Can the Conservative Party recover? | BBC Newscast

Key Concepts

• Conservative Party Conference Atmosphere: Low attendance, but high energy in fringe events.
• Economic Credibility: Central argument for the Conservatives, involving welfare/civil service cuts and housing initiatives.
• European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR): Debate around withdrawal to facilitate deportations and border control.
• Integration: Discussion on community cohesion, multiculturalism vs. parallel culturalism, and the role of law.
• Judicial Scrutiny: Proposal for increased oversight of immigration tribunal judges.
• Housing Policy: Easing regulatory burdens, planning law reform, and making housing affordable for local communities.
• Reform Party: Characterized as focused on "adrenaline hits" and headlines rather than credible policy.
• Liz Truss Legacy: A persistent challenge for the Conservatives, used by opponents to undermine economic arguments.
• Leadership Challenges: Kemi Badenoch's task to gain prominence and unite the party amidst low poll numbers and upcoming difficult elections.

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Conservative Party Conference: Atmosphere and Attendance

The Conservative Party Conference in Manchester is notably quieter than previous years, with numbers of attendees significantly down. This is attributed to it being year two in a parliament, a period typically marked by lower engagement as the next general election is distant, and there's no immediate leadership race. Corporate lobbyists also show less interest.

Despite lower overall attendance, there's a "Darwinian" energy among those who did attend, particularly at fringe events. These smaller venues are often standing room only or have queues, indicating a committed base eager to be involved in the party's future and ideas. The main hall, however, is described as "a bit on the thin side" for some speakers.

Key Policy Announcements and Economic Strategy

Mel Stride, the Shadow Chancellor, delivered a speech outlining the party's economic vision, aiming to establish "clear blue water" between Conservatives, Labour, and Reform. Key proposals include:

• Significant cuts to welfare and the size of the civil service to ensure the country lives "within its means."
• "First Five Thousand" initiative: The first £5,000 of an individual's National Insurance contributions, upon starting their first job, would go into a pot usable towards a home or other purposes.
• Abolition of business rates for smaller businesses in England to support high streets.

The party intends to "double down" on this economic credibility argument, which will be central to Kemi Badenoch's upcoming speech. However, a major challenge is the legacy of Liz Truss's premiership, which opponents are expected to repeatedly invoke. There's an internal, private discussion about whether the party needs a "public reckoning" with Liz Truss to draw a clear line between past events and current policy, similar to how Labour uses "Black Wednesday" or Conservatives use "Gordon Brown selling the gold."

Robert Jenrick's Comments on Integration and Judicial Scrutiny

Robert Jenrick, the Shadow Justice Secretary, sparked controversy over a leaked recording from a few months prior. In it, he described Handsworth, a Birmingham suburb, as "messy" and "untidy," stating that he "didn't see a single white person in the street" during a 90-minute visit, which he viewed as a "failure of integration."

• Response to Criticism: Jenrick strongly dismisses accusations of racism, arguing his point was solely about integration. He linked a "lack of integration" to a country going into a "very dark place," citing a recent incident outside a synagogue as an illustration. He is not disputing the recording and believes his comments were "prescient."
• Policy Proposal: Jenrick proposed increased scrutiny on judges, particularly those in immigration tribunals who hear cases against deportation or asylum rejections. He claimed to have "dug into their political interests," suggesting the existence of "activist judges." This raises questions about the separation of powers and the legitimate role of politicians in the judiciary, especially amidst political arguments about "two-tier justice."

Interview with James Cleverly, Shadow Housing Secretary

James Cleverly provided further insights during an interview:

