‘BREAKOUT’: There’s a new bull market in THIS industry, investment strategist reveals

Key Concepts

• S&P 500 Target: 7500 by year-end, representing a ~10% gain.
• Earnings Growth: Projected at 15% for the year.
• Secular Bull Market: A long-term market trend lasting 15-20 years, identified in metals/mining and international markets.
• Yield Curve Steepening: Indicates improving economic outlook and benefits banks.
• Duration Risk: The risk associated with changes in interest rates affecting bond prices (longer duration = higher risk).
• US Exceptionalism Trade: The historical outperformance of US markets relative to international markets, which slowed in 2025.
• Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy: Expectations of easing (rate cuts) are crucial for maintaining the bull market.

Market Outlook for 2026: A Focus on Earnings, Metals, and International Exposure

Economic Foundation & Market Targets

Sanctuary Wealth’s Chief Investment Strategist, Maryanne Bartell, maintains a positive outlook for the market, forecasting the S&P 500 to reach 7500 by the end of 2026. This projection, representing approximately a 10% gain, is underpinned by a strong economy and anticipated corporate earnings growth of around 15%. Bartell emphasizes that earnings are the primary driver of stock performance, stating, “Strong economy allows companies to continue to produce earnings. And earnings is really what powers stocks higher.”

Sector Leadership & Rotation

While acknowledging the dominance of Big Tech, Bartell suggests a potential “pause” or “reset” for the sector. Semiconductors are highlighted as a key area within tech, with some companies already achieving new highs. However, she anticipates a broader market rotation, with banks benefiting from a steepening yield curve. She also identifies opportunities in utilities and select industrial pockets. Despite ongoing discussion around value and small-cap stocks, Bartell believes growth will continue to lead, stating, “I don’t think small cap has the earning power to take over leadership. Nor do I think the whole pocket of value has the earnings power to take over leadership.”

The Rise of Precious and Industrial Metals

A particularly strong conviction expressed by Bartell is the bullish outlook for the metals market. She describes a “new secular bull market” in metals, driven by factors including inflation, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchasing. This extends beyond gold, with silver and copper also showing breakout potential. Bartell recommends adding to metal stocks, noting that investors are currently “not overweight this space.” She characterizes this as a significant opportunity, stating, “That's if there's a pocket of the market I'm extremely bullish on, it's the metals and the metal stocks.”

International Markets: A New Secular Trend

Bartell highlights a shift in the “US exceptionalism trade,” where US markets previously outperformed international markets. In 2025, international markets actually surpassed US performance. She believes this signals the beginning of a new secular bull market in non-US/international markets, potentially lasting 15-20 years. She advocates for dollar-cost averaging into international markets, stating, “Never in my career can I remember both the US and non-US in a secular bull market at the same time.”

Key Risks & Bond Market Considerations

The primary risk identified that could derail the bull market is a reversal in Federal Reserve policy – specifically, a need to raise interest rates instead of lowering them. Bartell clarifies that this is not currently factored into her firm’s outlook, as they anticipate a continued easing of monetary policy.

Regarding bonds, Bartell acknowledges their role in portfolio diversification, likening them to “vegetables” – beneficial but not necessarily the primary growth driver. She anticipates the short end of the yield curve to decline, benefiting shorter-term bonds. However, she expresses caution about taking on significant “duration risk” due to the stickiness of the 10-year yield and tight spreads, ultimately favoring equities for superior returns. “I think you can add bonds to diversify your portfolio, but I think in the end, equities are going to win.”

Logical Connections & Synthesis

The discussion flows logically from a broad economic outlook to specific sector recommendations. The emphasis on earnings growth provides a foundational rationale for the S&P 500 target. The identification of secular bull markets in metals and international markets represents a longer-term investment thesis, while the discussion of risks and bonds provides a more nuanced perspective on portfolio construction. The overall message is one of continued optimism, tempered by awareness of potential headwinds and the importance of diversification.

Data & Statistics Mentioned

• S&P 500 Target: 7500
• Projected Earnings Growth: 15%
• Secular Bull Market Duration: 15-20 years (for metals and international markets)

Conclusion

Maryanne Bartell presents a constructive outlook for 2026, driven by a resilient economy and strong earnings potential. While acknowledging the need for sector rotation and risk management, she identifies compelling opportunities in metals, international markets, and select areas within the tech and financial sectors. The core takeaway is that investors should position themselves to benefit from continued growth, while remaining vigilant about potential risks, particularly related to Federal Reserve policy.