stopping Ukraine from manufacturing weaponry and ammunition for itself.
• UK-Ukraine Agreement: An agreement exists between the UK and Ukraine to jointly produce drones for Ukraine in the UK, specifically Raybird drones.
• German Support: Germany is planning to fund the production of Ukrainian long-range missiles in Ukraine.
• Advantages of Western Production: Western production offers advantages as factories and infrastructure are less vulnerable to Russian attacks.
• Drone Warfare: Home-produced drones are extensively used by Ukraine, accounting for an estimated 70% of Russian losses on the front line.
• Air Defense Needs: Ukrainian experts suggest needing two Patriot systems per major city, but Ukraine had only eight in total, with six operational, as of May.
• Combined Strikes: Russia is launching combined strikes involving ballistic missiles and drones to overwhelm air defenses, with record stats at about 500 drones per night.

Russia's Shadow Fleet

• Sanctions in Effect: Sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet have been instigated and appear to be working.
• Fleet Size and Oil Transport: The shadow fleet consists of over 300 tankers, previously transporting 70 million barrels of crude per month, now down to less than 20 million.
• Fleet Characteristics: The tankers are old, rusty, and decrepit, with obscured ownership and changing identities to avoid sanctions.
• Sanctions Avoidance: The fleet aims to circumvent Western sanctions on Russian oil, such as the $60 price cap per barrel and import bans.
• BBC Investigation: BBC Verify is investigating an incident involving a shadow fleet vessel that exploded off the coast of Libya.
• Russian Protection: Russia is protecting these tankers, with escorts by Russian corvettes and fighter jets.

Diplomacy and European Initiatives

• European Awareness: Europeans realize they must think differently and seize opportunities in the era of Trump.
• Macron-Putin Call: President Macron had a conversation with President Putin, the first in several years, to keep open negotiation.
• European Involvement: Europeans will have to be involved in any kind of negotiated settlement to the conflict.
• US-French Relations: Tensions between Macron and Trump do not significantly affect the issue of Ukraine.

Russian Opposition

• Ukrainian Distrust: Ukrainians distrust the Russian opposition due to their framing of the invasion as "Putin's war," exonerating the Russian population.
• Crimea Stance: Some Russian opposition figures, including the late Alexi Navalny, have supported the annexation of Crimea, which Ukrainians cannot forgive.
• Lack of Explicit Support for Ukrainian Victory: Russian opposition figures often advocate for peace without explicitly calling for Russia's defeat and the return of occupied territories.
• Weakened Position: The Russian opposition is in its weakest position, especially after Navalny's death.
• Limited Western Investment: Western governments do not invest much time and effort in the Russian opposition due to its limited strength.

Life in Occupied Territories

• Territorial Control: Russia occupies roughly a fifth of Ukraine, with reports of expansion into the northern Sumy region.
• Information Scarcity: It's difficult to find out what life is like in these places, relying on eyewitness accounts.
• Double Life: Ukrainians in occupied territories must publicly embrace a Russian identity while preserving their Ukrainian identity.
• Property Seizures: Occupied authorities are seizing property from Ukrainians who have left.
• Eradication of Ukrainian Identity: Anything Ukrainian is being stamped out, including language, culture, and textbooks.
• Forced Passportization: Ukrainians are being forced to take Russian passports to access healthcare, education, and benefits.
• Deadline to Leave: Ukrainians without Russian passports have been given a deadline to leave by September.

Belarus's Role

• Unique Role: Belarus has a unique role in the conflict.
• US Engagement: The US is engaging with Belarus, possibly to release political prisoners and peel Belarus away from Russia.
• Limited Impact: This engagement is unlikely to lead to a significant change in peace negotiations.
• Lukashenko's Dependence: Lukashenko is economically and militarily dependent on Moscow.
• Authoritarianism: It's hard to know what people think in Belarus due to its authoritarian nature.

Conclusion

The situation surrounding Ukraine is complex and multifaceted. The suspension of US weapons shipments, while potentially driven by stockpile issues, raises concerns about political pressure on Ukraine. Efforts to support domestic weapon production offer a potential solution, but air defense remains a critical need. Sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet are showing some success, but Russia is actively working to circumvent them. The Russian opposition faces challenges in gaining support and lacks a clear stance on Ukraine's territorial integrity. Life in occupied territories is marked by repression and the eradication of Ukrainian identity. Belarus's role remains complex, with limited prospects for a significant shift in its alignment with Russia.