• Conference Atmosphere: He confirmed the conference is quieter, acknowledging the "reality of being in opposition has fully hit home." He noted a positive trend: the average age of delegates has "probably dropped by about 20 years," and fringe events are "genuinely very, very busy."
• Reform Party vs. Conservatives: Cleverly distinguished the Conservatives' approach from the Reform Party, which he characterized as seeking "adrenaline hits," "clicks and likes," and "razzmatazz" rather than credible governance.
• Kemi Badenoch's Deportation Target: Regarding Kemi Badenoch's target of 150,000 annual deportations, Cleverly argued it's not a "made-up number" like Reform's headlines. He stated it's "underpinned by our commitment about the ECHR" and based on Lord Wolfson's 180-page legal opinion, which involved "proper thinking" about the implications of leaving the ECHR and necessary accompanying actions. He compared this to Labour's housing targets, asserting the Conservatives "show our workings out." He conceded that such targets rely on international cooperation, but argued this is true for all government activities.
• Stance on ECHR: Cleverly has "always been conscious" of how the "creative interpretation" of the ECHR has made it difficult to deport violent criminals, undermining public trust. He clarified his long-standing position that leaving the ECHR is "not a silver bullet," a view reinforced by Lord Wolfson's report, which indicates it's "more complicated than that" and requires other measures.
• Misleading Anecdotes: He explicitly stated that the widely reported anecdote about an Albanian man not being deported because his child disliked "chicken nuggets" in Albania is "not true," despite its use by some colleagues, including Robert Jenrick. He highlighted the success of the UK's returns agreement with Albania, which has cut illegal Albanian migration by 90%. He also cited difficulties deporting Pakistani, Indian, and Jamaican criminals due to the ECHR, emphasizing the need for international agreements to be "relevant for the modern age."
• Robert Jenrick's Integration Comments: Cleverly, whose own speech emphasized community integration, criticized the "left-wing subscription to the idea of multiculturalism" for leading to "parallel culturalism," where different communities are not held by the same laws. He advocates for the "dispassionate and universal application of the laws." While not condemning Jenrick directly without hearing the full recording, he acknowledged that Jenrick "could have chosen his words more carefully." He also deferred to Andy Street, the former Mayor of the West Midlands, as knowing his city "better than anyone" regarding the integration of Handsworth.
• Housing Policy: Cleverly outlined plans to ease regulatory burdens and loosen planning laws to build more houses, acknowledging that the current system "isn't working." The goal is to make it easier for communities to say "yes" to developments by ensuring local residents can afford new homes and improving build quality. He highlighted the unacceptable rate of 5,000 new housing completions in London (a city of 10 million people) in the current year.
• London Mayoral Ambition: Cleverly did not rule out a run for London Mayor in 2028, stating he'd be "stupid not to think about it," despite his "heart being in Essex."

Internal Party Divisions and Kemi Badenoch's Leadership

A divide is emerging within the Conservative Party regarding Robert Jenrick's language on integration. While Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch stand by his remarks, James Cleverly and Mel Stride expressed discomfort with the specific phrasing, suggesting a preference for more careful language. Jenrick's "punchy, unflinching, unvarnished" communication style is noted as potentially causing friction even among colleagues.

Kemi Badenoch's upcoming conference speech is her first as leader. She faces a challenging environment: the party is grappling with a "massive election defeat," is in the "teens in the opinion polls," and she is "the least well-known of the big Westminster party leaders." Her task is to be noticed, shape the argument, and convince both MPs and the wider party that she is the right leader. The party anticipates "really tricky elections coming up next May" in England, Scotland, and Wales, fearing another "low point." The focus will be on fleshing out economic and borders arguments, including the ECHR and small boats. Despite the challenges, there appears to be little "leadership plotting" at the conference, though "chat" and "gallows humor" are present. The current situation is compared to 1998, when the Conservatives were a year out from a colossal defeat but were still the main opposition party in opinion polls, a position they often don't hold in the current national conversation.

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Conclusion

The Conservative Party Conference reveals a party in a difficult period, grappling with the realities of opposition and low public approval. While attendance is down, a committed core remains, particularly active in fringe events. The party is attempting to redefine its identity through a focus on "economic credibility" (with significant cuts and housing initiatives) and a robust stance on borders and immigration, including a potential withdrawal from the ECHR. However, these efforts are complicated by the lingering shadow of Liz Truss's economic policies and internal tensions over the language used to discuss sensitive issues like integration, as exemplified by Robert Jenrick's controversial comments. Kemi Badenoch faces the formidable task of uniting the party, raising her public profile, and convincing the electorate of the Conservatives' renewed vision ahead of challenging elections, all while navigating a political landscape where they struggle to be the dominant voice of opposition.