Can the Liberals break through Labor’s fortress in Victoria? | 7.30

Key Concepts:

• Marginal seat: Chisum, a seat held almost equally by Labor and Liberals.
• Electoral redistribution: Changes to Chisum's boundaries affecting the margin.
• Cost of living: A primary concern for voters due to rising mortgages and expenses.
• Mortgage stress: A significant issue in Chisum due to high property values.
• Crime: A concern raised by voters, though primarily a state issue.
• Multicultural electorate: Chisum has a large Chinese community and a high percentage of residents born overseas.
• Target seat: Chisum is a key target for the Liberals to win back in Melbourne.

1. Chisum: A Marginal Seat

• Chisum is a two-way battleground, having been held almost equally by Labor and the Liberals over the past 50 years.
• Karina Garland (Labor) currently holds the seat, having won it back from the Liberals in the last election.
• The Liberals, represented by Dr. Katie Allen, are targeting Chisum as a critical seat to win back in Melbourne.
• Peter Dutton (Liberal leader) has identified Chisum as a critical seat for the coalition's path to government.

2. Demographic and Electoral Changes

• Chisum has a large Chinese community, and Garland emphasizes her work with this community, including her role as chair of the parliamentary friends of China.
• More than half of Chisum's population was born overseas, with a significant proportion born in China. In 2021, one in seven people were born in China.
• Mandarin or Cantonese is the first language for almost 1 in 4 people in Chisum.
• Electoral redistribution has shrunk Labor's margin in Chisum to 3.3%.
• Chisum's electoral boundaries have changed seven times since 1990. The latest redistribution involved losing parts of the electorate to the north and gaining parts of the abolished seat of Higgins, where Katie Allen was previously the federal member.

3. Key Issues: Cost of Living and Housing Affordability

• Katie Allen identifies the cost of living as the most pressing issue for voters.
• Voters express concern about rising mortgage costs, with one homeowner stating they feel like they are "working only for the bank."
• Chisum has a higher median income than the national average, but mortgages are also significantly higher, leading to mortgage stress.
• Voter Dennis Young is worried about his 24-year-old's ability to afford a home, citing rising prices and supply issues.

4. Crime as a Local Concern

• Crime is another issue raised by voters, with one resident reporting their car being broken into.
• Allen acknowledges that crime is primarily a state issue but notes that voters link it to the economy.
• Voters express frustration with reoffenders being out on bail.

5. Voter Perspectives and Party Leadership

• Uni student Maddie Jeffrey Moore, a first-time voter in Chisum, highlights the importance of cost-of-living measures, such as increased rent assistance and energy assistance.
• Jeffrey Moore voted independent in the last election but will not vote Liberal this time due to concerns about the party leader, Peter Dutton.
• Jeffrey Moore draws parallels between Dutton's rhetoric ("Let's get Australia back on track") and the "Make America Great Again" slogan, expressing concern about potential job cuts in the public sector.

6. Campaign Visibility

• Despite the approaching election day, there are few visible signs of campaigning in parts of Chisum.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

Chisum is a marginal seat with a diverse electorate, making it a key battleground for the upcoming election. The cost of living, particularly housing affordability and mortgage stress, is a major concern for voters. While crime is also a concern, it is primarily viewed as a state issue. The Liberal party is targeting Chisum, but voter perceptions of the party leader, Peter Dutton, could be a factor. The campaign's visibility is currently low, suggesting that the candidates have a lot of work to do in the final weeks.