BREAKING: Ukraine says it is ready for 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday 12th | DW Analysis

Key Concepts

• 30-day unconditional ceasefire
• Coalition of the willing
• Russian aggression
• European unity
• US support
• Sanctions
• Military aid
• Narrative warfare
• Security guarantees
• Reconstruction of Ukraine

Summary

1. Call for a 30-Day Unconditional Ceasefire

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and leaders from Germany, Poland, France, and the UK held a phone call with US President Donald Trump.
• They are calling for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire with Russia, starting on Monday.
• Ukraine's Foreign Minister described the phone call as "fruitful."
• The leaders are part of the "coalition of the willing," aiming to pave the way for lasting peace in Ukraine.
• The ceasefire proposal was initially put forward by Zelenskyy about two months prior.
• The US position is now "absolutely clear" in relation to the 30-day ceasefire proposal.

2. Joint Visit to Kiev and Security Measures

• This is the first joint visit of these European leaders to Kiev.
• German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz's first visit in his position.
• French President Emmanuel Macron's first visit in two years.
• Security in Kiev is very tight, with central parts of the city restricted and bomb sweeps conducted.
• The leaders laid flowers at a memorial in Maidan, increasing the security presence.

3. The Role of Germany and Friedrich Mertz

• Germany is now able to take decisions and take a lead, as vowed by Friedrich Mertz.
• The previous chancellor, Olaf Scholz, was perceived as hesitant.
• Germany is the second-largest supporter of Ukraine, after the United States, in terms of financial and defense support.
• Mertz is seen as more decisive and willing to call Vladimir Putin's bluff.
• He initially advocated for delivering specific weapons (Taurus missiles) if Russia targeted civilian infrastructure, but has been more cautious since becoming chancellor.
• European leaders are relieved to have Germany back in a leading role.

4. US Support and Donald Trump's Involvement

• The United States' support for Ukraine has wavered at times, but has firmed up recently.
• The European leaders are trying to maintain a tight relationship between Europe, the US, and Ukraine.
• They are hoping to see the fruits of this relationship after the talks.
• The leaders reported on their work to President Trump and thanked him for his initiative.
• They agreed on relevant terms for the ceasefire and working towards robust and lasting peace.
• The underlying truth is that the Americans continue to guarantee security in Europe.

5. Russia's Position and Potential Obstacles

• President Putin has been saying that he will not agree to a 30-day ceasefire.
• Russian spokesperson Dimitri Peskov stated that they will not consider a ceasefire as long as Western allies keep sending arms to Ukraine.
• Bridging this gap seems a long way off at this stage.
• Putin has sought to put conditions on a ceasefire, which the coalition rejects.

6. Statements from European Leaders

• UK Prime Minister: Only one country started the conflict (Russia), and only one country stands in the way of resolving it peacefully. An unconditional ceasefire is a ceasefire without conditions.
• French President Emmanuel Macron: Ukraine is fighting for its sovereignty and independence, and is the beating heart of Europe. The camp of peace is in Kiev, while the camp of war is in Moscow.
• German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz: Germany has an obligation to stand up for peace and freedom across the globe. The war was caused exclusively by Russia and is an illegal war of aggression.
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk: Poland has been supporting Ukraine since the first hours of Russia's aggression. The call for peace and an unconditional ceasefire comes from Kiev.

7. The Importance of Unity and Narrative

• The leaders are emphasizing the strength of their unity and the importance of standing together.
• This is a fight over the narrative, particularly in Russia, where Putin claims Ukraine started the war.
• The goal is to expose Russia as the one who doesn't want peace.
• The leaders are calling out Putin for offering delays and smoke screens instead of peace.

8. Future Steps and Sanctions

• If Russia denies the ceasefire, it would be the basis for negotiations that could start immediately.
• The leaders will continue to defend Ukraine and ratchet up pressure on Russia.
• Almost all members of the European Union and a big coalition of the willing are determined to impose sanctions if the initiative fails.
• They will continue to provide military and financial support to Ukraine.
• They will also work on reconstruction and securing Ukraine's future for the longer term.

9. Operational Plans and Commitments

• The leaders are discussing operational plans and making concrete commitments of support across land, air, and sea.
• The UK is leading work to support the resumption of flights into Ukraine once a ceasefire is achieved.
• They are building the framework for peace in Ukraine to support a better future for the Ukrainian people.

10. Conclusion

The European leaders, with the backing of the US, are demanding an unconditional 30-day ceasefire from Russia, aiming to pave the way for lasting peace in Ukraine. They are emphasizing their unity, condemning Russian aggression, and preparing to increase pressure on Russia if it refuses to comply. The success of this initiative hinges on Russia's response and its willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations. The leaders are also focused on securing Ukraine's future through continued military and financial support, reconstruction efforts, and security guarantees.