Blockade in Bamako: Al Qaeda-linked group tightens grip on Mali’s capital

Key Concepts:

• JNIM (Jamat Nos Islamus)
• Al-Qaeda affiliation
• Fuel blockade in Bamako
• Malian coup (2021)
• French troop withdrawal
• Wagner Group / Africa Corps
• Regional security threat
• JNIM's strategy of making the population desperate
• Potential for power-sharing negotiations

JNIM's Siege of Bamako and its Ramifications

Satellite imagery depicts extensive queues of vehicles at petrol stations in Bamako, the Malian capital, illustrating the severe fuel shortage. This crisis is a direct consequence of the armed group JNIM (Jamat Nos Islamus), which pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2017, initiating a blockade of fuel shipments into the city since early September.

Impact on Daily Life and International Relations

The fuel shortage has had a devastating impact on Bamako. Schools and businesses have been forced to close, and numerous humanitarian and commercial flights have been cancelled. The situation has become so dire that the US and France have issued advisories urging their nationals to depart Mali as swiftly as possible. The capital is frequently plunged into darkness after sunset, highlighting the breakdown of essential services.

Mali's Broader Instability and Shifting Alliances

Mali has a long history of instability, with jihadist groups, including JNIM, controlling significant portions of the north and center of the country. The recent expansion of their influence to the south and the current siege of the capital represent a significant escalation. Mali and its neighboring countries have been engaged in a protracted struggle against al-Qaeda and ISIL-affiliated groups for over two decades, but the current situation marks a further deterioration.

The Malian military leadership, which seized power in a 2021 coup with promises of restoring security, has seen its efforts falter. They previously expelled French troops after a nine-year security operation by the former colonial power, widely perceived as unsuccessful. Instead, Mali's generals opted for partnerships, first with the Russian mercenary group Wagner and now with the Kremlin's rebranded Africa Corps. However, these alliances have also failed to secure the country.

Economic Potential vs. Current Reality

Despite possessing substantial natural resources, including gold, uranium, iron ore, and potential rare earth elements, Mali remains one of the world's poorest nations. This underdevelopment is exacerbated by the ongoing conflict and insecurity.

JNIM's Strength and Regional Threat

JNIM is estimated to command approximately 6,000 fighters across the Sahel region. The group has successfully cultivated popular support in large areas of Mali and Burkina Faso. Experts warn that JNIM poses a significant regional threat to coastal nations such as Benin, Togo, and Ghana.

JNIM's Strategic Objectives

While JNIM's capacity to directly capture the capital with its current numbers (estimated to be a few thousand fighters) is questioned, their strategy appears to be focused on creating widespread misery and desperation among the population. The objective, according to some analyses, is to incite public discontent against the government, potentially leading to a new regime that might then be amenable to negotiating a power-sharing agreement with the jihadist group. As Charles Stratford of Al Jazeera notes, "What they want to do is now to make people miserable, desperate. So they accept the giatist protest against the government and maybe you know bring a new regime that might then negotiate with the giist. That that might be the goal."

Broader Implications for the Sahel

The tightening grip of JNIM around Bamako, leading to its economic paralysis, carries immense and worrying implications for regional governments and their international partners. Over two decades of violence, including bombings, murders, and kidnappings, have consistently deprived Mali and the wider Sahel region of much-needed investment, hindering any potential escape from poverty for the estimated 150 million people living in the region.