Can the Kurds in Syria achieve autonomy after Assad? | DW Reporter

Key Concepts

• Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): A Kurdish-led military alliance that previously controlled nearly one-third of Syria.
• Afrin: A predominantly Kurdish city near the Turkish border, currently under Turkish influence.
• Integration Agreement: A decree by President Ahmad al-Shara aimed at merging the SDF into the Syrian national army.
• Turkish Influence: The presence of Turkish military bases and the use of the Turkish lira in northern Syrian territories.
• ISIS Resurgence: The risk that instability and poverty could allow the extremist group to regroup.
• Al-Roj Camp: A detention facility for suspected ISIS members and their families, currently under Kurdish administration.

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1. Political Instability and the Integration Crisis

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the rise of President Ahmad al-Shara, the Syrian government has promised national unity. However, the integration of the Kurdish-led SDF into the Syrian army has stalled. Negotiations collapsed, leading to violent clashes in January that pushed Kurdish forces out of key territories. While the government issued a decree promising to protect Kurdish rights, the reality on the ground remains volatile, characterized by a patchwork of checkpoints manned by various factions, including Islamist groups and the Syrian army.

2. The Situation in Afrin: A Case Study in Displacement

Afrin serves as a focal point for the Kurdish struggle. After being displaced by a Turkish-backed offensive in 2018, many Kurds are attempting to return. However, they find their homes destroyed or repurposed as military positions.

• Turkish Presence: Despite government rhetoric regarding the removal of foreign military forces, a Turkish base remains in Afrin.
• Cultural Alienation: Returning residents report feeling like "strangers" in their own city. The local economy has been "Turkified," with the Turkish lira replacing the Syrian pound, and residents face social pressure to conform to new, restrictive norms.
• Human Cost: Habil Mikdat, a returnee, noted that the Turkish presence has not brought development but rather destruction and a loss of identity.

3. The Threat of ISIS Resurgence

Kurdish rights researcher Çinar Silah warns that the current power vacuum and economic desperation create a fertile environment for ISIS to regroup.

• Ideological Danger: Rashid Omar, an official at the Al-Roj detention camp, highlights that the primary threat is not just the physical presence of detainees, but the extremist ideology being passed to the next generation.
• Security Risks: There is a significant fear that during the transition of power—specifically if Kurdish forces are forced to hand over control of detention camps—thousands of detainees could escape, potentially revitalizing the extremist group.

4. Perspectives on the Future

• The Government Perspective: President al-Shara advocates for "effective participation" in building a unified country, though critics argue this lacks the necessary constitutional protections to guarantee minority rights.
• The Kurdish Perspective: Many Kurds, like Mohammed, view the situation as a "ticking time bomb." Despite the destruction of their homes and the uncertainty of the political landscape, there is a persistent desire for dignity and a return to normalcy.
• Key Quote: Çinar Silah stated: "Some believe that joining ISIS could help improve conditions, so ISIS has not been defeated. Actually, this may be its moment. A snake that is struck but not killed becomes even more dangerous and aggressive."

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The post-war landscape in Syria is defined by a precarious tension between the government’s desire for centralized control and the Kurdish population's struggle for autonomy and safety. The integration of the SDF remains the primary obstacle to stability. With the continued presence of Turkish forces in the north and the looming threat of an ISIS resurgence, the Kurdish population faces a difficult choice: return to their homes to face political uncertainty and foreign occupation, or remain displaced in a state of perpetual instability. The future of Syria remains unresolved, with the safety of its largest minority hanging in the balance.