Can Trump still capitalize on recent diplomatic gains and achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Budapest Summit: Proposed meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Tomahawk Missiles: Long-range offensive weapons that Ukraine has requested from the US.
• Peace Through Strength: Donald Trump's foreign policy motto, emphasizing military power as a means to achieve peace.
• Gaza Ceasefire Deal: A recent agreement brokered by Trump, which he hopes to leverage for progress in Ukraine.
• International Criminal Court (ICC): An international tribunal prosecuting Vladimir Putin, with Hungary in the process of withdrawing from it.
• Frozen Russian Bank Assets: Assets held by Russian entities in foreign banks, which could potentially be used to fund Ukraine's reconstruction.
• State-on-State Conflict: A conflict between sovereign nations, characterized by deep-rooted grievances.

Trump-Putin Phone Call and Proposed Budapest Summit

US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had made "great progress" during a phone call on Thursday. They reportedly agreed to meet in Budapest, Hungary, although no specific date was provided. Trump stated the purpose of this meeting would be to "end the glorious war between Russia and Ukraine." This announcement came as a surprise to the Ukrainian delegation, who were not informed in advance.

Ukrainian Delegation's Visit to Washington D.C.

The timing of Trump's announcement coincided with a high-level Ukrainian delegation's visit to Washington D.C., including Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, Presidential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had just landed.

Geopolitical Dynamics and Motivations

• Ukraine's Request: Ukrainian officials, including President Zelenskyy in his call with Trump, reportedly requested the lifting of the ban on long-range US weapons strikes inside Russia. They view these strikes as a humanitarian step to prevent civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction caused by Russian attacks.
• Russia's Stance: Despite Trump's claims of progress, the transcript suggests that the Kremlin is not yet ready for a trilateral meeting. Putin has shown no desire to negotiate and has continued his aggression against Ukraine.
• Trump's Strategy: Trump's approach appears to be driven by a desire to achieve peace through strength, leveraging recent successes like the Gaza ceasefire deal. However, his past attempts to resolve the Ukraine conflict have been unsuccessful, leading to frustration.
• Hungary as a Venue: Budapest was chosen as the meeting location due to Hungary's politically convenient and legally safe stance for Russian leaders. Under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Hungary has maintained a pro-Russian and pro-Trump stance, offering diplomatic neutrality and symbolic value. Hungary's ongoing withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC), which is prosecuting Putin, further solidifies its position as a "safe haven."

Potential US Military Aid to Ukraine

A key point of discussion is the potential transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. These missiles, with a 2500 km range and a 500 kg payload, are considered a significant offensive weapon that could put Moscow within striking distance. While Ukraine sees them as crucial for defense, Russia views their potential supply as a "truly serious round of escalation," noting their nuclear capability.

Expert Analysis and Perspectives

Rachel Rizzo from the Atlantic Council offered insights into the complexities of brokering peace in Ukraine:

• Difficulty of the Conflict: Rizzo emphasized that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a "very different kind of conflict" compared to the Gaza situation, being a deep-rooted, state-on-state conflict with historical grievances.
• Putin's Unwillingness to Negotiate: She expressed skepticism that the Gaza ceasefire would pressure Putin, stating that he has shown no desire to negotiate and views anything less than a win as non-negotiable.
• US and European Pressure: Rizzo believes that pressure on Putin will stem from the US's willingness to provide military support to Ukraine and the combined efforts of the US and Europe to exert pressure on Russia.
• Momentum as a Factor: While acknowledging the perceived momentum from the Gaza negotiations, Rizzo cautioned that it might not translate into Putin's willingness to come to the table, as the conflicts are distinct.
• Ukraine's Negotiating Position: Despite the battlefield challenges, Ukraine is entering discussions with Trump from a "better negotiating position" than in February, due to Trump's frustration with Russia's lack of engagement.
• Comprehensive Approach to Peace: Rizzo argued that Tomahawk missiles alone will not end the war. A combination of intense military support, building Ukraine's defense industrial base, reconstruction aid, tightened sanctions, and potentially utilizing frozen Russian assets is necessary to pressure Putin.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

The transcript highlights a complex diplomatic landscape surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. While President Trump claims progress and a potential meeting with Putin in Budapest, the underlying geopolitical realities suggest significant challenges. Ukraine is seeking enhanced military capabilities, particularly long-range strike options, while Russia has shown no inclination to de-escalate. Experts believe that a lasting peace will require a multifaceted approach involving sustained military and economic pressure on Russia, rather than relying on a single diplomatic breakthrough or weapon system. The upcoming meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump in Washington is a critical juncture to observe potential shifts in US policy and its impact on the conflict.