Can Turkey's Erdogan get away with arresting his key political rival? | Berlin Briefing Podcast

Key Concepts

• President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's crackdown on political opposition
• Ekrem İmamoğlu's arrest and its implications
• Turkey's role in European defense and migration
• EU's response to human rights breaches in Turkey
• Coalition of the willing and Turkey's involvement
• Germany's relationship with Turkey and its Turkish diaspora
• Autocracy vs. Rule of Law
• EU-Turkey relations and potential actions

Erdoğan's Crackdown and İmamoğlu's Arrest

• On March 19th, President Erdoğan had Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul and a promising political challenger, arrested.
• İmamoğlu was elected as the presidential candidate of the opposition CHP party for the 2028 election while in prison.
• Tens of thousands of people protested, leading to approximately 1,400 arrests, including journalists.
• Çan Maraş argues that Erdoğan felt threatened by İmamoğlu's popularity, as polls suggested İmamoğlu could win an election against Erdoğan.
• According to the Turkish constitution, Erdoğan's second term would end in 2028, but his party built in a loophole allowing him to run for a third term if parliament dissolves before then.

EU's Response and Lack of Pressure

• Ursula von der Leyen, President of the EU Commission, expressed deep concern over İmamoğlu's arrest, emphasizing Turkey's obligation to uphold democratic values as a Council of Europe member and EU candidate country.
• Mark Pierini notes that most of Europe, except for the German Foreign Minister, remains "on mute" due to the "coalition of the willing" involving Turkey in European defense.
• Erdoğan leverages Turkey's dynamic defense industry, capable of rapidly producing artillery shells, infantry vehicles, and drones, to gain influence and avoid criticism on rule of law.

Turkey's Role in the "Coalition of the Willing"

• Turkey has the second-largest conventional army within NATO (fourth if nuclear forces are considered).
• Pierini raises moral and strategic concerns about relying on Turkey, given its strong economic and defense relationship with Russia.
• 50% of Turkey's gas comes from Russia, and millions of Russian tourists visit Turkey annually.
• Russia has the power to retaliate against Turkey economically if displeased, as demonstrated in the past.
• Turkey's unique position allows it to play a crucial role in facilitating grain exports from Ukraine.

Germany's Relationship with Turkey

• Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, stated that İmamoğlu's arrest is a "very bad sign" for democracy in Turkey and relations between Europe and Turkey.
• Çan Maraş highlights the special relationship between Turkey and Germany, with a large Turkish diaspora in Germany.
• Many Turks in Germany, even those who are otherwise liberal, support Erdoğan because he "gave them back their pride," addressing feelings of being second-class citizens.
• Germany's failure to fully integrate Turkish guest workers has contributed to this sentiment.
• Angela Merkel's 2015-2016 migration deal with Turkey and Ursula von der Leyen's subsequent promise of additional funds demonstrate Europe's reliance on Turkey as a "gatekeeper" for migration.

Autocracy vs. Rule of Law

• The discussion highlights the tension between supporting a country with autocratic tendencies for strategic reasons and upholding the principles of rule of law.
• Pierini argues that Western Europe's battle against Putin and Trump is fundamentally a battle between brute force and rule of law.
• He notes the weakening political alliance between Western Europe and the United States, with some seeing an alliance between Washington and Moscow.

Alternatives and Opposition

• Çan Maraş notes that the opposition has consistently failed to unseat Erdoğan in past elections, even when opportunities arose.
• He describes the current protests as fueled by "despair" rather than "hope," given the increasingly autocratic and repressive nature of Erdoğan's regime.
• Maraş states that Erdoğan has no obvious successor within his own party and has been the dominant political figure in Turkey for 22 years.
• Mark Pierini argues that Erdoğan is a "champion survivor" who will cling to power.

EU-Turkey Relations and Potential Actions

• Pierini suggests that Europe may need to keep Erdoğan "at arm's length" and avoid giving him a platform to claim he has silenced European criticism of his human rights record.
• Çan Maraş acknowledges the dilemma of easing visa restrictions, as it could be seen as rewarding Erdoğan's autocratic tendencies.
• However, he personally favors easing restrictions to promote travel and cultural exchange.
• Maraş suggests that Europe should explore economic pressure, given Turkey's economic vulnerabilities, including high inflation and investor concerns about autocracy.
• He points to a past instance where a German foreign minister's warning to German companies about investing in Turkey caused an uproar in the Erdoğan government.

Notable Quotes

• Ursula von der Leyen: "The arrest of the mayor is deeply concerning... Turkey must uphold the democratic values especially the rights of elected officials."
• Olaf Scholz: "The arrest of such a key opposition politician and the mayor of Istanbul is a very very bad sign... it is certainly also a bad sign for relations between Europe and Turkey."
• Çan Maraş's father (paraphrased): "Erdoğan gave me back my pride."
• Mark Pierini: "The issue is is really as I said earlier that this is a battle between brute force and rule of law."

Technical Terms and Concepts

• CHP: Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Republican People's Party), the main opposition party in Turkey.
• AK Party (AKP): Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development Party), Erdoğan's ruling party.
• Coalition of the Willing: An alliance of countries, primarily Western European, focused on supporting Ukraine and reinforcing European defense.
• EU Candidate Country: A country that has applied to join the European Union and is undergoing the accession process.
• Council of Europe: An international organization promoting human rights, democracy, and the rule of law in Europe.
• Gazi Protests: Anti-government protests that began in Turkey in 2013.
• Autocracy: A system of government in which one person possesses unlimited power.
• Rule of Law: The principle that all people and institutions are subject to and accountable to law that is fairly applied and enforced.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The video analyzes the complex situation surrounding President Erdoğan's crackdown on political opposition in Turkey, particularly the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu. It explores the EU's muted response, driven by Turkey's strategic importance in European defense and migration management. The discussion highlights the moral and strategic dilemmas of cooperating with an increasingly autocratic regime, especially given Turkey's close ties with Russia. The video also examines Germany's unique relationship with Turkey, shaped by its large Turkish diaspora and historical ties. While verbal condemnation is expected, concrete actions against Erdoğan are deemed difficult due to Europe's dependence on Turkey. The experts suggest exploring economic pressure as a potential tool, given Turkey's economic vulnerabilities. Ultimately, the video paints a picture of a challenging situation with no easy solutions, requiring a delicate balancing act between upholding democratic values and pursuing strategic interests.