Key Concepts
- Rare Earth Elements (REEs): A group of 17 metallic elements crucial for modern technology, with China currently dominating global processing and manufacturing.
- Critical Minerals: Minerals deemed essential for economic and national security, facing potential supply chain vulnerabilities.
- CHIPS Program: A US government initiative providing funding for semiconductor and critical mineral industries.
- PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity): A financing method where private investors purchase shares of a public company.
- Resource Nationalism: The trend of countries prioritizing control over their natural resources.
- Telomeres: Protective caps on chromosomes, targeted by Maya Biotechnology’s cancer treatment.
- Vertical Integration: Controlling all stages of a supply chain, from mining to manufacturing.
- Foreign Direct Product Rule: A US export control regulation extending to products made outside the US using restricted technologies.
The Trump Administration’s Strategic Stock Investments & Critical Mineral Push
The Trump administration has undertaken a significant intervention in the critical mineral sector, marked by substantial investments in six companies, representing the largest federal intervention since World War II. This initiative is driven by concerns over China’s dominance in rare earth elements (REEs) and the need to bolster US national security and strategic industries.
USA Rare Earth (USAR) – The Latest & Largest Investment
The most recent and substantial investment is in USA Rare Earth (USAR), receiving a $1.6 billion package comprised of:
- $277 million: Proposed federal grants via the CHIPS program.
- $1.3 billion: Senior secured loans.
- 16.1 million shares: Issued to the Department of Commerce at $17.17 per share (a 25% discount).
- 17.6 million warrants: For additional shares at $17.17 per share.
- $1.5 billion: Raised through a PIPE transaction led by Inflection Point and other institutional investors at $21.50 per share.
This investment makes the US government USAR’s largest public shareholder, signaling a commitment to the company’s success. The market reacted positively, with shares experiencing a significant surge, though profit-taking is anticipated.
The Portfolio of Government-Backed Companies
The US government now holds equity stakes in the following companies:
- MP Materials (MP): $400 million investment (July 2025) for a 15% stake, with a 10-year price floor commitment. Focused on light rare earths.
- Intel (INTC): $8.9 billion (August 2025) converted from CHIPS Act grants, resulting in a 9.9% stake and warrants for an additional 5%. Aimed at preventing Intel’s foundry business from relocating abroad.
- US Corporation: A “golden share” granting permanent veto power over relocation or facility closures (June 2025).
- Lithium Americas (LAC): 5% stake in the company and 5% in the Thacker Pass mine (October 2025), restructuring a $2.26 billion DOE loan. Thacker Pass is the largest lithium operation in the Western Hemisphere.
- Triology Metals (TMQ): $35.6 million deal for a 10% stake plus warrants for 7.5% more (October 2025), supporting the Amler mining district in Alaska.
- USA Rare Earth (USAR): $1.6 billion package for a 10% stake (December 2025), the largest critical minerals investment since WWII.
These investments generally see an initial stock price increase followed by profit-taking, but remain above pre-deal prices, demonstrating the value of government backing.
The Geopolitical Context: China’s Dominance & US Response
China currently controls over 90% of global rare earth processing and 94% of permanent magnet manufacturing. This dominance is considered a national security risk, as REEs are essential for numerous critical technologies, including:
- Electric vehicle motors
- Wind turbines
- Fighter jets
- Missile guidance systems
- Smartphones
- AI data center hardware
China has demonstrated a willingness to weaponize this control, implementing export controls on seven heavy REEs in April 2025, causing European prices to surge sixfold and disrupting manufacturing. Further escalation in October 2025 included adding five more elements to the list and introducing extraterritorial controls and a 50% ownership rule targeting military end-users. This has prompted a US response focused on building a domestic supply chain.
Why USAR? Heavy Rare Earths & Vertical Integration
USAR was selected due to its potential to address the critical shortage of heavy rare earths, essential for advanced military equipment like F-35 fighter jets. USAR’s Round Top deposit in West Texas is the largest known US source of heavy REEs, with reserves estimated to last over a century. Crucially, the deposit also contains lithium, gallium, and other valuable minerals, enhancing its profitability.
USAR is uniquely positioned as it is building a fully integrated operation:
- Mining in Texas
- Processing in Colorado
- Magnet manufacturing in Oklahoma
This “mine-to-magnet” approach, entirely on American soil, distinguishes USAR from other US companies and aligns with the government’s goal of establishing a secure, independent supply chain.
Potential Next Targets & Investment Playbook
Investors are anticipating further government investments, focusing on small-cap companies in the rare earth and critical mineral segments. Potential candidates include:
- Neo Corp Developments (NB): Focuses on niobium, scandium, titanium, and rare earths, all currently lacking domestic US production.
- Energy Fuels (UU): Focuses on uranium and rare earth processing, with pending DOE loan applications.
- Ramico Resources (METC): Extracts rare earths from coal waste using a unique technology.
- Perpetual Resources (PPTA): Owns the Stite Gold project in Idaho, one of only two domestic antimony deposits.
- Critical Metals Corp (CRML): Has projects in Greenland, aligning with potential future US interests.
The key characteristics of potential targets include strategic importance, a focus on critical minerals, and the potential for vertical integration.
Macro Themes Driving the Shift
Four overarching themes are driving this shift in US policy:
- Resource Nationalism: A global trend of countries securing control over their critical resources.
- Supply Chain Reshoring: The need to rebuild domestic supply chains after disruptions caused by reliance on China.
- Defense Industrial Base Revival: Increased defense spending and a focus on securing critical minerals for military applications.
- Mine-to-Magnet Premium: Companies controlling the entire supply chain are commanding higher valuations.
Sponsored Segment: Maya Biotechnology (MAYA)
Maya Biotechnology (MAYA) is developing a first-in-class cancer treatment targeting telomeres, the protective caps on chromosomes exploited by cancer cells. Their lead drug candidate is being tested in patients with advanced lung cancer who have exhausted other treatment options.
- Market Opportunity: Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) represents a $50-66 billion market.
- Mechanism of Action: The drug candidate disrupts telomere function, inducing cancer cell death and stimulating an immune response.
- Clinical Data: Phase 2 trials show progression-free survival of 5.6 months, compared to the 2.5-month standard of care. Estimated overall survival is 17.8 months.
- Phase 3 Trial: A pivotal Phase 3 trial (FO 104) is underway, comparing the drug candidate plus a checkpoint inhibitor to chemotherapy.
- FDA Designation & Funding: Received Fast Track designation from the FDA and a $2.3 million NIH grant.
- Leadership & Ownership: CEO Dr. Vlad Vtok has been actively purchasing shares, and insiders hold approximately 13% of the company.
Risks: Drug development is inherently risky. However, Maya’s novel approach, promising early data, and strong insider ownership present a potentially compelling investment opportunity.
Disclaimer: Always conduct thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions. This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
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