Can Israel protect hostages while escalating its Gaza offensive? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Ceasefire proposal for Gaza (US-backed)
• Hostage release (remaining 20 alive, remains of 30 others)
• Hamas disarmament
• Israeli military operation in Gaza (expanded assault)
• Netanyahu's conflicting pressures (public vs. coalition)
• "Total victory" (Netanyahu's goal)
• Governance, security, and reconstruction of Gaza
• Public opinion in Israel (hostage deal, end to war)
• Netanyahu's declining confidence (ultra-Orthodox exemption, judicial reform, accountability for Oct 7)
• Worst-case outcome (major ground operation in Gaza City)
• Arab peacekeeping force
• Internal Israeli political divisions regarding the war

1. Ceasefire Proposal and Conflicting Positions:

• Hamas has accepted a ceasefire proposal for Gaza, mirroring a US-backed plan.
• Israel has not directly responded but insists on the release of all remaining hostages (20 alive) and the return of the remains of 30 others.
• Benjamin Netanyahu vows the war will continue until Hamas is disarmed.
• Mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States are trying to facilitate a deal.
• Israel is preparing for an expanded assault on populated areas of Gaza.

2. Netanyahu's Pressures and Potential Pivots:

• Netanyahu faces conflicting pressures: public protests favoring a deal versus coalition partners (Bizmo and Itar Bengavir) demanding the total destruction of Hamas.
• The Trump administration believes hostages won't be freed until Hamas is destroyed.
• Netanyahu might accept a partial agreement but is unlikely to embrace a comprehensive agreement requiring Israeli withdrawal and a formal end to the war.
• Netanyahu's "total victory" includes disarming Hamas, expelling its leadership, and controlling Gaza's security architecture.

3. Unanswered Questions About Gaza's Future:

• Three critical questions remain unanswered: who will govern Gaza, who will provide security, and who will undertake reconstruction.
• These issues are not being addressed, making a true end to the war seem distant.

4. Hostage Leverage and Public Opinion:

• The hostage issue has limited leverage over war planning due to Netanyahu's political considerations.
• Public opinion polls show Israelis want the war ended and hostages redeemed, but this doesn't necessarily translate to support for Netanyahu.
• Netanyahu has lost confidence on issues like exempting ultra-Orthodox from military service, judicial reform, and lack of accountability for October 7.

5. Worst-Case Scenario and Potential Outcomes:

• The worst-case outcome involves a major Israeli ground operation in Gaza City, leading to loss of Israeli soldiers and hostages.
• Hamas has standing orders to execute hostages if Israeli soldiers approach.
• Continued war will cause immense suffering, economic dislocation, and potential starvation in Gaza.

6. Post-War Gaza and Arab Involvement:

• Israel wants to prevent a Hamas resurgence but doesn't want to keep Gaza.
• The question is who will maintain law and order and prevent Hamas from regaining power.
• Netanyahu has hinted at an Arab peacekeeping force, contingent on ending the war, alleviating Gazan suffering, and addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

7. Hamas's Perspective and Pressures:

• Hamas is under pressure due to Israeli military advances and the suffering of Gazans.
• They also face pressure to avoid further displacement of people from Gaza City.

8. Internal Israeli Political Divisions:

• There is confusion within the Israeli government regarding the ceasefire proposal.
• Netanyahu may be pressured by right-wing ministers to conquer the entire Gaza Strip, potentially derailing a hostage deal.
• Public protests in Israel demand a hostage deal and an end to the war.

9. Military Dissent and Government Response:

• Netanyahu has criticized dissent from the military, even threatening to dismiss reservists who speak out.
• There is a growing rift between Israel's military leadership and Netanyahu's government over Gaza.
• The chief of staff's objection to Netanyahu's plan damages the morale of soldiers.

10. Hostage Situation and War Planning:

• The chief of staff believes conquering Gaza is a death trap for hostages and Israeli soldiers.
• The government's plan to destroy Hamas while saving hostages is seen as contradictory.

11. Karim Elgahari's Assessment:

• Hamas is under pressure from Israeli military advances into Gaza City.
• Hamas is under pressure from their own people to end the war and avoid further displacement.
• Netanyahu is under pressure to end the war internationally and domestically.

12. Guy Puran's Assessment:

• The Israeli public is confused by the conflicting messages from Hamas and the Israeli government.
• Netanyahu is under pressure from extreme right-wing ministers to conquer the entire Gaza Strip.
• The Israeli public overwhelmingly supports a hostage deal and an end to the war.
• Netanyahu is ignoring public opinion and pushing a law to exempt ultra-Orthodox from military service.
• Many reservists are not showing up for duty in Gaza.
• The chief of staff's disagreement with Netanyahu's plan is damaging the morale of soldiers.
• Conquering Gaza is incompatible with saving the remaining hostages.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The situation is highly complex, with a ceasefire proposal on the table but significant obstacles to its implementation. Netanyahu faces conflicting pressures from his coalition and the Israeli public. Fundamental questions about the future of Gaza remain unanswered, and a major military operation carries severe risks. Internal political divisions within Israel further complicate the path forward. The fate of the hostages hangs in the balance, with the government's strategy facing criticism from both the public and military leaders.