Can the disarmament of Hamas be achieved? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Gaza Ceasefire Deal: An agreement aimed at halting hostilities in Gaza, with a focus on disarming Hamas, rebuilding Gaza, and ensuring Israel's security.
• Hamas: A Palestinian Islamist militant group that currently governs the Gaza Strip.
• Disarmament of Hamas: A key objective of the ceasefire deal, involving the removal of Hamas's weapons and military capabilities.
• Rebuilding Gaza: The process of reconstructing infrastructure and services in Gaza, which has been devastated by conflict.
• Abraham Accords: Peace agreements between Israel and several Arab nations, with the US seeking to expand these.
• International Stabilization Force: A proposed multinational force to maintain security and order in Gaza.
• Public Executions: Acts of violence used by Hamas as a show of force and to deter dissent.
• Security Vacuum: A state of lawlessness and lack of effective governance in Gaza following the war.
• Rival Clans: Factions within Gaza that have clashed with Hamas, some allegedly backed by Israel.
• Governance of Gaza: The question of who will administer Gaza after the conflict, with Hamas seeking guarantees before relinquishing control.
• Ideological Resistance: Hamas's commitment to armed struggle against Israel, rooted in its ideology.
• Multilateral International Force: A stabilization force composed of multiple nations, operating under international coordination.

US Vice President JD Vance's Visit to Israel and Gaza Ceasefire Efforts

US Vice President JD Vance is in Israel to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, focusing on bolstering support for a Gaza ceasefire deal. The stability of this ceasefire has been precarious since recent Israeli airstrikes, which Israel stated were in response to Hamas militant attacks on its troops. Vance, accompanied by his wife, emphasized the critical nature of these days for the peace plan's success, describing them as "days of destiny."

Main Topics and Key Points

• Objective of the Gaza Peace Plan: The primary goals are to disarm Hamas, rebuild Gaza to improve living conditions for its residents, and eliminate the threat Hamas poses to Israel. Vance acknowledged the difficulty of this task.
• US Commitment and Support: The US administration, under President Trump, is committed to this plan. Vance highlighted positive conversations with the Israeli government and Arab nations who are volunteering to play a significant role.
• US Diplomatic Engagement: The presence of Vice President Vance, US Special Envoy Steve Witchoff, Jared Kushner, and the upcoming visit of Secretary of State Marco Rubio signal strong American focus on advancing the deal to its second phase. This high-level engagement is seen by some as "babysitting" Netanyahu, especially given internal Israeli opposition.
• Ceasefire Fragility: The ceasefire has been described as "shaky." Clashes between the IDF and militants occurred on Sunday, with both sides accusing each other of violations. Hamas has been slow in returning deceased Israeli hostages, while the IDF has reportedly fired on Palestinians, some of whom were searching for homes and inadvertently crossed an ill-defined "yellow line."
• US Pressure and Warnings: The US is keen to expand the Abraham Accords and is pushing both sides to adhere to the deal. Hamas has been warned of obliteration if they do not comply, and reports suggest the US has also warned Israel against actions that could jeopardize the deal.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Vance's Optimism: Despite concerns, Vance expressed confidence in the ceasefire's potential, emphasizing the need to look forward and view the peace plan as a crucial "puzzle piece" in broader regional peace efforts.
• Observer Skepticism: Some observers view the US efforts as "babysitting" due to internal Israeli opposition to the ceasefire.
• Hamas's Strategic Use of Ceasefire: Hamas appears to be using the ceasefire to reassert its control in Gaza, as evidenced by public executions and the deployment of security forces.
• Israeli Far-Right Opposition: Far-right ministers like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich oppose the ceasefire, advocating for the resettlement and rebuilding of settlements in Gaza, posing a potential threat to the agreement.

Hamas Reasserting Control in Gaza

Recent developments in Gaza show Hamas reimposing its authority. This includes public executions, which are interpreted as a show of force against rival clans and alleged Israeli collaborators, signaling a zero-tolerance policy for "treason" and "criminality" during a time when Gazans need respite.

Main Topics and Key Points

• Breakdown of Law and Order: Gaza is described as being in a "security vacuum" after the war, with collapsed infrastructure and services.
• Hamas Security Deployment: Approximately 7,000 Hamas security forces have been deployed to patrol the streets, with some residents reporting a return of security and discipline.
• Clashes with Rival Clans: Hamas has engaged in violent clashes with rival clans, some allegedly backed by Israel and blamed for looting aid.
• US Approval for Hamas to Instill Order: President Trump has reportedly given Hamas a "temporary green light" to establish order, acknowledging their efforts to address problems.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Hamas as the "Best Choice for Now": Despite its unpopularity, for many in Gaza, Hamas remains the most viable option for security and governance at present.
• Hamas's Conditions for Governance: Analysts believe Hamas is willing to hand over governance but requires guarantees before laying down arms, citing Israel's history of assassinations of Hamas negotiators as a deterrent to confidence-building.

