Can Myanmar’s elections bring an end to its civil war?

Key Concepts

• Tatmadaw: Myanmar’s military.
• Honta: The State Administration Council, the military junta that seized power in Myanmar.
• 2008 Constitution: The constitution drafted by the military that maintains significant power for the armed forces.
• Ang San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD): The democratically elected party overthrown in the 2021 coup, subsequently banned from participating in the 2025 elections.
• China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC): A key Chinese infrastructure project in Myanmar, influencing China’s support for the current regime.
• Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM): The widespread protests and resistance movement against the military coup.

Myanmar’s 2025 Elections: A Path to Stability or Continued Conflict?

This report details the context, execution, and likely outcomes of Myanmar’s 2025 elections, held under the control of the Tatmadaw following the February 1st, 2021 coup. The elections are presented by the Honta as a means to restore order and legitimacy, but are widely viewed by international observers and domestic critics as a sham designed to consolidate military power.

The Coup and Subsequent Civil War

The video begins by establishing the context of the 2021 coup, which overthrew Myanmar’s democratically elected government. This act triggered widespread protests, brutally suppressed by the Tatmadaw, and ultimately led to the formation of armed resistance movements and the resurgence of long-standing ethnic conflicts. The ensuing civil war has resulted in thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons. The elections are framed as the Honta’s attempt to navigate this crisis.

Constitutional Framework and Election Justification

The Tatmadaw’s justification for the coup and subsequent elections rests on the 2008 Constitution, drafted during the previous period of military rule (1962-2011). This constitution, while ostensibly paving the way for elections, ensured the military retained significant independent power and remained beyond civilian oversight. According to the Honta, the 2020 elections were “illegal and void,” necessitating the 2025 elections to transition the current military regime into a “semi-civilian” government, as outlined in the 2008 Constitution. The elections were conducted in phases, beginning on December 28, 2025, and concluding on January 25, 2026.

Election Process and Criticisms

The elections were widely criticized as neither free nor fair. Key opposition parties, including Ang San Suu Kyi’s NLD, were banned from participation, along with at least 40 others. Voting was restricted to areas controlled by the military or its allies, effectively disenfranchising millions of citizens in areas held by anti-Honta forces. Reports indicate widespread coercion, with civilians pressured to abstain from voting or to support military-affiliated candidates. Only six parties contested the elections, all approved by or linked to the military. International actors, including the EU, the UN, and ASEAN, have condemned the elections as a “sham.”

Election Results and International Response

Initial results showed a low turnout of 52% in the first round, significantly lower than the 70% turnout in the 2020 elections. The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a pro-military party, secured over 90% of the lower house seats. Despite widespread condemnation, China has been notably supportive of the Honta’s move to hold elections, viewing a stable central government in Myanmar as crucial for protecting its interests, particularly those related to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). China’s priority is to maintain stability along its southern border and safeguard its investments in Myanmar.

Future Outlook and Potential for Conflict Resolution

The video highlights a pessimistic outlook regarding the potential for the elections to resolve the ongoing civil war. Experts suggest the widespread discontent and even “hatred” towards the military regime are so pervasive that any new civilian government established under military influence will be unable to initiate meaningful dialogue with opposition forces. The conflicts, particularly those in peripheral regions, predate the coup, but the coup itself has fueled a mass mobilization against the military, making a peaceful resolution unlikely. The situation echoes the military’s controlled democratization process in the 2010s, which ultimately led to Ang San Suu Kyi’s NLD victory in 2015, but the current context is significantly different due to the scale of resistance and the depth of animosity towards the Tatmadaw.

Notable Quote:

“I do not think it will end any of the conflicts that have been started since the coup… the discontent… the even hatred of the military regime is so widespread in the country that I do not think that the new government… will be able to bring to the table any meaningful talks.” – Expert commentary on the likelihood of conflict resolution.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

Myanmar’s 2025 elections represent a strategic maneuver by the Tatmadaw to legitimize its rule and consolidate power, rather than a genuine attempt to restore democracy. The elections are deeply flawed, lack credibility, and are unlikely to bring an end to the ongoing civil war. China’s support for the Honta is driven by its strategic and economic interests in the region, further complicating the prospects for a peaceful and democratic resolution to the crisis. The future of Myanmar remains uncertain, with the potential for continued conflict and instability.