Breaking down the Trump administration's unusual diplomacy to end the Russia-Ukraine war

Key Concepts:

• Ukraine-Russia War Negotiations
• US Diplomatic Involvement (Trump Administration)
• Security Guarantees for Ukraine
• Frozen Russian Assets
• Return of Kidnapped Ukrainian Children
• Unconventional Diplomacy

Current State of Negotiations

There is currently no active, multilateral diplomacy with all parties at the same table regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia, under Vladimir Putin, has not yet officially accepted a term sheet that outlines potential concessions Ukraine might offer. Steve Wickoff, the US envoy, is scheduled to present the latest proposal to Russia next week, but it remains uncertain if Russia will make any concessions. This is further complicated by Russia's continued military operations, with attacks occurring overnight, indicating a focus on pressing its advantage on the battlefield. The Trump administration is operating under the assumption that Russia could potentially win the war or at least seize control of eastern Ukraine.

Unusual Diplomatic Approach

The current diplomatic efforts are characterized as "head-snapping diplomacy" and are highly unusual. Unlike traditional diplomatic processes, key figures involved are not career diplomats.

• US Side: Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, closely aligned with Vice President Vance, is discussing security guarantees with Ukraine. Steve Wickoff, a longtime Trump associate with a background in real estate, is also involved. Jared Kushner, who is not currently employed by the US government, is reportedly working on the Russian end of the negotiations.
• Lack of Coordinated Effort: Professional diplomats and the Secretary of State are reportedly struggling to understand the dynamics within the Trump inner circle regarding these efforts. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been involved in a limited capacity, flying to Geneva over the weekend. Typically, the National Security Advisor and Secretary of State would be responsible for coordinating such initiatives.

Shifting Expectations and Delays

Recent developments have led to a shift in expectations regarding a potential agreement.

• Thanksgiving Deadline: An earlier expectation that Ukrainian President Zelensky might visit the US and an agreement could be reached by Thanksgiving has disappeared.
• President Trump's Statement: President Trump posted on social media stating he was "not ready to meet with Zalinsky yet," which contributed to the dissolution of the Thanksgiving deadline.
• Parallel Tracks: The current approach involves keeping "trains moving along on these parallel tracks," suggesting a fragmented and uncoordinated process.

Ukrainian Demands and European Support

Ukrainian President Zelensky has outlined specific demands and is receiving support from European officials.

• Zelensky's Stance: President Zelensky has expressed readiness to talk with President Trump and travel for discussions.
• Ukrainian Demands: Zelensky is seeking access to frozen Russian funds in European bank accounts and the return of kidnapped Ukrainian children.
• European Support: European officials are reportedly closing ranks around President Zelensky to help him push back and secure more security guarantees from the United States.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Ukrainian Mistrust of Russia: A Ukrainian member of parliament expressed a lack of trust in Russia, believing that individuals involved in negotiations are "very pro-Russian" and that Russia does not adhere to agreements.
• US Assessment of Russian Advantage: The Trump administration is assessing that Russia could continue the war and potentially achieve victory, at least in eastern Ukraine.
• Unconventional Diplomacy: The reliance on individuals outside traditional diplomatic roles highlights an unconventional approach to conflict resolution.

Conclusion

The negotiations surrounding the Ukraine-Russia war are in an unusual and complex state. While President Trump has indicated that only a few points of disagreement remain, the Kremlin is tempering expectations. The diplomatic process is characterized by a lack of direct engagement between all parties, unconventional participants, and a shifting timeline. Ukraine's demands for security guarantees, access to frozen assets, and the return of kidnapped children remain central, with European nations offering support. The US administration's assessment of Russia's potential battlefield advantage appears to be influencing its approach. The overall situation underscores the difficulty of achieving a resolution, even with trusted individuals involved.