Obstacles to the Next Phase of the Ceasefire Deal

Several significant obstacles and open questions are complicating efforts to move to the next phase of the ceasefire deal.

Main Topics and Key Points

• Negotiation Delays: The longer negotiations for the second phase are delayed, the more complicated the situation becomes.
• Hamas's Entrenchment: Hamas's delay in returning deceased hostages allows them to re-establish security and further entrench themselves, making future governance questions more difficult.
• Israeli Far-Right Influence: Images of Hamas reasserting power in Gaza provide a pretext for far-right Israeli ministers to call for a resumption of war.
• Key Negotiation Points: The Americans are pressuring both sides to negotiate on:
  • Future governance of Gaza.
  • Mechanisms for disarming Hamas.
  • Options for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• US Pressure for Negotiations: The current US visits are aimed at pushing both sides to the negotiation table to address these critical issues.

The Disarmament of Hamas: An Analyst's Perspective

Ahmed Fuad al-Katib, a political analyst with the Atlantic Council, discusses the feasibility of disarming Hamas.

Main Topics and Key Points

• Impossibility of Voluntary Disarmament: Al-Katib believes it is "impossible" for Hamas to voluntarily give up its weapons, as they represent its primary leverage, its identity as a resistance group, and its internal control mechanism.
• Ideological Commitment: Hamas remains ideologically committed to the destruction of Israel, even if its methods evolve.
• Internal Control: Weapons are necessary for Hamas to maintain control internally against rivals and the population.
• Ceremonial vs. Actual Disarmament: Even if Hamas agrees to a "ceremonial" disarmament, it is unlikely to surrender its main arsenal.
• Continued Armed Operation: Al-Katib expects an armed Hamas to continue operating in Gaza, even with an international stabilization force.
• Accountability and Survival: Disarming would force Hamas to admit the failure of its armed resistance, its sabotage of the Oslo Accords, and its ineffective holding of Gaza hostage for 18 years, which would be devastating to its survival.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Hamas's Motivation: Hamas's continued possession of weapons is tied to its political and societal survival, as well as its ideological stance.
• Need for an Effective Stabilization Force: Al-Katib argues that an international stabilization force must have "teeth" and an executive mandate to use force against rogue Hamas elements who refuse to surrender weapons. This is necessary for the "greater good" to outweigh Hamas's "nefarious needs."
• Critique of Israeli Warfare: Al-Katib acknowledges the devastating impact of Israel's warfare on Gaza but stresses that Hamas's re-emergence necessitates a direct confrontation, ideally with Palestinian and Arab involvement.
• Targeted Application of Force: To avoid further devastation, any military action must be highly targeted against Hamas elements.

International Stabilization Force: Control and Coordination

The discussion shifts to the operational control and composition of a potential international stabilization force.

Main Topics and Key Points

• Reluctance to Commit Troops: The fact that Hamas remains armed might make countries reluctant to commit troops to a stabilization force.
• Need for a Force with Teeth: Al-Katib reiterates that the force needs the ability to apply precise, targeted force.
• Israeli Control is Problematic: Al-Katib strongly believes the force should not be under Israeli dominion.
• Multilateral and International Control: The force should be multilateral and internationally coordinated, with US involvement and Arab/regional coordination.
• Importance of Arab and Palestinian Buy-in: For the force's mandate to be successful, it needs the cooperation and acceptance of Arab nations and the Palestinian people in Gaza.
• Problematic Partners: Turkey and Qatar are mentioned as potentially problematic partners due to their ideological stances or perceived ties to Hamas, though they could play mediation roles.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Buy-in is Crucial: The success of any stabilization force hinges on its legitimacy and acceptance by the local population and regional actors.
• Avoiding Israeli Dominance: Placing the force under Israeli control would likely alienate Arab and Palestinian support, undermining its effectiveness.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The current situation in Gaza is characterized by a fragile ceasefire, with both Israeli and Hamas actions undermining its stability. The US is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to salvage and advance a peace plan that aims to disarm Hamas, rebuild Gaza, and ensure regional security. However, significant obstacles remain, including Hamas's efforts to reassert control, the opposition of Israeli far-right factions, and the fundamental challenge of disarming Hamas, which analysts believe is unlikely to happen voluntarily. The proposed international stabilization force is seen as a necessary component, but its effectiveness will depend on its mandate, its ability to use force, and crucially, its multilateral control and acceptance by regional actors and the Palestinian population, rather than being under Israeli command. The path forward requires complex negotiations and a delicate balance of power and trust.