Can Donald Trump secure a deal with Cuba? | The Economist

Key Concepts

• Transactional Diplomacy: A non-ideological approach to foreign policy focusing on deal-making rather than rigid political stances.
• Crony Capitalism: A system where business success is dependent on close relationships between business people and government officials.
• The Embargo (The Blockade): Long-standing U.S. economic sanctions against Cuba, codified by Congressional law, which restrict trade and travel.
• Regime Change vs. Economic Opening: The tension between demanding democratic transitions (free and fair elections) and prioritizing economic liberalization to sustain the current regime.
• Political Capital: The influence held by specific demographics (e.g., Cuban Americans in Florida) that constrains or empowers political leaders to act on foreign policy.

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1. Main Topics and Key Points

The discussion centers on the potential for a "transactional" deal between the U.S. (under a Trump/Rubio administration) and the Cuban government.

• The Deal Framework: The proposed deal would likely involve the U.S. alleviating economic pressure (lifting the oil embargo/blockade) in exchange for a credible, long-term plan for multi-party, free and fair elections.
• The "Rubio-Trump" Factor: Because of their strong Republican credentials and influence within the Cuban-American community, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump possess the unique political capital to sell a compromise to their base that other politicians could not.
• The Obstacle of Congress: Decades of hardline legislation have made it legally difficult for any U.S. president to unilaterally lift the embargo without Congressional approval.

2. Real-World Applications and Perspectives

• The Florida Shift: Florida has transitioned from a "purple" swing state to a "red" state. While younger Cuban Americans were once open to liberalization (as seen during the Obama era), the post-2017 period saw a return to hardline attitudes, largely driven by Trump’s rhetoric.
• Joe Garcia’s Perspective: A former Democratic congressman who argues that Cuban Americans are ready to accept a deal if it is delivered by leaders like Trump and Rubio, regardless of the specific details, because they trust these figures to protect their interests.

3. Key Arguments and Supporting Evidence

• The Case for Deal-Making: Proponents argue that six decades of ideological confrontation have resulted in "utter misery." A transactional approach is viewed as a pragmatic alternative to the status quo.
• The Skepticism of Trump’s Methodology:
  • Crony Capitalism: Critics argue that any deal struck by Trump would likely prioritize contracts for his associates rather than genuine economic development for the Cuban people.
  • Lack of Follow-through: There is significant concern regarding Trump’s "attention span." Critics argue that a complex, multi-year transition plan requires consistent, long-term commitment—a trait they claim is absent in Trump’s political style.
• The "Shabby Deal" Argument: A counter-perspective suggests that even a flawed or "shabby" deal is preferable if it successfully dismantles the current "bankrupt and decrepit" regime, given the proximity of Cuba to the U.S. and the inherent American interest in the region.

4. Notable Quotes

• Joe Garcia: "If they find how to get a willing partner on the other side, it doesn't matter what that kroeta looks like, Cuban Americans will eat it... The Cubans just got to get out of their own way."
• Christopher (on the risk of cronyism): "The problem with Donald Trump is he's not just a capitalist. He's a crony capitalist... it will be postponed and really used as a way of extending contracts to all of his friends."
• Sarah (on the need for consistency): "If we come up with this plan that requires an attention span of longer than a couple of weeks... it's like, 'I've done the deal, I've had the publicity... and that's it.'"

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The consensus among the participants is that a window of opportunity exists for a U.S.-Cuba deal, driven by the unique political positioning of Marco Rubio and Donald Trump. However, the success of such an initiative is highly uncertain. While the "transactional" approach offers a potential exit from sixty years of failed policy, it faces two major hurdles: the Cuban regime’s own resistance to reform and the concern that a Trump-led deal would be characterized by cronyism and a lack of the sustained, nuanced follow-through required for a genuine political transition. The debate ultimately pits the desire for a pragmatic, immediate end to the current regime against the fear of a superficial, self-serving agreement.