Can Ukraine avoid making concessions to end the war? | DW News

Key Concepts

• US-Ukraine Negotiations: Discussions between Ukrainian and US representatives regarding a plan to end the war with Russia.
• Moscow Meeting: A prior meeting in Moscow involving Vladimir Putin, US Envoy Steve Witoff, and Jared Kushner.
• Kremlin's Perception: Described the Moscow meeting as "useful and constructive."
• Putin's Remarks: Described the US meeting as "constructive, necessary, and difficult work," but expressed concerns about NATO enlargement and broken promises.
• Macron's Diplomacy: French President Emmanuel Macron urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to use his influence to end the war.
• European Influence: Questioned the extent of European leaders' influence on the conflict, particularly with China.
• Putin's Strategy: Accused of aiming to portray Ukraine as unreliable, push the US to give up on a quick deal, and divide Europe.
• Escalation of Attacks: Despite diplomatic talks, Putin has increased attacks on Ukraine.
• Europe's Role: Germany, France, and the UK are seen as needing to take the lead, as Putin is perceived to be at war with Europe, not just Ukraine.
• New Generation of Warfare: Refers to potential Russian sabotage activities across Europe.
• NATO Article 5: The risk of Putin challenging NATO's collective defense clause.
• Trust in Putin: Doubts about Putin's willingness to negotiate in good faith due to a history of violating agreements.
• Western Analysis vs. Kremlin Psychology: The need to understand Putin's mindset, characterized by deception, rather than relying on traditional Western analysis.
• Economic Projections: Projections suggest the Russian economy will struggle to sustain itself by 2026.

US-Ukraine Negotiations in Florida

Ukrainian and US negotiators are meeting in Florida to discuss a plan to end the war with Russia. This meeting follows a prior discussion in Moscow between Vladimir Putin, US Envoy Steve Witoff, and Jared Kushner. While no significant progress was reported from the Moscow meeting, the Kremlin characterized it as "useful and constructive."

The current meeting in Florida is expected to be primarily an information-sharing session. The US team will brief the Ukrainian team on their perception of the outcomes from the Moscow discussions. This briefing will likely clarify areas of potential flexibility with the Russian side and identify "red lines" that Russia will not compromise on.

Putin's Perspective and Remarks

Vladimir Putin, currently in India, described his meeting with the US delegation as "constructive, necessary, and difficult work." In a TV interview, he appeared relaxed and confident, demonstrating a command of various topics. However, his demeanor shifted to a more serious tone when discussing NATO enlargement and what he perceives as broken promises made to Russia in the 1990s regarding NATO expansion. This suggests that NATO's eastward expansion remains a significant point of contention for Russia.

International Diplomatic Efforts

French President Emmanuel Macron, during his visit to China, urged President Xi Jinping to leverage his influence to help end the war. However, the effectiveness of European leaders' calls on this conflict is questioned, especially in relation to China. While China needs the European market, Europe is more dependent on China for manufactured goods, creating a power imbalance that favors China. Macron's determined diplomatic efforts are acknowledged, but it is uncertain whether Beijing will give them significant weight.

Analysis of Putin's Strategy and Motivations

Ivana Stratner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggests that Putin rejected a deal in Moscow to place Ukraine in a difficult position. His aim is to present maximalist demands, leading to Ukraine's rejection, which would then allow Washington to portray Ukraine as an unreliable partner. The ultimate goal, according to this perspective, is to encourage the United States to disengage from seeking a quick deal, thereby shifting the burden to Europe.

Stratner expresses concern that the US might push Ukraine for territorial concessions. She points to Putin's continued threats regarding Donbas and drone attacks on Ukraine as indicators of his true intentions, suggesting that he is not interested in a peaceful resolution that involves concessions. Furthermore, Putin is seen as actively trying to divide Europe on this issue and undermine the unity of alliances.

European Leaders' Concerns and Actions

Putin has accused Europe of sabotaging US-led efforts with unrealistic demands and portraying them as warmongers. However, Stratner argues that despite Putin's positive remarks about the US meeting, his actions contradict his words. The increase in attacks on Ukraine in the 24 hours following the Moscow meeting indicates his dissatisfaction with the idea of the conflict returning to Europe.

Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are recognized as needing to take the lead in resolving the conflict, as Putin is perceived to be at war with Europe, not just Ukraine. This perspective is based on the understanding of a "new generation of warfare," which includes Russian sabotage activities across Europe, such as cutting sea cables and drone incursions. Europe understands that the war will not be confined to Ukraine and that NATO's Article 5 is at risk. There is a belief that Putin, understanding he has time and will, will challenge Article 5 and Europe's response. This is why Germany, France, and the UK are seen as needing to stop Putin now.

Trust and Future of Negotiations

There are significant doubts about Putin's trustworthiness and his willingness to end the war. Russia's history of violating agreements, including events from 30 years ago and 2014, leads to the conclusion that believing Putin negotiates in good faith is unrealistic. Deception is considered a core element of the Kremlin's strategic efforts.

The argument is made that Europe and the United States should not fear escalation, as they are significantly stronger than Russia. Projections indicate that the Russian economy will struggle to sustain itself by 2026. Putin is seen as buying time, and Western analysis needs to shift to understanding Putin's mindset, which is characterized by deception. The West should not allow this strategy to succeed, as Putin's primary assets are time and will.

Conclusion

The current diplomatic efforts surrounding the Ukraine war are complex, with differing perspectives on the motivations and strategies of the involved parties. While negotiations are ongoing, there is a prevailing sentiment that Putin's actions do not align with his words, and his ultimate goals may involve dividing Western alliances and prolonging the conflict. The focus is shifting towards Europe taking a more assertive role, driven by the understanding that the conflict poses a broader threat to European security. The lack of trust in Putin's commitments and the perceived strategic deception from the Kremlin necessitate a re-evaluation of Western approaches to diplomacy and conflict resolution.