Can Gulf nations close the gap between Iran and the US? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Geopolitical Mediation: The role of regional powers (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Turkey) in de-escalating tensions between the US and Iran.
• Maximalist Demands: The extreme, non-negotiable positions held by both the US and Iran, complicating diplomatic progress.
• Regional Security Architecture: The interconnected defense systems in the Gulf, which Iran views as extensions of US power.
• Containment vs. Regime Change: The strategic shift in Gulf states from seeking a modus vivendi (peaceful coexistence) with Iran to a policy of containment and quarantine.
• Nuclear Non-Proliferation: The US demand for zero nuclear weapons capability in Iran versus Iran’s insistence on domestic enrichment rights.

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1. The Diplomatic Standoff

The US recently paused a planned military strike on Iran following direct requests from Gulf nations (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE). These nations argued that diplomatic negotiations were at a critical juncture. However, the prospect of a deal remains slim due to the "maximalist" nature of the demands from both sides.

• Iranian Demands: Deputy Foreign Minister Kazim Garibadi has outlined a list of requirements, including the lifting of all sanctions, the release of frozen funds, an end to military operations in Lebanon, the withdrawal of US forces from the region, and reparations for war damages.
• US Stance: The US maintains that Iran must have zero nuclear weapons capability.
• The "Winning" Trap: Dr. Ha Helier notes that both sides currently perceive themselves as being in a "winning" position—the US due to its status as a superpower and its ability to degrade Iranian military capacity, and Iran due to its survival against US-Israeli strikes. This mutual perception of strength prevents necessary concessions.

2. The Role of Gulf States

Gulf nations are not a monolithic bloc; their involvement in the conflict and mediation efforts varies significantly.

• Mediation Quartet: Pakistan acts as the primary mediator, supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey.
• Internal Divisions:
  • The Hawkish Camp: Countries like the UAE have been more aggressive, focusing on preventing Iran from controlling the Strait of Hormuz or gaining further military capacity.
  • The Mediation Camp: Oman and Qatar have historically favored diplomatic channels, though they remain wary of Iran’s destabilizing influence.
• Strategic Realignment: Dr. Helier emphasizes that the era of "business as usual" is over. Gulf states have reached a consensus that Iran must be contained and quarantined, as they no longer believe a modus vivendi is possible.

3. The Nuclear Issue and Trust Deficit

The nuclear negotiation is hampered by a profound lack of trust.

• The "Venn Diagram" of Compromise: Dr. Helier suggests a potential middle ground exists where Iran maintains enrichment capacity for peaceful purposes while providing guarantees against weaponization.
• Iranian Skepticism: Iran views US negotiations with deep distrust, citing the US track record of attacking during diplomatic processes. Furthermore, Iran points to the double standard regarding Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal, which the US has never sought to curtail.

4. Military Dynamics and Regional Security

• Secret Strikes: It has been confirmed that Saudi Arabia and the UAE conducted secret strikes against Iran in retaliation for Iranian attacks. Dr. Helier suggests that Iran likely views these strikes with a degree of "respect" rather than betrayal, as they confirm these nations are active participants in the regional security architecture rather than mere "sitting ducks."
• Defense Posture: Gulf states are currently seeking to improve their independent defense capabilities to avoid being used as tools for either American or Israeli regional designs.

5. Notable Quotes

• Dr. Ha Helier: "The problem with this negotiation is simply that the two sides first have positions that are very distant from each other... but also both sides view themselves as being in a winning position."
• Dr. Ha Helier: "I think that there’s now consensus across the Gulf that you cannot look at the Iranian regime as a state where normal relations can develop over time. You’re going to have to contain it."

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The current situation is defined by a fragile pause in direct military conflict, sustained only by the intervention of Gulf allies who fear the regional instability that a full-scale war would trigger. Despite the willingness to talk, the fundamental gap between US and Iranian demands—coupled with a deep-seated lack of trust—makes a comprehensive deal unlikely in the near term. The Gulf states have shifted their long-term strategy from engagement to containment, recognizing that the previous status quo is permanently broken. The future of the region will likely be defined by a "quarantine" of Iranian influence rather than a return to diplomatic normalcy.