Can Iran use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in talks with the US? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint currently under Iranian restriction, serving as a strategic economic lever.
• War of Attrition: The current state of the conflict, which has cost the Iranian economy an estimated $1 trillion.
• Sanctions Relief: A primary Iranian objective to facilitate the reconstruction of civilian infrastructure.
• Non-Proliferation: The issue of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, which is proposed to be handled via the IAEA rather than direct US seizure.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): The military organization whose generals are increasingly replacing seasoned, pragmatic politicians in Iran’s leadership.

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1. Diplomatic Context and Negotiations

Pakistan is mediating high-stakes negotiations between the United States and Iran, scheduled to take place in Islamabad. Security in the capital has been significantly tightened, with a 3-kilometer security zone established around the venue. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called for regional restraint, specifically criticizing Israel’s ongoing military actions in Lebanon.

2. Iran’s 10-Point Negotiation Plan

Iran has presented a comprehensive 10-point plan to the US, which includes:

• Economic Demands: The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions and the release of frozen assets.
• Military Demands: The withdrawal of US military forces from the Middle East and a cessation of attacks on Iran and its allies.
• Maritime Control: Formalizing a toll system for ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz to fund domestic reconstruction.

3. The Strait of Hormuz: Strategic Chokepoint

The Strait is currently operating at a near-standstill. Iran has restricted transit to approximately 15 vessels per day, down from 140 per day prior to February 28th.

• International Stance: The European Union and other international bodies maintain that international law guarantees "freedom of navigation," rendering any toll system illegal.
• Expert Perspective: Cena Azodi (George Washington University) argues that Iran views the Strait as a "stranglehold" to coerce adversaries. Even without a total closure, Iran can destabilize global markets by attacking just one or two ships, causing insurance premiums to spike.

4. Strategic Objectives and Divergent Interests

• Iran’s Motivation: Despite its leverage in the Strait, Iran is desperate for a ceasefire due to the economic devastation of the war. The country requires massive capital to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by US and Israeli strikes.
• Israel’s Strategy: Azodi argues that Israel seeks to continue the conflict to achieve regime change, a goal that has remained elusive. Israel is accused of attempting to "poke" Iran into violating the ceasefire to force a resumption of hostilities.
• US-Israel Divergence: While the US and Israel are allies, their interests are not perfectly aligned. The US does not benefit from the fragmentation or destabilization of a large nation like Iran, whereas Israel may view such outcomes as favorable. There is concern that Israel may attempt to draw the US into a protracted conflict based on overly optimistic assessments of regime collapse.

5. Nuclear Enrichment and Leadership Changes

• Uranium Enrichment: Azodi contends that Iran will not abandon the principle of enrichment. He suggests that the issue of highly enriched uranium should be resolved through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) rather than direct US intervention, as direct seizure by the US would be viewed as a humiliation that hardliners in Tehran would sabotage.
• Leadership Shift: The Iranian leadership landscape has shifted toward a more rigid, military-focused demographic. Seasoned, pragmatic figures (such as the late Ali Larijani) have been replaced by IRGC generals. This new generation is characterized as more hardline, potentially complicating future diplomatic flexibility.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The upcoming negotiations in Islamabad represent a critical juncture for both the US and Iran. While Iran possesses significant leverage through its control of the Strait of Hormuz, its domestic economic collapse necessitates a diplomatic settlement. However, the path to peace is obstructed by conflicting regional agendas—specifically Israel’s desire to continue the conflict and the rise of a more hardline, military-dominated leadership in Tehran. The consensus is that a sustainable resolution requires a broader regional settlement that addresses the security concerns of all parties while navigating the complex, non-negotiable aspects of Iran’s nuclear and military posture.