Can Iran control the flow of data like they control the flow of oil? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Submarine Fiber Optic Cables: The physical infrastructure on the seabed that carries the vast majority of global internet traffic, financial transactions, and communications.
• Choke Point: A strategic geographical location (like the Strait of Hormuz) where the concentration of infrastructure creates a single point of failure.
• Hybrid Warfare: A military strategy that blends conventional warfare with cyber warfare, sabotage, and economic coercion, often falling below the threshold of open kinetic conflict.
• Hyperscalers: Large technology companies (e.g., Amazon, Google, Microsoft) that build massive data centers and fund their own submarine cable infrastructure.
• Redundancy: The existence of alternative data paths (terrestrial or other submarine cables) that allow traffic to reroute if a primary cable is severed.
• Protection Racket: A form of extortion where an actor threatens to damage infrastructure unless a "fee" or "toll" is paid.

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1. The Strategic Vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz

While the Strait of Hormuz is globally recognized for oil transit, it is equally critical as a digital artery. High-speed internet cables traversing the seabed are essential for the Gulf region’s burgeoning AI infrastructure and financial sectors. Eric Brown, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, notes that these cables are not merely conduits for data but are now targets in a "hybrid war." Iran’s recent threats to extract revenue from these cables are viewed by experts as a "protection racket," signaling a willingness to sabotage critical digital infrastructure to exert geopolitical leverage.

2. Risks to Global Data and Infrastructure

• Physical Vulnerability: Cables are most susceptible to damage in shallow waters near coastlines, where they are exposed to dragging anchors and fishing nets.
• Repair Logistics: There are only 60–80 specialized repair vessels globally, with a very limited subset dedicated to the Middle East. Repairs are hindered by:
  • Bureaucracy: Navigating the territorial regulations of the state where the damage occurred.
  • Insurance: Underwriters are increasingly reluctant to cover repair vessels operating in active conflict zones.
  • Kinetic Threats: The presence of naval mines or hostile state actors poses a direct danger to repair crews.
• Economic Impact: Damage to these cables would have immediate "knock-on effects" for global financial markets and communications, as data centers in the Gulf rely entirely on these connections to remain functional.

3. Geopolitical Implications and Policy Responses

The destruction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline served as a wake-up call for international bodies, shifting the focus of NATO, the EU, and the UN toward the protection of undersea infrastructure.

• Policy Shift: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has identified submarine cables as a top priority for NATO, alongside critical minerals.
• Precedent Setting: Experts warn that if Iran successfully extracts tolls or exerts leverage through these cables, it could create a dangerous precedent, encouraging other nations to replicate such tactics at other global maritime choke points.
• Investment Uncertainty: The threat of disruption is forcing tech companies to reconsider the "digital bet" on the Gulf region. While the region offers cheap energy and capital, the lack of secure, redundant infrastructure may drive future investment toward alternative routes, such as the Arctic-to-Asia cable projects.

4. Regulatory and Ownership Challenges

The current governance of submarine cables is outdated, originating from an era that did not anticipate intentional state-sponsored sabotage.

• Ownership Models: Cables are increasingly owned by "hyperscalers" rather than telecommunications consortia. This allows for faster deployment but concentrates control in the hands of private entities.
• Legal Ambiguity: While nations have regulatory authority within their territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), cables in the "high seas" rely on international law, which provides limited protection against hybrid threats or intentional sabotage.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The global economy is increasingly reliant on a fragile, physical network of cables that are difficult to repair and easy to target. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz highlights a shift in modern warfare where digital connectivity is as vital as energy security. As Eric Brown suggests, the world must move beyond viewing these cables as mere commercial assets and begin treating them as critical national security infrastructure. The primary takeaway is that the "digital future" is physically tethered to the seabed, and without updated international frameworks and enhanced physical protection, the global economy remains highly exposed to state-sponsored disruption.